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Nigeria, Libya in Focus as OPEC Meets Today

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Oil production
  • Nigeria, Libya in Focus as OPEC Meets Today

Nigeria and Libya will expect to face growing pressure from their counterparts in the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries to end their exemption from production cuts and accept an output quota, when ministers meet on Thursday (today) for a closely watched summit.

The production cuts deal, which began on January 1 and called on OPEC countries and 10 non-OPEC producers led by Russia to cut a combined 1.8 million barrels per day in supplies, was in May extended by nine months to March 2018.

Nigeria and Libya, which were exempt from the cuts as they dealt with internal unrest that had targeted their oil infrastructure, have ramped up oil production in recent months as their security situations have improved.

While the production outlooks for both countries remain hazy due to political, security and technical challenges, voices had been growing louder within OPEC that their output has recovered sufficiently to join in their market rebalancing efforts, sources told S&P Global Platts.

“I think both countries will be discussed,” an OPEC source told Platts, but he declined to say whether members would insist on imposing quotas.

One option being discussed is a “loose” quota that would be triggered if production in either country rises to a certain level, while another option would be to place a quota right at or above each country’s production target, to at least symbolise that they were willing to accept a cap, other sources and analysts said.

But it would be entirely possible that both countries’ exemptions would be maintained, as they had been vehemently opposed to any output restrictions while recovering from militancy, the sources said.

Nigeria declared in late September that it had agreed to a production cap of 1.8 million bpd, a level the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Dr. Ibe Kachikwu, said would not be achieved until early 2018.

Other OPEC ministers and delegates appeared caught off guard by that announcement, as it contradicted Kachikwu’s previous statements that Nigeria would not join the output agreement until its production stabilised at 1.8 million bpd, from which it would cut.

Kachikwu had told reporters then that he wanted to “change the narrative” and that his country was already contributing to the deal by producing below that level, albeit involuntarily.

The nation’s oil production from January to October this year was close to 1.74 million bpd, according to the Platts OPEC survey, a rise of 300,000 bpd from December last year, but still much below the 1.8 million bpd cap.

Output hit a 16-month high of 1.86 million bpd in August, but has fallen since due to operational and loading delays.

It could face further challenges, with the growing threat of attacks in the oil-rich Niger Delta next year, as the country heads into its presidential campaign season, analysts said.

Counting Nigerian oil production has also been a difficult exercise, with divided opinions on what constitutes crude and what should be counted as condensates.

Nigeria has long said its oil production capacity is at around 2.2 million bpd, with condensate production accounting for between 350,000 and 400,000 bpd. The remaining 1.8 million bpd or so, which coincidentally is its self-declared cap for the agreement, consists of crude oil.

Nigeria this year began counting its Agbami grade, output of which is about 250,000 b/d, as part of its condensate production, which market watchers say makes it easier for the country to keep its crude output below 1.8 million bpd.

But some independent secondary sources used by OPEC to monitor crude output under the deal still count Agbami as crude.

Platts, one of the secondary sources, includes Agbami in Nigeria’s crude oil figure as it is marketed as a crude export blend and not a condensate by the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation and international oil companies.

In its latest monthly oil market report, OPEC said its six secondary sources pegged Nigerian crude production at an average of 1.68 million bpd for the first 10 months of the year.

Nigeria’s directly reported figures to OPEC showed that crude output from January to October averaged 1.58 million bpd.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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