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Job Losses Force Focus on Entrepreneurship, Industrialisation

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Immigration

Over four million Nigerians lost their jobs last year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The unemployment rate rose at an all-time high of 18.8 percent in the third quarter of 2017, with NBS projecting that the figure might get worse. The grim statistics, which underscored the economy’s vulnerability despite exiting the recession, may have prompted renewed focus on entrepreneurship, industrialisation and stronger public-private sector collaboration this year. 

Grim statistics abound to challenge economic managers working with the private sector to halt the unemployment rate in the country.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) brought the reality of the crisis in the labour market nearer home when it said that in nine months, last January to September, 4.07 million Nigerians lost their jobs.

The Bureau, in its unemployment report for third quarter of last year, said the number of Nigerians that became unemployed rose from 11.92 million in the first quarter of last year to 13.58 million and 15.99 million in the second and third quarters.

It said between the second and the third quarters, the number of economically active or working age population (15-64) increased from 110.3 million to 111.1 million.

It said the population of Nigeria’s labour force increased from 83.9 million in second quarter 2017 to 85.1 million in third quarter, while the total number of people in full-time employment (at least 40 hours weekly) declined from 52.7 million in second quarter to 51.1 million in third quarter.

The Bureau added that unemployment rate increased from 14.2 per cent in fourth quarter 2016 to 16.2 per cent in the second quarter and 18.8 per cent in third quarter.

The NBS report further said the number of people within the labour force who are unemployed or underemployed increased from 13.6 million and 17.7 million in the second quarter, to 15.9 million and 18 million in third quarter.

According to it, the total unemployment and underemployment combined increased from 37.2 per cent in the previous quarter to 40 per cent in third quarter.

The Bureau, among other disturbing revelations, emphasised that the increasing unemployment and underemployment rates implied that though the economy was out of recession, the domestic labour market was still fragile.

NBS added that growths in the past two quarters of last year had also not been strong enough to provide employment in Nigeria’s domestic labour market.

Though disconcerting, the unemployment figures churned out by the NBS only confirmed what not a few Nigerians and operators in various sectors already knew: Nigeria’s unemployment crisis has reached frightening dimension.

The situation, they noted, requires more efforts by various tiers of the government, private sector operators, development partners, unemployed Nigerians and other critical stakeholders to stem the tide this New Year.

Even before the NBS report, which jolted Nigerians and also put the administration on the spot with regards to promise in job creation, experts in the employment space had consistently canvassed increased support for entrepreneurship, particularly for Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs).

They also argue that there is no better time than now to put more steam into the drive for industrialisation.

The United Nations Industrial Development Organisation (UNIDO) Regional Office, Nigeria, is one of those that has long pushed this position by calling on both the Federal and State Governments to increase their support for entrepreneurship and industrial development, noting that this could be done by putting in place more business –friendly policies and incentives.

The Officer in Charge, UNIDO Regional Office, Nigeria, Dr. Chuma Ezedinma, did not mince words when he noted: “Entrepreneurship and industrialisation are two important ingredients for stimulating economic growth, job creation and poverty reduction in both developed economies and economies in transition including Nigeria.”

Ezedinma, who spoke at a UNIDO Stakeholders’ Workshop in Abuja, also said increased support for SMEs could help tame the unemployment monster.

“Successful SMEs are the primary engines for job creation, income growth, and poverty reduction. Small businesses broaden the base of participation in society, create jobs, decentralise economic power, and give people a stake in the future.”

He said the government could encourage entrepreneurship and small businesses through its tax policy (corporate tax rate reductions, tax credits for investment and tax holidays).

Others are regulatory policy (simpler regulatory processes and reducing the cost of compliance with government regulations), access to capital (here the proposed development commercial banks can be of assistance), and the legal protection of property rights.

UNIDO has been at the forefront of promoting Inclusive and Sustainable Industrial Development (ISID) in Nigeria and globally. It has never hidden its intention to support and partner the government and private sector in order to achieve this.

But, going by the NBS latest unemployment statistics, the government and private sector appear to have failed to work with the Organisation to enable Nigerians benefit maximally from UNIDO’s global expertise in the area of entrepreneurship and industrial development.

However, a new dawn may be in the offing for unemployed Nigerians this year as job creation appears to engage the attention of government and the private sector.

Worried by the fragility of the domestic labour market, despite the economy’s exit from recession, members of the Organised Private Sector (OPS) have urged the Federal Government to adopt measures to create jobs this year.

The OPS in its reaction to the 18.8 per cent unemployment rate, noted that many employers, including the public sector, found it difficult to pay workers as and when due.

The OPS said this had necessitated the need for measures that would impact on citizens’ welfare, especially lower food prices, reduced cost of healthcare, improved transportation system, constant power supply and security of lives and property.

Noting that Nigeria’s unemployment rate was one of the highest in the world, Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) Director-General, Mr. Muda Yusuf, said increased support for SMEs and business start-ups through capacity building and funding would help.

He identified lack of finance, inadequate infrastructural facilities, shortage of skilled manpower, poor entrepreneurial skills and lack of enabling operating environment, among others, as some of the challenges holding SMEs down. He, therefore, said there was the need to address these challenges to unleash SMEs’ potential.

According to Yusuf, SMEs boast huge potential for employment generation and wealth creation, if adequately encouraged. He said by helping to create more jobs, SMEs reduce unemployment and its associated high crime rate.

Indeed, the rising spate of unemployment, particularly among the youths, according to the experts, was responsible for the various vices plaguing the country. They include political instability, civil unrest, rising crime wave (kidnapping, robbery, cultism, prostitution, advanced fee fraud, otherwise called ‘419’) and reduced wages, among others.

To curtail the rising crime wave across the country, experts have called on the government to fast-track its diversification strategy as encapsulated in the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP) by supporting growth in income enhancing and job creating sectors, such as SMEs, mining and agriculture.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Steady as Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Talks Offer Hope, Red Sea Attacks Persist

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markets energies crude oil

Amidst geopolitical tensions and ongoing conflicts, oil prices remained relatively stable as hopes for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas emerged, while attacks in the Red Sea continued to escalate.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, saw a modest rise of 27 cents to $88.67 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil gained 30 cents to $82.93 a barrel.

The optimism stems from negotiations between Israel and Hamas with talks in Cairo aiming to broker a potential ceasefire.

Despite these diplomatic efforts, attacks in the Red Sea by Yemen’s Houthis persist, raising concerns about potential disruptions to oil supply routes.

Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights, emphasized the importance of a concrete agreement to drive market sentiment, stating that the oil market awaits a finalized deal between the conflicting parties.

Meanwhile, investor focus remains on the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy review, particularly in light of persistent inflationary pressures.

Market expectations for any rate adjustments have been pushed out due to stubborn inflation, potentially bolstering the U.S. dollar and impacting oil demand.

Concerns over demand also weigh on sentiment, with ANZ analysts noting a decline in premiums for diesel and heating oil compared to crude oil, signaling subdued demand prospects.

As geopolitical uncertainties persist and market dynamics evolve, observers closely monitor developments in both the Middle East and global economic policies for their potential impact on oil prices and market stability.

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Sink 1% as Israel-Hamas Talks in Cairo Ease Middle East Tensions

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Crude oil - Investors King

Oil prices declined on Monday, shedding 1% of their value as Israel-Hamas peace negotiations in Cairo alleviated fears of a broader conflict in the Middle East.

The easing tensions coupled with U.S. inflation data contributed to the subdued market sentiment and erased gains made earlier.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, dropped by as much as 1.09% to 8.52 a barrel while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil fell by 0.99% to $83.02 a barrel.

The initiation of talks to broker a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas played a pivotal role in moderating geopolitical concerns, according to analysts.

A delegation from Hamas was set to engage in peace discussions in Cairo on Monday, as confirmed by a Hamas official to Reuters.

Also, statements from the White House indicated that Israel had agreed to address U.S. concerns regarding the potential humanitarian impacts of the proposed invasion.

Market observers also underscored the significance of the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy review on May 1.

Anticipation of a more hawkish stance from the Federal Open Market Committee added to investor nervousness, particularly in light of Friday’s data revealing a 2.7% rise in U.S. inflation over the previous 12 months, surpassing the Fed’s 2% target.

This heightened inflationary pressure reduced the likelihood of imminent interest rate cuts, which are typically seen as stimulative for economic growth and oil demand.

Independent market analysts highlighted the role of the strengthening U.S. dollar in exacerbating the downward pressure on oil prices, as higher interest rates tend to attract capital flows and bolster the dollar’s value, making oil more expensive for holders of other currencies.

Moreover, concerns about weakening demand surfaced with China’s industrial profit growth slowing down in March, as reported by official data. This trend signaled potential challenges for oil consumption in the world’s second-largest economy.

However, amidst the current market dynamics, optimism persists regarding potential upside in oil prices. Analysts noted that improvements in U.S. inventory data and China’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) could reverse the downward trend.

Also, previous gains in oil prices, fueled by concerns about supply disruptions in the Middle East, indicate the market’s sensitivity to geopolitical developments in the region.

Despite these fluctuations, the market appeared to brush aside potential disruptions to supply resulting from Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries over the weekend. The attack temporarily halted operations at the Slavyansk refinery in Russia’s Krasnodar region, according to a plant executive.

As oil markets navigate through geopolitical tensions and economic indicators, the outcome of ongoing negotiations and future data releases will likely shape the trajectory of oil prices in the coming days.

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Commodities

Cocoa Fever Sweeps Market: Prices Set to Break $15,000 per Ton Barrier

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Cocoa

The cocoa market is experiencing an unprecedented surge with prices poised to shatter the $15,000 per ton barrier.

The cocoa industry, already reeling from supply shortages and production declines in key regions, is now facing a frenzy of speculative trading and bullish forecasts.

At the recent World Cocoa Conference in Brussels, nine traders and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expressed unanimous confidence in the continuation of the cocoa rally.

According to their predictions, New York futures could trade above $15,000 a ton before the year’s end, marking yet another milestone in the relentless ascent of cocoa prices.

The surge in cocoa prices has been fueled by a perfect storm of factors, including production declines in Ivory Coast and Ghana, the world’s largest cocoa producers.

Shortages of cocoa beans have left buyers scrambling for supplies and willing to pay exorbitant premiums, exacerbating the market tightness.

To cope with the supply crunch, Ivory Coast and Ghana have resorted to rolling over contracts totaling around 400,000 tons of cocoa, further exacerbating the scarcity.

Traders are increasingly turning to cocoa stocks held in exchanges in London and New York, despite concerns about their quality, as the shortage of high-quality beans intensifies.

Northon Coimbrao, director of sourcing at chocolatier Natra, noted that quality considerations have taken a backseat for most processors amid the supply crunch, leading them to accept cocoa from exchanges despite its perceived inferiority.

This shift in dynamics is expected to further deplete stocks and provide additional support to cocoa prices.

The cocoa rally has already seen prices surge by about 160% this year, nearing the $12,000 per ton mark in New York.

This meteoric rise has put significant pressure on traders and chocolate makers, who are grappling with rising margin calls and higher bean prices in the physical market.

Despite the challenges posed by soaring cocoa prices, stakeholders across the value chain have demonstrated a willingness to absorb the cost increases.

Jutta Urpilainen, European Commissioner for International Partnerships, noted that the market has been able to pass on price increases from chocolate makers to consumers, highlighting the resilience of the cocoa industry.

However, concerns linger about the eventual impact of the price surge on consumers, with some chocolate makers still covered for supplies.

According to Steve Wateridge, head of research at Tropical Research Services, the full effects of the price increase may take six months to a year to materialize, posing a potential future challenge for consumers.

As the cocoa market continues to navigate uncharted territory all eyes remain on the unfolding developments, with traders, analysts, and industry stakeholders bracing for further volatility and potential record-breaking price levels in the days ahead.

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