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2019 Elections: Portfolio Investors May Pull Out Funds

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Nigeria investment
  • 2019 Elections: Portfolio Investors May Pull Out Funds

Against the backdrop of the huge debt service costs being incurred by the Federal Government, one of the nation’s Deposit Money Banks, Guaranty Trust Bank Plc, has highlighted the need for the government to reduce its borrowing cost.

The lender, in its ‘Macroeconomic and banking sector themes for 2018’ released on Tuesday, also expressed concerns that the upcoming 2019 elections might trigger repatriation of capital by foreign portfolio investors.

It said the true deregulation of the downstream oil and gas sector as well as the passage of the remaining sections of the Petroleum Industry Bill should be on the front burner of the government’s to-do list this year.

The bank noted that the Federal Government in February 2017 successfully issued $1bn 2032 notes and tapped an additional $500m a month later, adding that it raised another $300m through Diaspora Bond issuance in June 2017 and then issued $3bn dual-tranche notes comprising of 10 and 30-year Eurobonds of $1.5bn each.

The DMB said the offering of a N10.69bn Sovereign Green Bond for subscription by the Debt Management Office in December “effectively brought total funds raised to over $4.8bn in a single financial year.”

It stated that while the debt to Gross Domestic Product was low at 16.2 per cent (in June 2017) relative to Sub-Saharan African average of over 40 per cent, debt to revenue stood at over 62 per cent in the same period.

According to the report, the DMO revealed that the country spends 34 per cent of its revenue on debt servicing, while acknowledging concerns about the country’s rising debt profile and the need to bring this ratio to much lower levels.

GTBank added, “A portion of these funds has been earmarked for refinancing existing domestic debt (which accounts for around 80 per cent of total debt) to shift towards lower-priced FX external debt.

“We expect the government to work towards reducing its borrowing cost and also utilise these borrowings (net of debt servicing) to fund infrastructural investments to stimulate and reposition the economy.”

Citing the Q3 2017 report released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the report said capital inflows increased to $4.15bn, which represented a 127.5 per cent year-on-year and 131.3 per cent quarter-on-quarter increase from $1.82bn in the third quarter of 2016 and $1.79bn in the second quarter of 2017.

According to GTBank, the increase is due to improvement in forex policy vis-à-vis importers and exporters’ window and the attractive yields in fixed income securities and equities.

“We expect that the sustenance or otherwise of these capital inflows will be largely dependent on the stability of the prevailing FX and interest rate policies. In addition, the upcoming 2019 elections might drive exit concerns of foreign portfolio investors premised on political uncertainty and might trigger repatriation of capital,” the lender said.

It noted that external reserves had increased by 48 per cent year-on-year from $25.8bn in December 2016 to a 37-month high of $38.2bn in December 2017 on the back of increased foreign investments, successful $3bn Eurobond issuance as well as higher crude oil prices and production volumes.

“We expect that this commendable accretion will be sustained throughout 2018 with positive investor confidence and FX stability as key drivers,” the bank added.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Nigeria Offers 12 Oil Blocks and 5 Deep Offshore Assets to Global Investors

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Oil

Nigeria has unveiled plans to offer 12 oil blocks and 5 deep offshore assets to global investors.

The announcement was made during the ongoing 2024 Offshore Technology Conference (OTC) in Houston, United States, where Nigerian officials presented the country’s vast hydrocarbon potential to an international audience of industry stakeholders.

Addressing participants at the African Oil Industry Opportunities Session, a side event at the OTC, Gbenga Komolafe, Chief Executive of the Nigerian Upstream Regulatory Commission, outlined Nigeria’s significant reserves and emphasized the strategic importance of leveraging these resources for economic development.

With over 37.5 billion barrels of crude oil and condensate reserves, as well as 209.26 trillion cubic feet of natural gas reserves, Nigeria stands as a major player in Africa’s energy landscape.

Komolafe highlighted the government’s commitment to conducting a transparent and competitive bidding process, in accordance with the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) and applicable regulations.

The 2024 Licensing Round, he noted, marks a significant milestone in Nigeria’s hydrocarbon development initiative, introducing 12 carefully selected blocks spanning diverse geological formations, from onshore basins to deep offshore territories.

Each block has been identified for its potential to enhance Nigeria’s reserves and stimulate economic growth, offering opportunities for investors to participate in the country’s oil and gas industry.

The bidding process, which commenced on April 29, 2024, is structured to ensure fairness, competitiveness, and transparency, with guidelines issued to guide prospective bidders.

In addition to the 12 blocks, Nigeria will also conclude the sale of seven deep offshore blocks from the 2022 Mini-Bid Round Exercise, covering approximately 6,700 km2 in water depths ranging from 1,150m to 3,100m.

This comprehensive offering underscores Nigeria’s commitment to maximizing the potential of its petroleum resources and attracting strategic investments to drive sectoral growth.

The bidding round, scheduled to conclude by January 2025, presents a significant opportunity for investors and companies to participate in Nigeria’s oil and gas sector.

The inclusion of both new greenfield blocks and assets from previous bid rounds reflects the government’s dedication to fostering innovation, technological exchange, and capacity building within the industry.

With criteria emphasizing technical competence, financial capacity, and viability, the 2024 licensing round aims to be conducted in a fair, competitive, and non-discriminatory manner, in line with the provisions of the Petroleum Industry Act.

As Nigeria positions itself as a prime destination for oil and gas investment, stakeholders are optimistic about the potential for sustainable growth and development in the sector.

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Microsoft to Invest $2.2 Billion in Malaysia’s Digital Infrastructure

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Microsoft - Investors King

Microsoft Corporation has announced plans to inject $2.2 billion into Malaysia’s digital infrastructure over the next four years.

This investment shows the company’s determination to harness the potential of Southeast Asia’s burgeoning technology market.

During his visit to Kuala Lumpur, Microsoft’s Chief Executive Officer, Satya Nadella, revealed the company’s ambitious agenda, which encompasses the construction of essential infrastructure to support its cloud computing and artificial intelligence (AI) services.

Nadella also outlined plans to provide AI training to 200,000 individuals in Malaysia and collaborate with the government to enhance the nation’s cybersecurity capabilities.

The move comes amidst intensified competition among tech giants, including Alphabet Inc., Amazon.com Inc., and Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., to gain a foothold in Southeast Asia’s rapidly digitizing landscape.

With a population exceeding 650 million people, the region presents a lucrative market for tech companies seeking to expand their operations beyond traditional strongholds like China.

“We are committed to supporting Malaysia’s AI transformation and ensure it benefits all Malaysians,” stated Nadella.

During his visit, Nadella met Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and discussed the importance of collaboration between the public and private sectors in driving digital innovation.

Microsoft’s investment not only serves to fortify Malaysia’s technological infrastructure but also aligns with the company’s broader strategy to assert its presence in the Asian market.

Nadella has previously pledged a substantial sum of $7 billion to bolster Microsoft’s services across the region, emphasizing the pivotal role of AI as a catalyst for growth and urging countries to ramp up investment in the technology.

In Malaysia, the southern region of Johor Bahru, linked to Singapore by a causeway, is emerging as a key hub for AI data centers.

The partnership between Nvidia Corp. and local utility YTL Power International Bhd. to establish a $4.3 billion AI data center park in the area underscores the region’s growing significance in the realm of digital infrastructure.

While AI adoption in Southeast Asia is still in its nascent stages, experts predict significant economic benefits with the potential to add approximately $1 trillion to the region’s economy by 2030.

Malaysia is poised to capture a substantial portion of this growth with estimates suggesting a potential windfall of around $115 billion for the country.

Microsoft’s commitment extends beyond Malaysia, as the company announced similar investments during Nadella’s regional tour.

In Indonesia, Microsoft unveiled a $1.7 billion investment plan, while an undisclosed amount was pledged for initiatives in Thailand. Notably, Microsoft intends to invest approximately $1 billion in a new data center in Thailand, as reported by the Bangkok Post.

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Investors Flock to Nigerian Treasury Bills, Subscriptions Soar to N23.75 Trillion

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FG Borrows

Nigeria’s Treasury Bills market has witnessed an unprecedented surge in investor interest with subscriptions soaring to N23.75 trillion in the first four months of 2024.

This increase represents a significant 292% Year-on-Year growth from N6.06 trillion recorded in the same period in 2023.

Treasury Bills, short-term government debt instruments issued by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), have become increasingly attractive to both local and foreign investors.

The double-digit interest rates offered on NTBs have lured investors seeking refuge from the uncertainties of the global economic landscape.

The surge in subscriptions comes amidst Nigeria’s efforts to bridge its budget deficit and manage monetary challenges amidst a scarcity of foreign exchange and double-digit inflation rates.

Investors’ confidence in the CBN’s ability to navigate these challenges has been bolstered by robust subscription rates, indicating a positive outlook for the country’s fiscal stability.

The 2024 Budget of ‘Renewed Hope’, proposed by President Bola Tinubu, outlines a total expenditure of N27.5 trillion, with a deficit of N9.18 trillion.

The high demand for NTBs underscores investors’ confidence in the government’s fiscal policies and its commitment to economic reform.

As interest rates on NTBs have risen in response to inflationary pressures, the CBN has capitalized on this demand by auctioning larger volumes of NTBs.

The move aims to address liquidity in the financial system while attracting foreign investors seeking higher yields.

Analysts view the surge in NTBs subscriptions as a testament to investors’ confidence in the Nigerian government and its reforms.

The massive oversubscription signals significant system liquidity and reflects the attractiveness of NTBs as a safe investment option amidst economic uncertainties.

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