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Oil Hits $71 for First Time Since 2014

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Adenuga

Global oil benchmark, Brent crude, surged above $71 per barrel on Thursday for the first time since 2014 on support from a weaker United States dollar, tighter global supplies and a record run of declines in US crude inventories.

The US dollar hit its lowest since December 2014 against a basket of other currencies, sliding further as comments by the European Central Bank president boosted the euro a day after US Treasury Secretary, Steven Mnuchin, said a weaker dollar was “good for us,” according to Reuters.

A falling dollar makes dollar-denominated commodities cheaper for other currency holders and tends to support oil prices. Tightening global supplies have also lifted oil, as the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, including Russia, have continued supply curbs.

Brent crude, against which Nigeria’s oil is priced, hit $71.28 per barrel on Thursday, its highest since early December 2014.

“The depreciation of the US dollar is also allowing oil prices to make further gains. Almost every commodity class is being driven up by this extended dollar fall,” said Carsten Fritsch, analyst at Commerzbank.

US crude stockpiles have been dropping, underscoring the idea that global supply is rebalancing after a glut. US crude inventories fell for a record 10th straight week to the lowest since February 2015, official figures showed on Wednesday.

The supply cuts led by OPEC and Russia started a year ago and are set to last throughout 2018. They have been somewhat offset by growing output of US shale oil, as higher prices have encouraged more investment in expanding supplies.

Meanwhile, the Minister of Finance, Mrs. Kemi Adeosun, has said the country is learning to ignore crude oil prices.

“We’ve got to a point where we don’t care,” whether oil prices will be sustained at the level that they have recently risen to, Adeosun said during an interview with Bloomberg in her office in Abuja.

“We’ve been able to balance our budget at $45-$46 per barrel and we’ve got to learn to live comfortably at that level,” she added.

Brent crude has rallied almost 60 per cent since the middle of last year as OPEC and allied producing nations stick to agreed output curbs.

Nigeria is recovering from a contraction of its economy in 2016, the first in 25 years, after a decline in oil prices and in the nation’s output due to unrest in the Niger Delta.

The country can’t afford to rely so much on the commodity anymore, Adeosun said.

“Yes, it’s at $66-$67 per barrel today, but we’ve been here before, right? And we can’t afford to be exposed to that, so I really try very hard to ignore the oil price,” she added.

Nigeria, which derives about two thirds of its revenue from crude, is seeking to diversify its economy. The government’s efforts include pushing for agricultural expansion to reduce a heavy food import bill and boost exports.

It is also seeking to plug an infrastructure gap of $25bn, with Adeosun saying, “The infrastructure gap is significant; it is far bigger than anybody had imagined, in power, in roads, in rail.”

Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves have been boosted by the rise in crude prices, combined with an increase of oil shipments and improved investor confidence.

Barring any shock, the Central Bank of Nigeria could build its reserves to $60bn in the next 12 to 18 months, from $40bn currently, the Governor, Godwin Emefiele, said in an interview on Wednesday.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Central Bank of Nigeria Raises Interest Rate to 26.25% in Bid to Tackle Soaring Inflation

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Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has increased the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) by 150 basis points from 24.75% to 26.25% following a two-day meeting of its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).

The decision, which is the third consecutive interest rate hike, comes as inflation levels in Nigeria have surged to 33.69% in April 2024.

CBN Governor and MPC Chairman, Yemi Cardoso, highlighted the key focus of the MPC meeting.

He cited food inflation as a primary driver, attributing it to rising transportation costs, infrastructure challenges, insecurity, and exchange rate issues.

While announcing the interest rate hike, Cardoso noted that the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) of Deposit Money Banks (DMBs) would remain at 45%, and the MPC would maintain the Asymmetric Corridor around the MPR at +100 and -300 basis points.

Also, the liquidity ratio would be retained at 30%.

The decision reflects the CBN’s determination to address the economic challenges stemming from high inflation rates.

Despite protests and pressure from labor unions, President Bola Tinubu has urged patience, expressing confidence in his government’s reform initiatives.

The announcement of the interest rate hike comes amid rising prices of commodities and an escalating cost of living for Nigerians.

The removal of fuel subsidies last year and the floating of the naira have contributed significantly to historic high inflation levels.

In recent months, the CBN has taken measures to combat the falling value of the naira, including targeting the operations of cryptocurrency exchange Binance.

While these measures initially led to an appreciation of the currency, recent weeks have seen the gains stall.

The decision to raise the interest rate shows CBN’s commitment to implementing measures aimed at stabilizing the economy and restoring confidence in the nation’s financial system.

However, the effectiveness of these measures in curbing inflation and promoting economic growth remains to be seen amid ongoing economic challenges and uncertainties.

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Analysts Forecast Rate Increase as Naira Depreciates Sharply

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Interbank rate

As the Nigerian naira experiences a sharp depreciation against major currencies, financial analysts are predicting that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will opt for another interest rate hike to address the country’s economic challenges.

The recent slump in the naira, coupled with a 28-year high inflation rate, has raised concerns among economists, prompting expectations of further tightening measures.

Since mid-April, the naira has witnessed a significant decline, falling by 28% against the US dollar over the past four weeks.

This rapid depreciation has been exacerbated by President Bola Tinubu’s decision to relax foreign-exchange controls last June.

In response to the economic turmoil, the MPC raised interest rates by 6 percentage points in the first quarter, bringing the benchmark rate to 24.75%.

However, with inflation soaring to 33.7% last month—well above the central bank’s target range of 9%—analysts believe that additional rate hikes may be necessary to curb rising prices and stabilize the currency.

Giulia Pellegrin, a senior portfolio manager at Allianz Global Investors, highlighted the need for proactive measures, stating, “The committee will likely be watching recent currency volatility and may decide more action is needed.”

She emphasized the importance of tightening monetary policy to restore investor confidence and ensure price stability.

Yvonne Mhango, an economist at Bloomberg Africa, echoed similar sentiments, noting that the naira’s depreciation necessitates “additional and sizeable rate hikes.”

Mhango emphasized the significance of maintaining positive real interest rates to combat inflationary pressures effectively.

Investors are eagerly awaiting the MPC’s decision, with many expecting another interest rate increase at the upcoming meeting on May 21.

Ayodeji Dawodu, director of fixed income at BancTrust & Co., stressed the importance of transparency and intervention in the currency market to restore stability.

“Investors also want Cardoso to announce more liquidity-tightening measures and introduce greater transparency in the currency market,” Dawodu remarked.

Despite recent declines in liquid reserves, analysts remain hopeful that decisive action from the central bank will help alleviate concerns about the quality of reserves and bolster confidence in the economy.

As Nigeria navigates through turbulent economic waters, all eyes are on the MPC’s decision and its potential implications for the country’s financial landscape.

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Nigeria’s N3.3tn Power Sector Rescue Package Unveiled

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power project

President Bola Tinubu has given the green light for a comprehensive N3.3 trillion rescue package.

This ambitious initiative seeks to tackle the country’s mounting power sector debts, which have long hindered the efficiency and reliability of electricity supply across the nation.

The unveiling of this rescue package represents a pivotal moment in Nigeria’s quest for a sustainable energy future. With power outages being a recurring nightmare for both businesses and households, the need for decisive action has never been more urgent.

At the heart of the rescue package are measures aimed at settling the staggering debts accumulated within the power sector. President Tinubu has approved a phased approach to debt repayment, encompassing cash injections and promissory notes.

This strategic allocation of funds aims to provide immediate relief to power-generating companies (Gencos) and gas suppliers, while also ensuring long-term financial stability within the sector.

Chief Adebayo Adelabu, the Minister of Power, revealed details of the rescue package at the 8th Africa Energy Marketplace held in Abuja.

Speaking at the event themed, “Towards Nigeria’s Sustainable Energy Future,” Adelabu emphasized the government’s commitment to eliminating bottlenecks and fostering policy coherence within the power sector.

One of the key highlights of the rescue package is the allocation of funds from the Gas Stabilisation Fund to settle outstanding debts owed to gas suppliers.

This critical step not only addresses the immediate liquidity concerns of gas companies but also paves the way for enhanced cooperation between gas suppliers and power generators.

Furthermore, the rescue package includes provisions for addressing the legacy debts owed to power-generating companies.

By utilizing future royalties and income streams from the gas sub-sector, the government aims to provide a sustainable solution that incentivizes investment in power generation capacity.

The announcement of the N3.3 trillion rescue package comes amidst ongoing efforts to revitalize Nigeria’s power sector.

Recent initiatives, including tariff adjustments and regulatory reforms, underscore the government’s determination to overcome longstanding challenges and enhance the sector’s effectiveness.

However, challenges persist, as highlighted by Barth Nnaji, a former Minister of Power, who emphasized the need for a robust transmission network to support increased power generation.

Nnaji’s advocacy for a super grid underscores the importance of infrastructure development in ensuring the reliability and stability of Nigeria’s power supply.

In light of these developments, stakeholders have welcomed the unveiling of the N3.3 trillion rescue package as a decisive step towards transforming Nigeria’s power sector.

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