Connect with us

Markets

South African Stocks in Demand After Zuma Quits, Rand Soars

Published

on

New Rand Banknotes
  • South African Stocks in Demand After Zuma Quits, Rand Soars

South African stocks index rose as much as five per cent on Thursday, putting the main index on track for its biggest one-day gain in more than three years.

The currency remained on the front foot, soaring to its firmest since early 2015, in the wake of Zuma’s exit.

Analysts have, however, warned the rally faces serious obstacles ahead of a budget speech next Wednesday.

Zuma quit late on Wednesday, reluctantly heeding orders by the ruling African National Congress ( ANC ) to bring an end to a nine-year tenure punctuated by scandals, stagnant economic growth and policy uncertainty.

As at 1530 GMT, the blue chip Top-40 index surged four per cent to 52,665 points, pulling back from a high of 53,072 achieved earlier but still on course for its biggest one-day gain since Sept. 2015.

The broader All-share index was up by 3.72 per cent at 59,533 points.

“The big news is that Zuma has now resigned and that has created a lot of euphoria.

“South African incorporated, banks, retailers and the like are all looking sharply better as a result,” said Independent Securities’ trader Ryan Woods.

South African banks considered the barometer of both economic and political sentiment were a feature on the gainers’ list.

The banking index surged 5.8 per cent with Nedbank rising 5.37 per cent and rival FirstRand up 6.4 per cent.

Banks have largely borne the brunt of Zuma’s policy decisions that included the sacking of two respected finance ministers, Nhlanhla Nene and Pravin Gordhan.

That, along with a weak economy, contributed to sovereign credit ratings downgrades to junk by S&P Global Ratings and Fitch.

In reaction to Zuma’s resignation, ratings agency Moody’s said it was focused on the new leadership’s response to economic challenges. S&P Global Ratings said the leadership change would not immediately affect the credit status.

Cyril Ramaphosa, former chairman of African biggest telecoms operator MTN Group, was sworn in as president on Thursday.

Ramaphosa, who has vowed to fight corruption and revitalise the economy, is seen by business leaders and investors as well placed to turn around the economy.

South Africa’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is estimated to grow by less than one percent this year.

Another key issue facing the 65-year-old president is policy uncertainty in South Africa’s mining industry, an important economic engine, which has been fighting in court with Zuma’s mines minister, Mosebenzi Zwane, over an increase in black ownership targets.

But some analysts said that the former union leader’s to-do list is way too long to make an immediate impact.

In the foreign exchange market, the rand advanced to levels last seen in February 2015.

“The good gains the rand has made could be extended toward 11.55/dollar, and move toward 11.00/dollar baring any further credit rating downgrades for S.A. and a credit positive budget,” said Investec’s Chief Analyst Annabel Bishop in a note.

At 1515 GMT, the rand was at 11.6600 against the dollar, having reached a session-best of 11.6025 earlier per cent stronger than its New York overnight close and at levels last seen in Feb. 2015.

“The economy is coming off an extremely low base so there is good chance the optimism will be around for some time, but Ramaphosa has to very soon move from the honeymoon phase to the doing phase,” said Chief Executive of Canon Assets Management Adrian Saville.

Reuters/Nan

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

Continue Reading
Comments

Crude Oil

Brent Crude Falls to $84.12, WTI Rises to $80.19

Published

on

Brent crude oil - Investors King

In a cautious market, oil prices showed mixed movements in Asian trade on Tuesday.

Global benchmark Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, experienced a slight decline of 13 cents, or 0.15%, to settle at $84.12 per barrel.

Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil saw a modest increase of 14 cents, or 0.17% to $80.19 per barrel.

The recent fluctuations come after both benchmarks posted significant gains of around 2% on Monday, marking their highest closing prices since April.

The market’s attention has now shifted back to fundamental factors, which have exhibited signs of softness for some time.

Francisco Blanch, a commodity and derivatives strategist at Bank of America, noted in a client note that global crude oil inventories and refined product storage in key locations such as the United States and Singapore remain elevated.

“The oil market shifted its focus back to fundamentals, which have been soft for some time,” Blanch stated, highlighting the broader concerns about global demand growth.

Data from the first quarter of the year indicated a deceleration in global oil demand growth to 890,000 barrels per day year-on-year, with further slowing likely in the second quarter.

Also, according to the country’s statistics bureau, China’s oil refinery output fell by 1.8% year-on-year in May due to planned maintenance and higher crude costs.

Market participants are also keenly watching for further indications on interest rates and U.S. demand trends, with several U.S. Federal Reserve representatives scheduled to speak later on Tuesday.

Despite the mixed signals, some analysts remain optimistic about the impact of OPEC+ supply cuts.

Patricio Valdivieso, vice president and global lead of crude trading analysis at Rystad Energy, said, “The latest guidance provided by OPEC+, as well as their unchanged 2.25 million barrels per day demand growth outlook, signals a stagnation in oil supply growth for 2024 and an apparent downside risk to production in 2025.”

Valdivieso further noted the disconnect between OPEC+’s demand outlook and those of other agencies, making it challenging to adopt a fully bearish stance on the market.

This sentiment has been reinforced by recent investor behavior, with hedge funds and other money managers purchasing the equivalent of 80 million barrels in key petroleum futures and options contracts over the week ending June 11.

Support for the market has also come from a rebound in refining margins, particularly in Europe and Asia.

Sparta Commodities analyst Neil Crosby pointed out that refining margins at a typical complex refinery in Singapore averaged $3.60 a barrel for June so far, up from $2.66 a barrel in May.

As the market navigates these dynamics, the cautious optimism among investors and analysts suggests a period of continued volatility and adjustment, with fundamental factors and policy decisions playing pivotal roles in shaping future price movements.

Continue Reading

Energy

Dangote Refinery’s Power Production Dwarfs National Grid’s 11-Year Progress

Published

on

ossiomo

The stark contrast in power generation between Nigeria’s national grid and Dangote Refinery has come into sharp focus as Dangote Refinery generates twice the national power production.

Over the past eleven years, Nigeria has managed to add a mere 760 megawatts (MW) to its national grid, while the Dangote Refinery has outpaced this growth significantly with  1,500 MW in a much shorter timeframe.

For decades, Nigeria has grappled with chronic power shortages, an issue that has repeatedly dominated election campaigns and policy debates.

Data from the Nigeria Electricity System Operator revealed that power delivery from Generation Companies (Gencos) to Distribution Companies (Discos) via the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN) has seen only a modest increase.

From an average of 3,400 MW in November 2013, it has risen to 4,160 MW as of June 12, 2024, marking a 22 percent increase.

In stark contrast, the Dangote Refinery, which began construction in 2018, now produces 1,500 MW of power for its operations.

This significant output not only surpasses the national grid’s decade-long expansion but also emphasizes the private sector’s ability to address Nigeria’s power challenges more efficiently.

“We don’t put pressure on the grid. We produce about 1,500 megawatts of power for self-consumption,” stated Aliko Dangote at the Afreximbank Annual Meetings and AfriCaribbean Trade & Investment Forum in Nassau, The Bahamas.

This development underscores concerns regarding the slow pace of growth in Nigeria’s power sector despite substantial investments and an 11-year-old privatisation effort.

“The government and some operators in the sector may claim there has been some form of growth since 2013, but in actual terms, how many people are benefiting from the privatised power sector?” questioned Charles Akinbobola, a senior energy analyst at Sofidam Capital.

He added, “The challenge of the power sector has not entirely been the scarcity of funds. Several trillions of naira have been pumped into that industry. The sector has been plagued by the shortcomings of its managers.”

Comparatively, Nigeria’s power production capacity of 13,000 MW falls significantly short of South Africa’s 58,095 MW, despite having a similar-sized economy and a quarter of Nigeria’s population.

The ageing national grid, however, delivers only about 4,000 MW to over 200 million citizens—roughly the power consumption of Edinburgh’s 548,000 residents.

Other African nations have made more significant strides in addressing their power needs.

Egypt, for instance, added 28,229 MW to its national grid between December 2015 and December 2018, achieving a total installed capacity of 58,818 MW.

This was accomplished through a fast-track project and a substantial partnership with Siemens, adding 14,400 MW in just 2.5 years.

The sluggish growth of Nigeria’s power sector is not just a technical issue but a significant economic one. Rising energy costs and unreliable power supply have disrupted productive activities, forcing many factories to self-generate more than 14,000 MW of electricity.

According to the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria, member companies spent N639 billion on alternative energy sources between 2014 and 2021, further highlighting the inefficiencies within the public power supply system.

“The power sector’s inefficiencies cost consumers billions of naira and stifle economic growth,” noted Muda Yusuf, CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise. “There are issues of technical and commercial losses which are yet to be addressed. These inefficiencies are costs that consumers are compelled or expected to pay for as part of the cost recovery argument.”

The stark contrast in power generation between the Dangote Refinery and the national grid serves as a wake-up call for Nigeria’s power sector.

It underscores the urgent need for comprehensive reforms, better management, and increased investment to meet the growing energy demands of the nation’s burgeoning population.

Continue Reading

Crude Oil

Nigerian Oil Theft Escalates to 400,000 Barrels a Day, Exposing Systemic Corruption

Published

on

pipleline vandalisation

A recent report has revealed that Nigeria’s daily oil losses surged to 400,000 barrels as efforts to curb crude oil theft remain ineffective.

This escalation from 100,000 barrels per day in 2013 underscores the severe and worsening challenge facing the nation’s oil sector.

The report, produced by the public policy firm Nextier, is the result of several months of in-depth investigation.

It reveals a complex web of sophisticated networks involving powerful actors, foreign buyers, security personnel, transporters, and government officials.

This elaborate system facilitates the large-scale theft of crude oil, which has been a significant drain on Nigeria’s economy.

From 2009 to 2021, Nigeria lost 643 million barrels of crude oil, valued at $48 billion, due to theft. This loss represents more than half of the nation’s national debt as of 2021.

The situation has also severely impacted Nigeria’s ability to meet its OPEC quotas, which have dwindled from 2.5 million barrels per day in 2010 to just 1.38 million barrels per day.

The report, authored by Ben Nwosu, an associate consultant at Nextier, and Ndu Nwokolo, a managing partner at Nextier, paints a grim picture of the local dynamics fueling this crisis.

It highlights the involvement of multiple small-scale artisanal actors, who are often supported by local political and security forces. These local actors contribute to the creation of underground economies, further complicating efforts to curb theft.

Environmental hazards are another grave concern. Illegal refining processes, characterized by uncontrolled heat and poorly designed condensation units, have led to numerous explosions. Between 2021 and 2023 alone, these operations resulted in 285 deaths.

Despite these dangers, illegal refineries continue to thrive due to economic necessity and systemic corruption.

Nigeria’s four refineries, which have a combined capacity of 445,000 barrels per day, are currently operating at only 6,000 barrels per day due to mismanagement and corruption.

This shortfall forces the country to rely heavily on imported refined products, further exacerbating the situation.

Massive corruption in oil importation and subsidies has led to billions of naira being unaccounted for between 2016 and 2019.

Moreover, the government’s inability to support modular refineries has perpetuated reliance on illegal operations.

Security forces are often implicated in the theft, providing protection for a fee. Although recent measures, such as the destruction of illegal refineries, have offered temporary relief, these efforts have been short-lived.

New illegal operations quickly emerge, perpetuating the cycle of theft and corruption.

The authors of the report emphasize that addressing this complex issue requires more than punitive measures. They call for a comprehensive approach that tackles the root causes, including the need for effective governance and economic opportunities for affected communities.

Continue Reading
Advertisement




Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertisement

Trending