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Forex Weekly Outlook July 2-6

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U.S dollar - Investors King
  • Forex Weekly Outlook July 2-6

Trade tensions between the US and other nations continued to hurt market sentiment as the US insisted on additional trade tariffs on imported goods from China, Canada, the European Union, and presently pushing allies to stop the importation of Iranian crude oil by November 4th, leading to increased market uncertainty across both emerging and developed markets.

Trade tensions coupled with economic fundamentals have becomeĀ key factors in projecting possible market direction in recent months, therefore, both will be used to broaden forex outlook ahead of unemployment data this week.

EURUSD

The US dollar gained on strong economic fundamentals and progressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, however, lower than expected economic growth rate and slowing consumer spending despite tax cuts weighed on US dollar outlook against the Euro currency last week.

On Friday, the Euro jumped 0.83 percent against the US dollar following an agreement reached by the European Union leaders on immigration control and better than expected Consumer Price Index ‘estimate’ released for the month of June. The agreement is now expected to put an end to the uncertainty surrounding Angela Merkel coalition party and boost business sentiment in the Euro area.

EURUSDWeekly

The EURUSD closed as a bullish pinbar as shown above but below 1.1740 resistance levels. While the data pointed to a better business sentiment in the region, the growing trade war with the US and the possibility of the European Union buying long-dated bonds from next year to maintain record low interest rates will impact the Euro outlook against the greenback and expected to contain rebound below the 1.1852 key resistance that doubled as double top.

Therefore, a break above 1.1740 resistance level should attract enough sellers to reinforce the bearish move started in February towards the ascending channel, a sustained break of that level should open up 1.1398 support.

Please note that a positive Fed report due on Thursday will further strengthen the US dollar outlook against the Euro while a weaker than expected unemployment number may temporarily weigh on EURUSD outlook.

USDCHF

The Swiss Franc gained across the board on Friday after Swiss Finance Minister Ueli Maurer said the Swiss franc-euro rate has normalised and is not a problem for the exports dependent nation. But while the currency surged against the US dollar, it formed an evening star pattern as shown below. Indicating a possible continuation below the 0.9900 support level.

USDCHFDaily

Despite the strong US dollar, the uncertainty surrounding trade war between nations is likely to increase demand for haven currencies like Swiss Franc going forward. Hence, the reason USDCHF is expected to extend downward to 0.9819 support levels on aĀ sustained break of 0.9900 support.

AUDJPY

For aĀ similar reason, the Japanese Yen may get stronger as the rush for haven currencies increases. Also, the Australian dollar is likely to be weighed upon by slowing Chinese economic growth, its largest trading partner, and the ongoing trade war.

Likewise, growing household debt and sluggish wage growth amid rising job creation are hurting Australian retail sales and the economy at large.

AUDJPYWeekly

Therefore, despite the pair closing as a bullish pinbar last week, a close above 83.22 resistance level is needed to validate bullish continuation. Otherwise, the trade war, new ‘steel’ import policy in China and global uncertainty will further push AUDJPY below the ascending channel. The reason I will be treating the pinbar as a temporary rebound and will expect a close below the 81.18 support level to open up 80.44 support.

GBPUSD

The pound remained unattractive below the 1.3357 resistance level, and with the uncertainty surrounding the UK economy ahead of Brexit. I am expecting a retest of 1.3100 support level as long as price remained below the 1.3357 resistance under the ascending channel. Especially with the renewed interest in the US dollar.

GBPUSDWeekly

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Naira

Black Market Dollar (USD) to Naira (NGN) Exchange Rate Today 25th July 2024

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Naira Exchange Rates - Investors King

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of July 25th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ā‚¦1,595.

Recent data from Bureau De Change (BDC) reveals that buyers in the Lagos Parallel Market purchased a dollar for ā‚¦1,580 and sold it at ā‚¦1,570 on Wednesday, July 24th, 2024.

This indicates a decline in the Naira exchange rate value when compared to today’s rate.

The black market rate plays a crucial role for investors and participants, offering a real-time reflection of currency dynamics outside official or regulated exchange channels.

Monitoring these rates provides insights into the immediate value of the Naira against the dollar, guiding decision-making processes for individuals and businesses alike.

It’s important to note that while the black market offers valuable insights, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not officially recognize its existence.

The CBN advises individuals engaging in forex transactions to utilize official banking channels, emphasizing the importance of compliance with regulatory frameworks.

How much is dollar to naira today in the black market

For those navigating the currency exchange landscape, here are the latest figures for the black market exchange rate:

  • Buying Rate: ā‚¦1,595
  • Selling Rate: ā‚¦1,585

As economic conditions continue to evolve, staying informed about currency exchange rates empowers individuals to make informed financial decisions. While the black market provides immediate insights, adherence to regulatory guidelines ensures stability and transparency in forex transactions.

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Forex

IMTOs Drive 38.86% Rise in Foreign Exchange Inflows to $1.07bn in First Quarter of 2024

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Naira Exchange Rates - Investors King

Foreign exchange inflows into Nigeria surged by 38.86% to $1.07 billion in the first quarter of 2024, according to the Central Bank of Nigeriaā€™s (CBN) latest quarterly statistical bulletin.

This increase is attributed to the enhanced contributions from International Money Transfer Operators (IMTOs).

In January, IMTOs facilitated inflows amounting to $383.04 million. This figure dipped slightly to $322.83 million in February but rebounded to $363.70 million by March, this upward trend represents a 10.74% growth from the previous quarter of 2023.

The surge in forex inflows comes at a critical time for Nigeria, as the country continues to grapple with economic challenges, including inflation and a fluctuating naira.

The increased foreign exchange reserves are expected to provide much-needed stability to the naira and bolster Nigeriaā€™s economic standing in the global arena.

CBN Governor Dr. Olayemi Cardoso has underscored the importance of remittances from the diaspora, which constitute approximately 6% of Nigeria’s GDP.

The recent approval of licenses for 14 new IMTOs is seen as a strategic move to enhance competition and lower transaction costs, thereby encouraging more remittances to flow through formal channels.

“We recognize the significant role that IMTOs play in our foreign exchange ecosystem,” Dr. Cardoso remarked during a recent press briefing.

“The inflows weā€™ve seen are a testament to the effectiveness of our strategy to engage with these operators and ensure that more remittances are channeled through official avenues.”

The CBN has also introduced measures to facilitate IMTOs’ access to naira liquidity at the official window, aiming to streamline the settlement of diaspora remittances.

This initiative is part of the broader effort to stabilize the forex market and address the persistent challenges of foreign currency availability.

The bulletin also revealed that the inflow from IMTOs has contributed significantly to Nigeriaā€™s overall forex reserves, which are crucial for economic stability and growth.

Analysts suggest that the increased remittances will support the naira, providing relief amidst the countryā€™s ongoing economic adjustments.

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Forex

CBN Resumes Forex Sales as Naira Hits N1,570/$ at Parallel Market

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US Dollar - Investorsking.com

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has resumed the sale of foreign exchange to eligible Bureau De Change (BDC) operators.

The decision was after Naira dipped to N1,570 per dollar in the parallel market,

CBN announced that it would sell dollars to BDCs at a rate of N1,450 per dollar. This decision aims to address distortions in the retail end of the forex market and support the demand for invisible transactions.

Following the CBN’s intervention, the dollar, which recently traded as low as 1,640 per dollar, has shown signs of stabilization.

The apex bank’s action is expected to inject liquidity and restore confidence among market participants.

BDC operators have welcomed the move. Mohammed Magaji, an operator in Abuja, noted that the dollar was selling at 1,630 per dollar.

He emphasized the market’s volatile nature but expressed optimism about the CBN’s intervention.

Aminu Gwadebe, President of the Association of Bureau de Change Operators of Nigeria, attributed the naira’s decline to acute shortages, speculative activities, and increased demand due to recent duty waivers.

He praised the CBN’s action as a necessary step to alleviate market pressures.

The CBN’s efforts include selling $20,000 to each eligible BDC, with a directive to limit profit margins to 1.5% above the purchase rate.

This strategy aims to ensure that end-users receive fair rates and to curb inflationary pressures.

The CBN’s ongoing reforms seek to achieve a market-determined exchange rate for the naira. As the naira continues to navigate turbulent waters, stakeholders remain hopeful that these measures will lead to a more stable and liquid forex market.

Market analysts suggest that sustained interventions and increased access to foreign exchange could help reverse the naira’s downward trend.

The CBN’s actions demonstrate a commitment to tackling the challenges facing the foreign exchange market and supporting Nigeria’s economic stability.

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