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Nigeria, Others Need Commodity-price Surge to Avert Debt Crunch –IMF

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IMF
  • Nigeria, Others Need Commodity-price Surge to Avert Debt Crunch –IMF

The sub-Saharan Africa faces a potential debt crunch unless commodity prices improve and boost the pace of economic growth, the International Monetary Fund has said.

The Washington-based Fund said the region’s median government debt level would probably exceed 50 per cent of the Gross Domestic Product this year from 34 per cent in 2013, while the cost of servicing the liabilities would average almost 10 per cent compared with half of that four years ago, Bloomberg reported.

There have been no investment-grade dollar-debt issuers in sub-Saharan Africa after Moody’s Investors Service and Fitch Ratings Limited cut Namibia to junk this year.

Commodity returns have dropped in six of the past seven years and expectations for slower growth in China, the biggest consumer, don’t bode well for African nations that depend on mining, crops and oil for the bulk of their income.

The IMF had said in October that the region’s growth might average 2.6 per cent this year, almost double 2016’s level but barely above population expansion, with delays in making policy changes risking this.

“Rising debt levels present a major risk to progress in sub-Saharan Africa, especially if there is another major shock in the global commodity market and if African markets are still in a recovery stage in the economic cycle,” a London-based economic-research head at Ecobank Transnational Incorporated, Gaimin Nonyane, said.

The Federal Government of Nigeria’s debt-sale plans would more than double its outstanding dollar bonds to about $9bn.

That would add to issuances by South Africa, Ghana, Senegal, Ivory Coast and Gabon.

The Fund said policy uncertainty in South Africa and Nigeria, the region’s biggest economies, were restraining growth, with the IMF reducing their 2017 expansion forecasts to below one per cent for the two nations.

In Kenya, the central bank said the nation couldn’t continue its current debt build-up path if it would remain sustainable.

Authorities are also negotiating with the IMF to rollover a standby facility of $1.5bn.

The number of sub-Saharan African countries in or at risk of debt distress almost doubled to 12 over the past four years, while Mozambique – which defaulted this year – is among those engaging creditors to restructure debt.

Gabon, Ghana and Zambia are most susceptible to the risk of financing stress given large Eurobond maturities in the next decade, according to Moody’s, which said sub-Saharan Africa sovereign downgrades outnumbered upgrades 20 to two since 2015.

“We don’t envisage a debt crisis, but it’s clearly a risk for a handful of countries,” a London-based economist at Capital Economics, William Jackson, said by phone.

With no long track record of repaying international bonds, it will be a test for nations like Ghana, scheduled to make a principal payment of $2.75bn through 2026, Moody’s said in a report last month.

Gabon owes $2.2bn by 2025, and Zambia $3bn from 2022 to 2027.

“Because the payments are too large, these economies will be very sensitive to any change in external financing conditions,” Jackson said.

“If commodity prices fall, or capital inflows to emerging markets are low, then these countries will struggle to roll over these debts. They may then need to pay higher interest rates or suffer from weaker currencies.”

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Energy

Port-Harcourt Refinery Set to Commence Operations by July End, IPMAN Discloses

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oil refinery

The Port-Harcourt refinery with a capacity of 210,000 barrels per day, is poised to begin operations by the end of July.

This announcement comes after several postponements and delays that have plagued the refinery’s revival efforts.

Chief Ukadike Chinedu, the National Public Relations Officer of the Independent Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN), revealed this optimistic timeline on Monday.

According to Chinedu, the refinery’s revival is expected to stimulate economic activities, reduce petroleum product prices, and ensure adequate supply in the market.

The refinery, located in Port-Harcourt, comprises two units: an older plant with a refined capacity of 60,000 barrels per day and a newer plant with a capacity of 150,000 barrels per day.

Despite previous setbacks and delays, the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Heineken Lokpobiri, announced the mechanical completion and flare start-off of the refinery in December last year.

However, the refinery’s journey to resuming operations has been marked by challenges and setbacks. It shut down in March 2019 for the first phase of repair works, following the government’s engagement of technical advisors to oversee the refurbishment process.

Despite assurances from NNPC Limited’s Group Chief Executive Officer, Mele Kyari, in March 2024, stating that operations would commence within two weeks, the refinery faced further delays.

In an exclusive interview, Chinedu emphasized the extensive turnaround undertaken at the refinery, suggesting a complete overhaul rather than mere rehabilitation.

He expressed confidence in meeting the July deadline, citing round-the-clock efforts to ensure readiness for operations.

While acknowledging previous delays, Chinedu remained optimistic about the refinery’s imminent revival, emphasizing its potential to enhance competition in the petroleum sector and reduce product prices.

He pointed out that the refinery’s operationalization aligns with the impending commencement of petrol production by the Dangote Refinery, further emphasizing the potential benefits for Nigeria’s energy landscape.

However, Femi Soneye, the Chief Corporate Communications Officer of NNPC Limited, highlighted regulatory approvals from international bodies as the remaining hurdle to the refinery’s operational commencement.

Soneye reiterated that mechanical completion had been achieved, with all necessary infrastructure in place, awaiting regulatory clearance to commence operations.

As Nigeria navigates its energy transition and seeks to bolster local refining capacity, the imminent revival of the Port-Harcourt refinery signifies a significant milestone towards achieving energy sufficiency and economic growth.

With hopes pinned on the July deadline, stakeholders remain vigilant, anticipating the refinery’s long-awaited resurgence.

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Commodities

Nigeria Spends $2.13bn on Food Imports in 2023

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Commodities Exchange

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) disbursed $2.13 billion for food imports in 2023.

This disclosure raises concerns about the nation’s ability to achieve self-sufficiency in food production.

Despite being touted as the “food basket of Africa,” Nigeria continues to rely heavily on imported food commodities.

The CBN’s quarterly statistics revealed a consistent demand for foreign currencies for food imports throughout the year.

The significant forex release for food imports stands in stark contrast to efforts by the Nigerian government to boost local agricultural production and reduce dependence on imports.

Factors such as inadequate infrastructure, insecurity, and climate change have hindered progress in the agricultural sector, leaving the nation vulnerable to fluctuations in global food prices.

A breakdown of the disbursements shows varying amounts allocated each month, with notable spikes observed in March and November.

Despite initiatives aimed at promoting local production, including the ban on food imports by the Federal Government, the nation’s appetite for foreign food products remains unabated.

The rise in food prices has also been a cause for concern, with the average price of imported food commodities reaching a 34% increase between April 2023 and April 2024.

This surge in prices has contributed to food inflation in Nigeria and across sub-Saharan Africa, highlighting the region’s vulnerability to global market dynamics.

Experts warn that Nigeria’s heavy reliance on food imports poses significant risks to its economy and food security.

Despite efforts to promote local production, challenges such as insecurity and inadequate infrastructure continue to impede progress in the agricultural sector.

Commenting on the issue, Kabir Ibrahim, the National President of the All Farmers Association of Nigeria, acknowledged that Nigeria has made strides in reducing its dependence on certain food items but expressed concern over the increasing trend in food imports.

He highlighted the challenges faced by farmers, including insecurity and flooding, which have affected food production and contributed to the rising import bill.

Yusuf Muda, the Managing Director of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, emphasized the need for accurate data to assess Nigeria’s food import dependency accurately.

He called for a comprehensive analysis of the types of food imported and their contribution to the nation’s food consumption.

As Nigeria grapples with the challenges of food security and economic stability, addressing the root causes of its reliance on food imports remains a critical priority.

Efforts to strengthen the agricultural sector, improve infrastructure, and mitigate climate change impacts are essential for achieving long-term food security and economic resilience.

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Crude Oil

NNPCL CEO Optimistic as Nigeria’s Oil Production Edges Closer to 1.7mbpd

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Crude Oil

Mele Kyari, the Group Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL), has expressed optimism as the nation’s oil production approaches 1.7 million barrels per day (mbpd).

Kyari’s positive outlook comes amidst ongoing efforts to address security challenges and enhance infrastructure crucial for oil production and distribution.

Speaking at a stakeholders’ engagement between the Nigerian Association of Petroleum Explorationists (NAPE) and NNPCL in Lagos, Kyari highlighted the significance of combating insecurity in the oil and gas sector to facilitate increased production.

Kyari said there is a need for substantial improvements in infrastructure to support oil production.

He noted that Nigeria’s crude oil production has been hampered by pipeline vandalism, prompting alternative transportation methods like barging and trucking of petroleum products, which incur additional costs and logistical challenges.

Despite these challenges, Kyari revealed that Nigeria’s oil production is steadily rising, presently approaching 1.7mbpd.

He attributed this progress to ongoing efforts to combat pipeline vandalism and enhance infrastructure resilience.

Kyari stressed the importance of taking control of critical infrastructure to ensure uninterrupted oil production and distribution.

One of the key projects highlighted by Kyari is the Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano (AKK) gas pipeline, which plays a crucial role in enhancing gas supply infrastructure.

He noted that completing the final phase of the AKK pipeline, particularly the 2.7 km river crossing, would facilitate the flow of gas from the eastern to the western regions of Nigeria, supporting industrial growth and energy security.

Addressing industry stakeholders, including NAPE representatives, Kyari reiterated the importance of collaboration in advancing Nigeria’s oil and gas sector.

He emphasized the need for technical training, data availability, and policy incentives to drive innovation and growth in the industry.

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