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CBN to Maintain Forward Guidance as Policy Tool

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Godwin Emefiele CBN - Investors King
  • CBN to Maintain Forward Guidance as Policy Tool

Following the Senate’s refusal to consider President Muhammadu Buhari’s nominees to fill the vacancies in the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has decided to hold on to forward guidance to communicate its monetary policy intentions pending the resolution of the dispute between the legislature and the executive arms of government.

The suspension of confirmation of the nominees by the Senate has made it impossible for the MPC to form a quorum and could, therefore, not meet to take up its role of monetary policy guidance.

A senior central bank official disclosed this yesterday.

Forward guidance is a verbal assurance from a country’s central bank to the public about its intended monetary policy. It attempts to influence the financial decisions of households, businesses and investors by letting them know what to expect from interest rates (to the extent that the central bank can influence those rates). The central bank’s clear messages to the public are one tool for preventing surprises that might disrupt the markets and cause significant fluctuations in asset prices.

The first MPC meeting for 2018, which would have held last month did not hold. But in the absence of the meeting, the CBN had announced its decision to continue to retain the key monetary policy variables as decided by the MPC at its last meeting in November 2017.

The CBN source explained: “There would be forward guidance. The management of the central bank will continue to issue forward guidance.

“If you remember there was a time in this country when MPC wasn’t statutory, the economy was running, and the central bank was issuing forward guidance.

“So, there is no problem, the central bank will continue to issue forward guidance. I don’t think the emergency meeting will hold.”

Media reported last November that eight positions in the 12-member committee were vacant, making it impossible for the committee to form a quorum.

Media had also reported about a fortnight ago that the Senate was not budging on its resolve not to consider the MPC nominees.

The lawmakers had maintained that they would not confirm any nominee by the executive until the impasse regarding the nomination and non-confirmation of the acting chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), Mr. Ibrahim Magu, was resolved.

The lawmakers also said the Senate had resolved to seek a legal interpretation of a comment made by Vice-President Yemi Osinbajo that the position of the EFCC chairman did not require the confirmation of the Senate, as it was not specified in the constitution.

As a result of Osinbajo’s remark, the Senate had resolved to suspend the confirmation process for all nominees of the president not specifically mentioned in the 1999 Constitution, but are provided for in the establishment Acts of several agencies of the federal government such as the CBN, FIRS, NCC, and others.

Commenting on the decision by the CBN to issue forward guidance, the Director General of the West African Institute for Financial and Economic Management (WAIFEM), Prof. Akpan Ekpo, described it as a temporary arrangement, saying the central bank was in a dilemma.

Ekpo, who is a former MPC member added: “This so-called forward guidance is very temporary. It is an attempt to fill a yearning gap. But to me, it is not the best thing to do. But currently, the central bank cannot do anything, and you can’t blame the CBN for trying to find a way out.

“I wish this matter can be resolved. The stalemate is very sad. They are playing politics with the economy and it is very unfair. When you create uncertainty in the system, the foreign investors we are looking for may be discouraged. In most countries, the MPC is the engine room. If they cannot meet because of lack of quorum, it is very unfortunate.

“I thought the National Assembly should realise that they are not attacking President Muhammadu Buhari as a person, what they are doing is affecting the national economy.”

The CBN Governor, Mr. Godwin Emefiele, had last month announced that the benchmark monetary policy rate (MPR) was retained at 14 per cent, the cash reserve requirement at 22.5 per cent, liquidity ratio at 30 per cent, while the asymmetric corridor retained at +200 and -500 basis point around the MPR, as decided at the November meeting of the MPC.

He stressed that the central bank would remain proactive and vigilant in ensuring that macroeconomic stability was maintained.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Loans

Akinwumi Adesina Calls for Debt Transparency to Safeguard African Economic Growth

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Akinwumi Adesina

Amidst the backdrop of mounting concerns over Africa’s ballooning external debt, Akinwumi Adesina, the President of the African Development Bank (AfDB), has emphatically called for greater debt transparency to protect the continent’s economic growth trajectory.

In his address at the Semafor Africa Summit, held alongside the International Monetary Fund and World Bank 2024 Spring Meetings, Adesina highlighted the detrimental impact of non-transparent resource-backed loans on African economies.

He stressed that such loans not only complicate debt resolution but also jeopardize countries’ future growth prospects.

Adesina explained the urgent need for accountability and transparency in debt management, citing the continent’s debt burden of $824 billion as of 2021.

With countries dedicating a significant portion of their GDP to servicing these obligations, Adesina warned that the current trajectory could hinder Africa’s development efforts.

One of the key concerns raised by Adesina was the shift from concessional financing to more expensive and short-term commercial debt, particularly Eurobonds, which now constitute a substantial portion of Africa’s total debt.

He criticized the prevailing ‘Africa premium’ that raises borrowing costs for African countries despite their lower default rates compared to other regions.

Adesina called for a paradigm shift in the perception of risk associated with African investments, advocating for a more nuanced approach that reflects the continent’s economic potential.

He stated the importance of an orderly and predictable debt resolution framework, called for the expedited implementation of the G20 Common Framework.

The AfDB President also outlined various initiatives and instruments employed by the bank to mitigate risks and attract institutional investors, including partial credit guarantees and synthetic securitization.

He expressed optimism about Africa’s renewable energy sector and highlighted the Africa Investment Forum as a catalyst for large-scale investments in critical sectors.

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Banking Sector

UBA, Access Holdings, and FBN Holdings Lead Nigerian Banks in Electronic Banking Revenue

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UBA House Marina

United Bank for Africa (UBA) Plc, Access Holdings Plc, and FBN Holdings Plc have emerged as frontrunners in electronic banking revenue among the country’s top financial institutions.

Data revealed that these banks led the pack in income from electronic banking services throughout the 2023 fiscal year.

UBA reported the highest electronic banking income of  N125.5 billion in 2023, up from N78.9 billion recorded in the previous year.

Similarly, Access Holdings grew electronic banking revenue from N59.6 billion in the previous year to N101.6 billion in the year under review.

FBN Holdings also experienced an increase in electronic banking revenue from N55 billion in 2022 to N66 billion.

The rise in electronic banking revenue underscores the pivotal role played by these banks in facilitating digital financial transactions across Nigeria.

As the nation embraces digitalization and transitions towards cashless transactions, these banks have capitalized on the growing demand for electronic banking services.

Tesleemah Lateef, a bank analyst at Cordros Securities Limited, attributed the increase in electronic banking income to the surge in online transactions driven by the cashless policy implemented in the first quarter of 2023.

The policy incentivized individuals and businesses to conduct more transactions through digital channels, resulting in a substantial uptick in electronic banking revenue.

Furthermore, the combined revenue from electronic banking among the top 10 Nigerian banks surged to N427 billion from N309 billion, reflecting the industry’s robust growth trajectory in digital financial services.

The impressive performance of UBA, Access Holdings, and FBN Holdings underscores their strategic focus on leveraging technology to enhance customer experience and drive financial inclusion.

By investing in digital payment infrastructure and promoting digital payments among their customers, these banks have cemented their position as industry leaders in the rapidly evolving landscape of electronic banking in Nigeria.

As the Central Bank of Nigeria continues to promote digital payments and reduce the country’s dependence on cash, banks are poised to further capitalize on the opportunities presented by the digital economy.

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Loans

Nigeria’s $2.25 Billion Loan Request to Receive Final Approval from World Bank in June

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IMF - Investors King

Nigeria’s $2.25 billion loan request is expected to receive final approval from the World Bank in June.

The loan, consisting of $1.5 billion in Development Policy Financing and $750 million in Programme-for-Results Financing, aims to bolster Nigeria’s developmental efforts.

Finance Minister Wale Edun hailed the loan as a “free lunch,” highlighting its favorable terms, including a 40-year term, 10 years of moratorium, and a 1% interest rate.

Edun highlighted the loan’s quasi-grant nature, providing substantial financial support to Nigeria’s economic endeavors.

While the loan request awaits formal approval in June, Edun revealed that the World Bank’s board of directors had already greenlit the credit, currently undergoing processing.

The loan signifies a vote of confidence in Nigeria’s economic resilience and strategic response to global challenges, as showcased during the recent Spring Meetings.

Nigeria’s delegation, led by Edun, underscored the nation’s commitment to addressing economic obstacles and leveraging international partnerships for sustainable development.

With the impending approval of the $2.25 billion loan, Nigeria looks poised to embark on transformative initiatives, buoyed by crucial financial backing from the World Bank.

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