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Investment in Mortgage’ll Help Reduce Housing Deficit – Ayere

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  • Investment in Mortgage’ll Help Reduce Housing Deficit – Ayere

Sonnie Ayere is the Founder of Dunn Loren Merrifield, an investment firm, and Chairman of Mortgage Warehouse Funding Limited. In this interview with MAUREEN IHUA-MADUENYI, he says stakeholders are doing everything possible to open up the mortgage market.

Why do you think Nigerians still buy houses with cash despite all the efforts put into the development of mortgage in the country?

It is the issue of interest rate on mortgage; it is very high and makes the process very expensive. So that even with a tenor of about 20 to 25 years, people are reluctant and those who take mortgages pay it up as quickly as they can.

In other words, any little money they get, they put it into paying up their mortgage loan, because it is just so expensive at about 22 to 25 per cent interest rate. Secondly, when you calculate the payment with the income ratio, it is also very high; a lot of people cannot afford it.

When you look at the percentage you have to pay to the banks and the percentage of the income you have, it becomes difficult. Let’s say you earn N1, 000, under normal circumstance, your mortgage should not be more than N300; but when you calculate the interest rate of these mortgages, they take up about 60 to 65 per cent of your income, and you can’t use that much to repay mortgage loans.

So, that is one of the reasons why people still use cash; the real issue is the interest rate. But we are working on solving the problem now. For instance, the Nigerian Mortgage Refinance Company has been set up to provide long-term financing to mortgage banks with 20-year tenor.

The second is the setting up of the Mortgage Warehouse Funding Limited, which is there to provide short-term local currency, competitively-priced funding to mortgage banks in a bid to enhance their mortgage origination. Most people do not have mortgage bank accounts and therefore it is difficult for mortgage banks to sort out mortgage funds. In commercial banks, people always deposit money so it is easy to get funds, but mortgage banks do not have that kind of privilege to provide short-term funding to investors.

So, the MWFL goes to the market, raises money and gives to the mortgage banks to create mortgages, which will work for about six months before the NMRC will do a refinancing by then giving the mortgage bank 20-year money. We are also creating a very comprehensive mortgage and foreclosure law and some states are beginning to pass these laws. The Managing Director of the NMRC, Prof. Charles Inyangete and his team got Kaduna State to pass the law, so when people don’t pay their mortgages by defaulting, the bank can retrieve the property and put it back in the market to get back their funds.

What we intend to do with the mortgage warehouse is also to qualify developers and ensure that they can get off-take letters to enable them obtain financing from commercial or merchant banks to build houses. The MWFL now has eight mortgage bank members that are willing to provide mortgages to all buyers of the developers to give comfort to the commercial or merchants to provide construction finance.

The most important thing that will now help the market to open up is to get the interest rate down.

How can that be done?

It is difficult, in the sense that basically it is all based on economic realities. But, again the government is looking for offshore funding and this is now helping to drive down interest rates. It also depends on the Central Bank of Nigeria. These are some of the things that are being done but again, we have to look at some other ways to resolve the matter such as coming up with innovative ways of encouraging pension funds to support the sector on a win-win basis. That way, mortgage banks can get liquidity.

Stakeholders are doing everything possible to open up this market so that people can pay for houses on a pay-as-you-earn basis and not with cash because it is difficult to buy a house for N30m when you earn N7m a year. We are trying to move the country away from that. Mortgages should be able to help people to create wealth.

There appears to be low awareness on how mortgage works. What are stakeholders doing about this?

Most people are aware of how it works; the thing is that just like the way banks are able to advertise regularly about their products, mortgage banks are not able to do the same thing. The reason for that is because the industry itself has not been boisterous. When mortgage banks start making good money and growing, I am sure there will be lots more educative messages because it is in their interest for people to know about mortgages.

It is because they don’t have the funding capacity to create mortgages and when people hear of the interest rate, they run away. We need to find a way to make it attractive to people. Imagine if someone advertises 20-year mortgages at 8.5 per cent in the newspaper, most people would jump at it. It is about having a package to sell to the people. It is not like people don’t want the mortgages but they have to have something that is attractive; 20 to 25 per cent interest rate is not exactly attractive.

How effective have the initiatives you talked about been in addressing these issues?

NMRC has done its first refinancing, it is about to do another refinancing and the whole idea is that once MWFL launches and begins to do its first funding, then it becomes a continuous thing. What will happen is that mortgages will then have a one-month funding period. For instance, mortgage generated in January will be funded at the end of the month or say first week of February and those mortgages will remain on the bank’s balance sheet for a minimum of a six-month period, or say till the end of June after which it will then be refinanced by the NMRC. Then the next batch again in February will be refinanced in July, March will be refinanced in August and so on. It will create a situation where mortgage banks will feel confident to go out and market their products knowing that they have the wherewithal to provide the funding.

It will be good to add that by the end of 2018, we will be able to say this is what we have been able to achieve and as interest rates go down, mortgages will grow even more.

Going by all the initiatives, have there been any significant increases in the volume of mortgage origination?

The NMRC is designed to provide long-term financing to mortgage banks, so the reason it hasn’t had much impact is that it is waiting for the mortgages to come through. So, what is being done through the MWFL is help to create the mortgages; that is what it is there for. The impact of the initiatives will begin to show with the strength of the MWFL. As MWFL begins to seal mortgage origination, it will create the pool for the NMRC to refinance.

So the NMRC has begun to do its bit by refinancing the legacy mortgages that existed in the member mortgage at the time. So what they need is really consistent funding for the banks to be able to continue to create those mortgages. MWFL will do its first funding in January (This month) and will on monthly basis provide money to mortgage banks.

Hopefully, whether on semi-annual or quarterly basis, the NMRC will then refinance the mortgages long-term. I think at the beginning of 2019, there will be a much stronger impact in the mortgage sector than we have ever seen before.

What plans are in place to get back the trust of property buyers who have lost faith in the system?

Even if this government doesn’t bother to bring down the interest rates, stakeholders are looking for other ways to see that this happens and it will be a collaborative effort between the mortgage banks, CBN, National Pension Commission, Mortgage Banking Association of Nigeria, the Ministry of Finance and others. Even though the economy may not be right, they could say let us use these pool of funds to create mortgages and begin to get Nigerians on the housing ladder and on the road to wealth creation.

I agree a lot still needs to be done on enlightenment. When the system takes off properly, there will be literacy campaigns for the people to properly understand how it works and the repayment responsibilities.

The system is one I would love to see change and that is why we stakeholders are working to create a system of pay-as-you-earn. Except we are able to create something like this, it will be difficult to help people out of the pressure that they feel and how expensive it is for people to buy their homes which is why we are not getting the mortgage-GDP ratio that we require.

With the housing deficit we talk about in Nigeria, even if we are building a million houses a year, it will take 20 years to reduce it. So, it gives an idea of how enormous the issue is and how it is important that we get people unto the mortgage ladder and I believe that the process will begin this year.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

Brent Plunges Below $83 Amidst Rising US Stockpiles and Middle East Uncertainty

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Brent crude oil - Investors King

The global oil declined today as Brent crude prices plummeted below $83 per barrel, its lowest level since mid-March.

This steep decline comes amidst a confluence of factors, including a worrisome surge in US oil inventories and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

On the commodity exchanges, Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil prices, experienced a sharp decline, dipping below the psychologically crucial threshold of $83 per barrel.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, the US benchmark, also saw a notable decrease to $77 per barrel.

The downward spiral in oil prices has been attributed to a plethora of factors rattling the market’s stability.

One of the primary drivers behind the recent slump in oil prices is the mounting stockpiles of crude oil in the United States.

According to industry estimates, crude inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for WTI futures contracts, surged by over 1 million barrels last week.

Also, reports indicate a significant buildup in nationwide holdings of gasoline and distillates, further exacerbating concerns about oversupply in the market.

Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to add a layer of uncertainty to the oil market dynamics.

The Israeli military’s incursion into the Gazan city of Rafah has intensified concerns about the potential escalation of conflicts in the region.

Despite efforts to broker a truce between Israel and Hamas, designated as a terrorist organization by both the US and the European Union, a lasting peace agreement remains elusive, fostering an environment of instability that reverberates across global energy markets.

Analysts and investors alike are closely monitoring these developments, with many expressing apprehension about the implications for oil prices in the near term.

The recent downturn in oil prices reflects a broader trend of market pessimism, with indicators such as timespreads and processing margins signaling a weakening outlook for the commodity.

The narrowing of Brent and WTI’s prompt spreads to multi-month lows suggests that market conditions are becoming increasingly less favorable for oil producers.

Furthermore, the strengthening of the US dollar is compounding the challenges facing the oil market, as a stronger dollar renders commodities more expensive for investors using other currencies.

The dollar’s upward trajectory, coupled with oil’s breach below its 100-day moving average, has intensified selling pressure on crude futures, exacerbating the latest bout of price weakness.

In the face of these headwinds, some market observers remain cautiously optimistic, citing ongoing supply-side risks as a potential source of support for oil prices.

Factors such as the upcoming June meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) and the prospect of renewed curbs on Iranian and Venezuelan oil production could potentially mitigate downward pressure on prices in the coming months.

However, uncertainties surrounding the trajectory of global oil demand, geopolitical developments, and the efficacy of OPEC+ supply policies continue to cast a shadow of uncertainty over the oil market outlook.

As traders await official data on crude inventories and monitor geopolitical developments in the Middle East, the coming days are likely to be marked by heightened volatility and uncertainty in the oil markets.

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Climb on Renewed Middle East Concerns and Saudi Supply Signals

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Crude oil

As global markets continue to navigate through geopolitical uncertainties, oil prices rose on Monday on renewed concerns in the Middle East and signals from Saudi Arabia regarding its crude supply.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigeria’s oil is priced, surged by 51 cents to $83.47 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose by 53 cents to $78.64 a barrel.

The recent escalation in tensions between Israel and Hamas has amplified fears of a widening conflict in the key oil-producing region, prompting investors to closely monitor developments.

Talks for a ceasefire in Gaza have been underway, but prospects for a deal appeared slim as Hamas reiterated its demand for an end to the war in exchange for the release of hostages, a demand rejected by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

The uncertainty surrounding the conflict was further exacerbated on Monday when Israel’s military called on Palestinian civilians to evacuate Rafah as part of a ‘limited scope’ operation, sparking concerns of a potential ground assault.

Analysts warned that such developments risk derailing ceasefire negotiations and reigniting geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Adding to the bullish sentiment, Saudi Arabia announced an increase in the official selling prices (OSPs) for its crude sold to Asia, Northwest Europe, and the Mediterranean in June.

This move signaled the kingdom’s anticipation of strong demand during the summer months and contributed to the upward pressure on oil prices.

The uptick in prices comes after both Brent and WTI crude futures posted their steepest weekly losses in three months last week, reflecting concerns over weak U.S. jobs data and the timing of a potential Federal Reserve interest rate cut.

However, with most of the long positions in oil cleared last week, analysts suggest that the risks are skewed towards a rebound in prices in the early part of this week, particularly for WTI prices towards the $80 mark.

Meanwhile, in China, the world’s largest crude importer, services activity remained in expansionary territory for the 16th consecutive month, signaling a sustained economic recovery.

Also, U.S. energy companies reduced the number of oil and natural gas rigs operating for the second consecutive week, indicating a potential tightening of supply in the near term.

As global markets continue to navigate through geopolitical uncertainties and supply dynamics, investors remain vigilant, closely monitoring developments in the Middle East and their impact on oil prices.

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Drop Sharply, Marking Steepest Weekly Decline in Three Months

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Crude Oil - Investors King

Amidst concerns over weak U.S. jobs data and the potential timing of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, oil prices record its sharpest weekly decline in three months.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, settled 71 cents lower to close at $82.96 a barrel.

Similarly, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell 84 cents, or 1.06% to end the week at $78.11 a barrel.

The primary driver behind this decline was investor apprehension regarding the impact of sustained borrowing costs on the U.S. economy, the world’s foremost oil consumer. These concerns were amplified after the Federal Reserve opted to maintain interest rates at their current levels this week.

Throughout the week, Brent experienced a decline of over 7%, while WTI dropped by 6.8%.

The slowdown in U.S. job growth, revealed in April’s data, coupled with a cooling annual wage gain, intensified expectations among traders for a potential interest rate cut by the U.S. central bank.

Tim Snyder, an economist at Matador Economics, noted that while the economy is experiencing a slight deceleration, the data presents a pathway for the Fed to enact at least one rate cut this year.

The Fed’s decision to keep rates unchanged this week, despite acknowledging elevated inflation levels, has prompted a reassessment of the anticipated timing for potential rate cuts, according to Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS.

Higher interest rates typically exert downward pressure on economic activity and can dampen oil demand.

Also, U.S. energy companies reduced the number of oil and natural gas rigs for the second consecutive week, reaching the lowest count since January 2022, as reported by Baker Hughes.

The oil and gas rig count fell by eight to 605, with the number of oil rigs dropping by seven to 499, the most significant weekly decline since November 2023.

Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions surrounding the Israel-Hamas conflict have somewhat eased as discussions for a temporary ceasefire progress with international mediators.

Looking ahead, the next meeting of OPEC+ oil producers is scheduled for June 1, where the group may consider extending voluntary oil output cuts beyond June if global oil demand fails to pick up.

In light of these developments, money managers reduced their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week leading up to April 30, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

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