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FG, States Grow External Debt by 114% Under Buhari

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Naira - Investors King
  • FG, States Grow External Debt by 114% Under Buhari

The Federal Government and the 36 states of the federation as well as the Federal Capital Territory grew the country’s external loan commitments from $10.32bn in June 2015 to $22.07bn in March 2018, investigation has shown.

This reflects an increase of $11.76bn or 113.94 per cent growth in the country’s external debt within 33 months. The period is within the presidency of Muhammadu Buhari, as he took over the reins of government on May 29, 2015.

In naira terms, statistics obtained from the Debt Management Office in Abuja on Monday showed that the country’s external loans rose from N2.03tn as of June 31, 2015 to N6.75tn as of March 31, 2018. This reflects an increase of 232.51 per cent.

The difference, when the external debt is denominated in naira, reflects the beating that the local currency has taken since 2014 following the dwindling of the nation’s capacity to accumulate foreign currencies as a result of the steep fall in the price of crude oil, the main foreign exchange earner for the country.

The domestic debt of the country rose from N10.09tn as of June 2015 to N15.96tn as of March 2018. This reflects an increase of N5.87tn or 58.23 per cent within the period of analysis.

Taken together, the country’s public debt rose from N12.12tn as of June 31, 2015 to N22.71tn as of March 31, 2018. This reflects a difference of N10.59tn or a percentage increase of 87.37 per cent within a period of 33 months.

Broken down, the Federal Government component of the domestic loans stood at N12.58tn, while the states’ component stood at N3.38tn as of March 2018.

The increasing percentage of the external loans is a reflection of the country’s current debt management strategy, which targets to raise the debt ratio to 40 per cent external and 60 per cent local.

As of June 2015, the ratio stood at 16.77 per cent for external and 83.23 per cent for domestic. As of March 2018, it stood at 27.71 per cent external and 72.29 per cent domestic. Currently, there are ongoing foreign loans deals and negotiations that can bring the nation nearer to the 40 per cent target.

The country’s Debt Management Strategy 2016–2019 made a case for an increase in external financing with a view to rebalancing the public debt portfolio in favour of long-term external financing in order to reduce the debt service cost and lengthen the maturity profile.

In the document, the DMO stated, “To achieve a significant reduction in cost would require that the government accesses relatively cheaper long-term external financing in such a way that it first maximises the available funds from the concessional and semi-concessional sources, taking into account what may be readily available within a given period, after which other external sources would be accessed.

“Further lengthening of the maturity profile of the domestic debt portfolio through reduction in the issuance of new short-dated debt instruments or refinancing of maturing NTBs with external financing or both.

“Although the impact on cost of the introduction of new debt instruments into the domestic debt market is expected to be relatively small, the impact on maturity profile of total domestic debt could be significant; hence, reducing the risk of bunching, roll-over risk, and the associated debt servicing costs.”

The Federal Government had in 2017 borrowed from the international capital market to refinance $3bn maturing domestic debts as part of its overall debt management strategy of reducing debt service costs.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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FG Acknowledges Labour’s Protest, Assures Continued Dialogue

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Power - Investors King

The Federal Government through the Ministry of Power has acknowledged the organised Labour request for a reduction in electric tariff.

The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) and Trade Union Congress (TUC) had picketed offices of the National Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) and Distribution Companies nationwide over the hike in electricity tariff.

The unions had described the upward review, demanding outright cancellation.

Addressing State House correspondents after the Federal Executive Council (FEC) meeting on Tuesday, Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, said labour had the right to protest.

“We cannot stop them from organizing peaceful protest or laying down their demands. Let me make that clear. President Bola Tinubu’s administration is also a listening government.”

“We have heard their demands, we’re going to look at it, we’ll make further engagements and I believe we’re going to reach a peaceful resolution with the labor because no government can succeed without the cooperation, collaboration and partnership with the Labour unions. So we welcome the peaceful protest and I’m happy that it was not a violent protest. They’ve made their positions known and government has taken in their demands and we’re looking at it.

“But one thing that I want to state here is from the statistics of those affected by the hike in tariff, the people on the road yesterday, who embarked on the peaceful protests, more than 95% of them are not affected by the increase in the tariff of electricity. They still enjoy almost 70% government subsidy in the tariff they pay because the average costs of generating, transmitting and distributing electricity is not less than N180 today.

“A lot of them are paying below N60 so they still enjoy government’s subsidy. So when they say we should reverse the recently increased tariff, sincerely it’s not affecting them. That’s one position.

“My appeal again is that they should please not derail or distract our transformation plan for the industry. We have a clearly documented reform roadmap to take us to our desired destination, where we’re going to have reliable, functional, cost-effective and affordable electricity in Nigeria. It cannot be achieved overnight because this is a decay of almost 60 years, which we are trying to correct.”

He said there was the need for sacrifice from everybody, “from the government’s side, from the people’s side, from the private sector side. So we must bear this sacrifice for us to have a permanent gain”.

“I don’t want us to go back to the situation we were in February and March, where we had very low generation. We all felt the impact of this whereby electricity supply was very low and every household, every company, every institution, felt it. From the little reform that we’ve embarked upon since the beginning of April, we have seen the impact that electricity has improved and it can only get better.”

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Nigeria, China Collaborate to Bridge $18 Billion Trade Gap Through Agricultural Exports

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In a concerted effort to address the $18 billion trade deficit between Nigeria and China, both nations have embarked on a collaborative endeavor aimed at bolstering agricultural exports from Nigeria to China.

This strategic partnership, heralded as a landmark initiative in bilateral trade relations, seeks to narrow the trade gap and foster more balanced economic exchanges between the two countries.

The Executive Director of the Nigerian Export Promotion Council (NEPC), Nonye Ayeni, revealed this collaboration during a joint meeting between the Council and the Department of Commerce of Hunan province, China, held in Abuja on Monday.

Addressing the trade imbalance, Ayeni said collaborative efforts will help close the gap and stimulate more equitable trade relations between the two nations.

With Nigeria importing approximately $20.4 billion worth of goods from China, while its exports to China stood at around $2 billion, representing a $18 billion in trade deficit.

This significant imbalance has prompted officials from both countries to strategize on how to rebalance trade dynamics and promote mutually beneficial economic exchanges.

The collaborative effort between Nigeria and China focuses on leveraging the vast potential of Nigeria’s agricultural sector to expand export opportunities to the Chinese market.

Ayeni highlighted Nigeria’s abundant supply of over 1,000 exportable products, emphasizing the need to identify and promote the top 20 products with high demand in global markets, particularly in China.

“We have over 1,000 products in large quantities, and we expect that the collaboration will help us improve. The NEPC is focused on a 12-18 month target, focusing on the top 20 products based on global demand in the markets in which China is a top destination,” Ayeni explained, outlining the strategic objectives of the collaboration.

The initiative not only aims to reduce the trade deficit but also seeks to capitalize on China’s growing appetite for agricultural products. Nigeria, with its diverse agricultural landscape, sees an opportunity to expand its export market and capitalize on China’s increasing demand for agricultural imports.

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IMF Urges Nigeria to End Fuel and Electricity Subsidies

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In a recent report titled “Nigeria: 2024 Article IV Consultation,” the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has advised the Nigerian government to terminate all forms of fuel and electricity subsidies, arguing that they predominantly benefit the wealthy rather than the intended vulnerable population.

The IMF’s recommendation comes amidst Nigeria’s struggle with record-high inflation and economic challenges exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic.

The report highlights the inefficiency and ineffectiveness of subsidies, noting that they are costly and poorly targeted.

According to the IMF, higher-income groups tend to benefit more from these subsidies, resulting in a misallocation of resources. With pump prices and electricity tariffs currently below cost-recovery levels, subsidy costs are projected to increase significantly, reaching up to three percent of the gross domestic product (GDP) in 2024.

The IMF suggests that once Nigeria’s social protection schemes are enhanced and inflation is brought under control, subsidies should be phased out.

The government’s social intervention scheme, developed with support from the World Bank, aims to provide targeted support to vulnerable households, potentially benefiting around 15 million households or 60 million Nigerians.

However, concerns persist regarding the removal of subsidies, particularly in light of the recent announcement of an increase in electricity tariffs by the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC).

While the government has taken steps to reduce subsidies, including the removal of the costly petrol subsidy, there are lingering challenges in fully implementing these reforms.

Nigeria’s fiscal deficit is projected to be higher than anticipated, according to the IMF staff’s analysis.

The persistence of fuel and electricity subsidies is expected to contribute to this fiscal imbalance, along with lower oil and gas revenue projections and higher interest costs.

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