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Exchange Rate Unification not Happening Soon, Say Analysts

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  • Exchange Rate Unification not Happening Soon, Say Analysts

The possibility of having a single exchange rate for the naira is not likely to be achieved any time soon, analysts at FBN Quest, the research arm of FBN Holdings have said.

Nigeria has at least, four exchange rates, which include one for Muslim pilgrims going to Saudi Arabia, another for oil marketers, rate for foreign travel and school fees, in addition to the official market rate.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has continually insisted that to ensure further stability in the foreign exchange market, Nigeria needed to unify her exchange rates. Nigeria had battled a currency crisis brought about by low oil prices, which tipped her economy into recession and created chronic dollar shortages.

According to a report released ahead of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) July meeting slated for next week, FBN Quest analysts said although one member of the committee called for the apex bank to pursue exchange rate convergence at different market segments, the possibility of realising the goal is slim.

“On the naira exchange rate, one member called for the CBN to pursue the convergence of the different segments of the market. Such a trend is not evident on NAFEX or from the CBN’s rate for preferential transactions (N305) although it could be discerned from the rates at the CBN’s wholesale auctions. We still do not see the unification of rates anytime soon,” they said.

The report titled: ‘A restatement of Caution’, analysed the personal statements of MPC members released last week by the apex bank and gave their verdict.

“The CBN last week released the personal statements arising from the last meeting of the monetary policy committee (MPC) in late May. Eight members of the committee voted for no change, and one for a hike in the policy rate of 50 basis points. We would have welcomed the start of easing but accept that the latest statements suggest otherwise. Their main concerns are that the macro-economy will be distorted by fiscal challenges and that the offshore portfolio community will rush for the door marked exit en masse,” the report stated.

On inflation, one member acknowledged that the policy rate was finally positive in real terms. Another noted that staff forecasts pointed to single-digit core inflation year-on-year in June.

“Those same forecasts see upward trending pressures in second half of 2018, which the committee explains in the context of fiscal developments: the late passage of the 2018 budget (signed off since the committee met), the expansionary nature of the N9.12 trillion budget, and the determination of the Federal Government of Nigeria to disburse undrawn capital releases from the 2017 budget before moving onto those projected for 2018. This is the single largest risk identified in the statements. Additionally, several members made the point that politicians generally inject cash into the economy ahead of Nigerian elections.

“In our view the MPC’s fears are overstated because projected FGN spending in 2018 is no more than eight per cent of forecast Gross Domestic Product, and, based on precedent and the late passage of the budget, is most unlikely to be released in full.As a broader point, we have examined the data for the run-up to the 2011 and 2015 elections, and have not found macro turmoil in the series for money supply, inflation and the public finances.”

One member was of the view that contractors should see the settlement of 40 per cent to 70 per cent of their arrears within the 2018 budget.

“Our expectation is that because of its stated concerns, the MPC will again make no change when it meets next week. Almost out of hope, however, we still see a rate cut by end-2018 and point to the statement in the communique that it would be prudent to analyse the national accounts for second in detail and assess the Federal Government of Nigeria’s fiscal stance once the 2018 budget had been approved before revising its own stance,”the report added.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Dry Cleaners Set to Tap into $165 Billion Global Cleaning Industry

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The Fabric Professionals and Dry Cleaners Association of Nigeria (FPDA) is gearing up to host the “Clean Show Africa 2024” conference.

This conference aims to expose over 25,000 dry cleaners to the vast opportunities present in the global cleaning and hygiene industry, valued at a staggering $165 billion.

Scheduled to take place on May 28–29, 2024, in Lagos, the event is themed “Positioning Africa’s fabric and hygiene industry for excellence.”

It comes at a crucial time when Nigeria’s dry cleaning industry is experiencing steady growth, with projections indicating a 6.4% annual increase over the next decade.

According to Enibikun Adebayo, Chairman of FPDA, Nigeria’s dry cleaning industry was valued at $8.4 million in 2019.

However, this figure is expected to rise significantly, presenting a ripe opportunity for stakeholders to tap into.

Adebayo emphasized the importance of collaboration within the industry to fully leverage its potential.

“A year ago, we launched FPDA of Nigeria. We are also using the platform to educate our members to be better professionals,” stated Adebayo, highlighting the association’s commitment to enhancing professionalism and standards within the sector.

The conference will shine a spotlight on women in the dry cleaning business, recognizing their pivotal role in driving the industry forward. Reports have shown that dry cleaning businesses are often better managed by women, and the event aims to provide them with the necessary support and resources to thrive.

Ruth Okunnuga, Managing Director of Wasche Paint Nigeria, expressed the need to revolutionize Nigeria’s dry cleaning and laundry industry, emphasizing the lack of proper structure and investment.

She stressed the importance of data collection for effective planning and growth within the sector.

Joseph Oru, Managing Director of Zenith Exhibition, highlighted the conference’s objective of engaging the Federal Government to establish training institutions for dry cleaners. Such institutions would play a crucial role in equipping professionals with the skills and knowledge needed to meet global standards.

As Nigeria’s dry cleaning industry prepares to tap into the vast opportunities offered by the global cleaning market, the Clean Show Africa 2024 conference stands as a pivotal platform for collaboration, innovation, and growth within the sector.

With a focus on excellence and professionalism, stakeholders aim to position Nigeria as a key player in the dynamic and lucrative cleaning and hygiene industry.

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Nigeria-Taiwan Commerce Falls to $500m in 2023

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The Chief of Mission to the Taiwanese Government in Nigeria, Andy Liu, has said that the trade relations between Nigeria and Taiwan drop to $500 million in 2023 from $1 billion in 2021.

Liu made these comments during the 2024 Taiwan Business Forum held in Lagos.

According to Liu, Nigeria’s status as a net exporter of agricultural products, particularly sesame seeds has historically fueled the trade between the two nations.

However, the peak in trade experienced in 2021, buoyed by increased demand for Nigerian agricultural goods, notably declined in subsequent years.

“The highest peak of trade reached about $1 billion in 2021. It was the peak of COVID-19, with Nigerians enjoying surplus trading with Taiwan. We imported more of Nigeria’s agricultural products, such as sesame, aside from oil-related products. In 2021, we had a huge demand for agricultural products for our food processing industries,” Liu stated.

However, the trade dynamics shifted in the following years, leading to a significant decline in trade volume.

Liu attributed this decline to a normalization of demand following the peak in 2021, resulting in a reduction in trade value to $500 million by 2023.

Despite this decrease, Liu remained optimistic about the future trajectory of trade relations between the two countries.

“We might see some level of increase in the near future,” Liu enthused, highlighting Nigeria’s continued significance as a destination for Taiwanese businesses.

In addition to discussing trade volume, Liu addressed the issue of counterfeiting and piracy, which has affected Taiwanese products globally.

He said the Taiwanese government is working to combat this challenge by showcasing the quality of Taiwanese products and providing after-sale services.

“We have been having our delegates visit the world to prove that we are victims of piracy, but we are going to use the platform to show that we have good and quality products to let the world know who the true providers of these quality goods are,” Liu affirmed.

The President of Globe Industries Corporation, David Hwang, echoed concerns about counterfeit products, attributing the decline in profit margins to the influx of counterfeit goods from China.

Hwang emphasized the need for partnerships to address this issue and foster mutually beneficial trade relations.

Responding to the developments, the Director-General of the Nigerian Association of Chambers of Commerce, Industry, Mines, and Agriculture (NACCIMA), Sola Obadimu, commended the Taiwanese focus on African businesses and the quality of their products.

He pledged NACCIMA’s continued collaboration with Taiwanese companies to drive business growth for both nations.

As Nigeria and Taiwan navigate the challenges posed by fluctuating trade volumes and counterfeit goods, stakeholders remain committed to fostering resilient and mutually beneficial economic ties.

The 2024 Taiwan Business Forum served as a platform for dialogue and collaboration, laying the groundwork for future cooperation between the two nations.

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Nigeria Advances Plans for Regional Maritime Development Bank

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Nigeria is making significant strides in bolstering its maritime sector with the advancement of plans for the establishment of a Regional Maritime Development Bank (RMDB).

This initiative, spearheaded by the Federal Government, is poised to inject vitality into the region’s maritime industry and stimulate economic growth across West and Central Africa.

The Director of the Maritime Safety and Security Department in the Ministry of Marine and Blue Economy, Babatunde Bombata, revealed the latest developments during a stakeholders meeting in Lagos organized by the ministry.

He said the RMDB would play a pivotal role in fostering robust maritime infrastructure, facilitating vessel acquisition, and promoting human capacity development, among other strategic objectives.

With an envisaged capital base of $1 billion, RMDB is set to become a pivotal financial institution in the region.

Nigeria, which will host the bank’s headquarters, is slated to have the highest share of 12 percent among the member states of the Maritime Organization of West and Central Africa (MOWCA).

This underscores Nigeria’s commitment to driving maritime excellence and fostering regional cooperation.

The bank’s establishment reflects a collaborative effort between the public and private sectors, with MOWCA states holding a 51 percent shareholding and institutional investors owning the remaining 49 percent.

This hybrid model ensures a balanced governance structure that prioritizes the interests of all stakeholders while fostering transparency and accountability.

In addition to providing vital funding for port infrastructure, vessel acquisition, and human capacity development, the RMDB will serve as a catalyst for indigenous shipowners, enabling them to access financing at favorable terms.

By empowering local stakeholders, the bank aims to stimulate economic activity, create employment opportunities, and enhance the competitiveness of the region’s maritime sector on the global stage.

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