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Banks’ NPLs to Drop This Year, Says FSDH

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  • Banks’ NPLs to Drop This Year, Says FSDH

Improvement in Nigeria’s macroeconomic environment will reduce the Non-Performing Loans of deposit money banks this year, FSDH Research has said.

The company said owing to the improved state of the economy compared to last year, more companies would generate better returns and declare more dividends.

These views were contained in the firm’s Economic and Financial Markets Outlook (2018 – 2022) where it outlined strong growth prospect with downside risks. The report was presented to journalists by the Head, Research, FSDH, Mr. Ayodele Akinwunmi.

A major drop is expected on the NPLs linked to the oil/gas sector, according to Akinwunmi, adding that with rising oil prices and production output, oil firms will generate more revenue and meet their debt obligations to banks, thus reducing the NPLs substantially.

About 29 per cent of banks’ NPLs last year were linked to the oil/gas sector.

FSDH Research also forecasts a real Gross Domestic Product growth rate of 3.16 per cent in 2018 and 4.09 per cent in 2019. However, with the population growing at 2.75 per cent, it said the country required growth rate in excess of five per cent to substantially improve the wellbeing of Nigerians.

The company said agriculture, trade, and mining and quarrying sectors forecast growth rates of four per cent, two per cent and 3.2 per cent, would drive the 3.16 per cent growth rate in 2018.

Other leading sectors of the economy that would contribute to the growth, it added, were Information and Communications (2.2 per cent); real estate (2.5 per cent); construction (4 per cent) and manufacturing (one per cent). FSDH Research expects the GDP per capita to recover slightly in 2018.

Akinwunmi said, “The growth in the equity market has created additional wealth that would stimulate effective demand in the economy. Some light manufacturing activities are also taking place — stimulating demand for raw materials from agriculture produce.

“The current crude oil price above $65/barrel will encourage investment activities in the oil and gas sector. Trade sector would also benefit from the increase in consumer purchasing power.

“The opportunities in the economy are: Investments opportunity to increase production activity and to create value addition across most of the profitable segments of the agricultural value chain; import substitution strategies in agro-allied industries; manufacturing sector should receive a boost following the relative stability in the foreign exchange market; federal and state governments to sign more public private partnership deals to promote infrastructure development.

“Construction activities should continue to grow — road, rail, and so on. A rebound in the corporate and infrastructure bond markets is expected, and the real estate sector should attract more investments as the economy improves.”

The downside risk to the growth, according to him, are: The rising social unrest in some parts of the country may affect economic activities and lead to escalating inflation rate; external factors that can lead to a significant drop in the crude oil price may have adverse impact on the economic activities in Nigeria; and there could be capital flight out of Nigeria if there are excessive hike in the interest rates in the advanced economies.

FSDH also forecast a growth rate of 27.43 per cent in the equity market in 2018, adding that the outlook of the equity market remained positive.

It explained, “We expects the macroeconomic environment in Nigeria to strengthen further. Thus, we forecast a growth of 27.43 per cent in 2017 lower than the growth of 42.30 per cent recorded in 2017. We expect a strong rally in the first half of the year 2018.The quarterly analysis of the equity market in the last seven years shows that it appreciated consistently in Q2. We attribute the appreciation in Q2 to the release of the full year earnings and corporate actions during the period.

“Looking ahead into 2018, we believe the following factors will drive the equity market: Improved corporate earnings and corporate actions; increased participation of the foreign portfolio investors; increase in crude oil price at the international market; the expected drop in the yields on the fixed income securities leading to portfolio realignment towards the equity market; and increase in the external reserves providing further stability for the foreign exchange market.

“We see investment opportunities in banking, building materials and consumer goods sectors in the market.”

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Nigerian Artists’ Spotify Revenue Surges by 2,500% in Seven Years

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Nigerian musicians have experienced a shift in their fortunes on the global streaming platform Spotify with revenue surging by a 2,500% over the past seven years.

This meteoric rise shows the growing importance of digital platforms in propelling the country’s vibrant music industry onto the international stage.

According to Spotify’s annual report titled “Loud & Clear,” Nigerian artists collectively earned N25 billion from the platform in 2023 alone.

This figure represents a doubling of earnings compared to the previous year and a jaw-dropping increase of 2,500% since 2017.

The report further highlights the widening reach and impact of Nigerian music, revealing that more artists than ever before are now reaping rewards from their streaming activity.

In 2023, three times as many Nigerian artists earned over N10 million compared to 2018, reflecting the growing appetite for Nigerian music both at home and abroad.

Jocelyne Muhutu-Remy, Spotify’s managing director for Sub-Saharan Africa, hailed the growth in royalties earned by Nigerian artists on the platform as a testament to their talent, creativity, and global appeal.

She emphasized Spotify’s commitment to supporting African creators and pledged to continue investing in Nigerian artists to sustain this momentum.

Despite these gains, Nigerian artists’ earnings on Spotify still represent only a fraction of the platform’s total payout.

In 2023, Spotify paid out $9 billion in royalties globally with Nigerian artists accounting for a modest share of approximately $28.65 million.

A recent analysis revealed that South Africa remains the dominant force in Africa’s music streaming landscape, commanding a substantial portion of the region’s total music revenue.

However, Nigeria’s rapid ascent signals a shifting dynamic with the country’s music industry poised for even greater prominence on the global stage.

The International Federation of the Phonographic Industry (IFPI) corroborated this trend in its 2024 report, identifying the Sub-Saharan African market as the world’s fastest-growing music revenue market.

The report attributed this growth to the surge in paid streaming services, which contributed significantly to the region’s overall music revenue.

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Naira Depreciation Pushes Import Duty Costs Up by 23%

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Institute of Chartered Shipbrokers

Amidst the ongoing economic turbulence in Nigeria, the depreciation of the Naira has inflicted a significant blow to businesses and importers.

The latest casualty is the surge in import duty costs which have skyrocketed by 23% due to the weakening of the national currency against the United States dollar.

The cost of clearing imports has surged to N1,412.573/$ as of May 8, an increase from the year-to-date low of N1,150.16/$ recorded on April 23.

This sudden spike in import duty costs reflects a 48% surge compared to the rate recorded in January.

The surge in import duty costs comes as a result of the fluctuation in the exchange rate between the Naira and the US dollar.

While the Naira experienced a brief rally in April, providing some relief to importers, the recent depreciation has erased those gains and compounded the financial strain on businesses.

Jonathan Nicole, former president of the Shippers Association of Lagos State, voiced concerns over the destabilizing effect of the fluctuating import duty rates on importers.

He criticized the lack of consistency in Nigeria’s economic policies and said there is a need for stability to attract investments and foster economic growth.

In response to the escalating import duty costs, stakeholders in the business community have called for urgent intervention to mitigate the adverse impact on businesses.

The surge in import duty costs poses a significant challenge to manufacturers and importers, particularly those who had already incurred expenses in anticipation of stable exchange rates.

As the cost of doing business continues to rise, there are growing concerns about the long-term viability of businesses and the potential impact on Nigeria’s economy.

With the economic landscape fraught with uncertainties, stakeholders are urging the government and regulatory authorities to implement measures aimed at stabilizing the currency and creating a conducive environment for businesses to thrive.

Failure to address these challenges could further exacerbate the economic woes facing Nigeria, jeopardizing its path to recovery and growth.

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Ebenezer Olufowose Takes Helm at First Bank of Nigeria Limited as Chairman

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First Bank of Nigeria Limited has announced the appointment of Mr. Ebenezer Olufowose as its new Chairman.

This significant change follows the completion of the tenure of Mr. Tunde Hassan-Odukale, in accordance with the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Corporate Governance Guidelines, which mandates a maximum of twelve years for a Non-Executive Director.

Mr. Olufowose, a seasoned veteran in the financial services industry, brings over 36 years of experience to his new role.

He assumes the position of Chairman with a wealth of expertise garnered from his diverse background in Corporate Finance, Project Finance, and Investment Banking.

Prior to his appointment as Chairman, Mr. Olufowose served as a Non-Executive Director on the Board of First Bank of Nigeria Limited, a position he held since April 29, 2021.

He is also the Group Managing Director of First Ally Capital Limited, a reputable investment banking firm headquartered in Lagos.

His impressive career trajectory includes pivotal roles at Access Bank Plc and Citibank Nigeria, where he played instrumental roles in leading and executing corporate finance and investment banking transactions.

He spearheaded Citigroup’s origination, structuring, and execution of various high-profile deals in Nigeria.

Mr. Olufowose commenced his banking journey in 1985 at NAL Merchant Bank Plc (NAL), where he honed his skills in Corporate Planning and Finance.

Armed with a first-class honours degree in Economics from the University of Lagos and an MA in International Economics from the University of Sussex, England, Mr. Olufowose has continuously pursued excellence in his field.

Throughout his career, he has actively participated in numerous management and leadership training programs at esteemed institutions such as the Institute of Management Development in Switzerland, Harvard Business School in Boston, USA, and INSEAD in Singapore.

Also, he is an alumnus of the Harvard Business School and the Lagos Business School, further solidifying his reputation as a seasoned professional in the banking sector.

Mr. Olufowose’s commitment to professional development is evident in his affiliations with prestigious bodies such as the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria, where he holds an Honorary Senior Membership, and the Institute of Credit Administration and the Association of Investment Advisers and Portfolio Managers, where he is recognized as a Fellow.

As he assumes his new role as Chairman of First Bank of Nigeria Limited, Mr. Olufowose is poised to lead the institution with integrity, vision, and a steadfast commitment to excellence.

With his extensive experience and proven track record, he is well-positioned to guide the bank through its next phase of growth and reinforce its position as a leading financial institution in Nigeria.

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