Forex

Forex Weekly Outlook December 18-22

Published

6 years ago

December 18, 2017

Forex Weekly Outlook December 18-22

The ongoing U.S. tax reform continued to dictate global financial markets. However, with the reform likely to go through this week, the U.S. dollar is poised for a substantial gain against most currencies. Especially after the Reserve Bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points last week as projected and the economy continued to create jobs with further improvement of 3.9 percent unemployment rate projected for 2018.

But with the consumer prices and wage growth below expectations, the central bank may be compelled to review its policy stance in 2018 and not expect tightening labor market to eventually boost wage growth.

In the UK, the consumer prices rose to 3.1 percent, higher than the expected 3.0 percent while wages climbed 0.2 percent in the three months through October, suggesting that the weak pound sterling and the uncertainties surrounding the Brexit negotiation are weighing on prices in the U.K. and subsequently impacting the economic growth. Also, the while manufacturing surged on growing overseas orders in October, activities in the services sector slowed in the month. Services sector contribute about 80 percent of the total U.K. economy.

Here is our weekly pick, EURUSD, AUDUSD, CADJPY GBPUSD and EURNZD.

EURUSD

The lack of monetary direction from the European Central Bank impacted the Euro outlook, especially the decision of the central bank to maintain record-low interest rates even with growing economy.

However, the US dollar, on the other hand, was bolstered by the Federal Reserve decision to raise interest rates has projected and the plan to further complement this with a robust fiscal policy.

Therefore, this week the US dollar is expected to further gain against the Euro single currency towards the ascending channel at 1.1698, a sustained break below the 1.1685 should open up 1.1581 if the tax reform eventually goes through. Hence, we are bearish on EURUSD.

AUDUSD

The Australian dollar rebounded last week against the US dollar, however, this is likely a temporary upsurge due to better than expected retail sales and job numbers. This is because the Australian economy remains weak; growing at 0.6 percent rate in the third quarter and retail sales that rebounded in October has been down for three previous months due to growing household debt and weak consumer spending.

This week, the strong US economic fundamentals and tax reform possibility are likely to boost the US attractiveness against the Aussie dollar. Therefore, we remain bearish on AUDUSD as explained previous, and expect a break below the ascending channel at 0.7515 to open up 0.7385 (new target).

EURNZD

After peaking at a 39-month record three weeks ago, this pair called the top at 1.7481 price level and dropped 677 pips. Meaning, the European Central Bank’s monetary stance plunged the euro against the New Zealand dollar.

This week, the weak euro is expected to dip further against haven currency, Kiwi. A sustained break of 1.6804 price level should open up 1.6395, target 1.

GBPUSD

As previously explained, even though construction sector expanded more than projected in November, new investment remained weak, suggesting that investors are holding back due to growing economic and political uncertainty in the region. Therefore, a positive Brexit agreement or meeting is necessary to boost business confidence and sustain economic activities.

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Samed Olukoya

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Naira

Dollar to Naira Black Market Today, April 25th, 2024

As of April 25th, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,300 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

Published

23 hours ago

April 25, 2024

Samed Olukoya

Naira to Dollar Exchange- Investors King Rate - Investors King

As of April 25th, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,300 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

For those engaging in currency transactions in the Lagos Parallel Market (Black Market), buyers purchase a dollar for N1,260 and sell it at N1,250 on Wednesday, April 24th, 2024 based on information from Bureau De Change (BDC).

Meaning, the Naira exchange rate declined when compared to today’s rate below.

This black market rate signifies the value at which individuals can trade their dollars for Naira outside the official or regulated exchange channels.

Investors and participants closely monitor these parallel market rates for a more immediate reflection of currency dynamics.

How Much is Dollar to Naira Today in the Black Market?

Kindly be aware that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not acknowledge the existence of the parallel market, commonly referred to as the black market.

The CBN has advised individuals seeking to participate in Forex transactions to utilize official banking channels.

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate

Buying Rate: N1,300
Selling Rate: N1,290

Naira

Dollar to Naira Black Market Today, April 24th, 2024

As of April 24th, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,260 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

Published

2 days ago

April 24, 2024

Samed Olukoya

As of April 24th, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,260 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

For those engaging in currency transactions in the Lagos Parallel Market (Black Market), buyers purchase a dollar for N1,250 and sell it at N1,240 on Tuesday, April 23rd, 2024 based on information from Bureau De Change (BDC).

Meaning, the Naira exchange rate declined slightly when compared to today’s rate below.

This black market rate signifies the value at which individuals can trade their dollars for Naira outside the official or regulated exchange channels.

Investors and participants closely monitor these parallel market rates for a more immediate reflection of currency dynamics.

How Much is Dollar to Naira Today in the Black Market?

Kindly be aware that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not acknowledge the existence of the parallel market, commonly referred to as the black market.

The CBN has advised individuals seeking to participate in Forex transactions to utilize official banking channels.

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate

Buying Rate: N1,260
Selling Rate: N1,250

Naira

Nigeria’s Naira Dips 5.3% Against Dollar, Raises Concerns Over Reserve Levels

Published

2 days ago

April 24, 2024

Samed Olukoya

Nigerian Naira depreciated by 5.3% against the US dollar as concerns over declining foreign reserves raise questions about the central bank’s ability to sustain liquidity.

The local currency has now declined for the third consecutive day since the Naira retreated from its three-month high on Friday shortly after Bloomberg pointed out that the Naira gains were inversely proportional to foreign reserves’ growth.

According to data from Lagos-based FMDQ, the naira’s value dropped precipitously, halting its recent impressive performance.

The unofficial market saw an even steeper decline of 6%, extending the currency’s retreat over the past three trading days to a staggering 17%.

Abubakar Muhammed, Chief Executive of Forward Marketing Bureau de Change Ltd., expressed concerns over the sharp decline, highlighting the insufficient supply of dollars in the market.

Muhammed noted that despite a 27% increase in traded volume at the foreign exchange market on Monday, the supply remained inadequate, forcing the naira to soften further while excess demand shifted to the unofficial market.

The dwindling foreign exchange reserves have been a cause for alarm, with Nigeria’s gross dollar reserves steadily declining for 17 consecutive days to reach $32 billion as of April 19, the lowest level since September 2017.

This worrisome trend has raised questions about the adequacy of dollar inflows to rebuild reserves, especially after the central bank settled overdue dollar obligations earlier in the year.

Samir Gadio, Head of Africa Strategy at Standard Chartered Bank, pointed out that while the naira had been supported by onshore dollar selling, the rally was likely overextended.

Gadio warned that the emergence of a dislocation in the market, with domestic participants selling dollars at increasingly lower spot levels was unsustainable and necessitated a correction.

The central bank’s efforts to stabilize the naira have been evident with interventions aimed at improving liquidity.

However, the effectiveness of these measures remains uncertain, particularly as the central bank offered dollars to bureau de change operators at a rate 17% below the official rate tracked by FMDQ.

Analysts, including Ayodeji Dawodu from Banctrust Investment Bank, foresee further challenges ahead, predicting that the naira will likely stabilize around 1,500 against the dollar by year-end.

Dawodu emphasized the importance of stabilizing the currency to attract strong foreign capital inflows, underscoring the significance of sustainable monetary policies in Nigeria’s economic recovery.

As Nigeria grapples with the repercussions of the naira’s depreciation and declining foreign reserves, policymakers face mounting pressure to implement measures that ensure stability and foster confidence in the economy.

The road ahead remains uncertain, with the fate of the naira intricately tied to Nigeria’s ability to address underlying economic vulnerabilities and bolster investor trust.