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Budget: FG Adjusts 2018-2020 MTEF/FSP by N1.5tn

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  • Budget: FG Adjusts 2018-2020 MTEF/FSP by N1.5tn

The Federal Government on Monday gave details of the adjustments it made to the 2018-2020 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework and Fiscal Strategy Paper, explaining that they were incorporated in the 2018 budget proposal presented to the National Assembly on November 7 by President Muhammadu Buhari.

The President, had before the budget presentation, submitted an earlier version of the MTEF, but captured the revised version in the budget estimates now before the lawmakers.

The Minster of State for Budget and National Planning, Mrs. Zainab Ahmed, told the House of Representatives in Abuja that about N1.5tn adjustments were made to the MTEF, particularly on the revenue projections for the 2018 budget.

Buhari had laid a total budget size of N8.61bn before the National Assembly on November 7 based on the revised MTEF.

Ahmed, who appeared before the joint Committees on Finance, Appropriation, Aid/Loans/Debt Management, said additional N710bn was added to the MTEF from oil operations.

She stated that another N320bn was from Production Sharing Contracts, while exercise duties on cigarettes and alcoholic beverages would add N60bn.

The minister also informed the committee that improvement in revenues by the Federal Inland Revenue Service would add another N100bn, besides N2bn import duty expected from luxury cars and goods imported by the super-rich.

Ahmed said as much as N250bn of unspent funds from the 2017 budget had also been factored into the revised MTEF.

The minister explained that the adjustments also meant that the N2.005tn deficit in the 2018 budget was lower by N940bn, compared to 2017.

“The total deficit is still within the allowable threshold. The deficit will be financed by both domestic and eternal borrowing,” she stated.

According to the minister, the total projected revenue for the budget is N6.6tn, or 30 per cent higher than 2017.

She gave other indices of the budget to include daily oil production target of 2.3 million barrels; $45 crude oil benchmark price; reduced fiscal deficit of 2.5 per cent; GDP growth rate of 3.57 per cent; and an exchange rate of N305 to the dollar.

The session, which was presided over by the Chairman, House Committee on Finance, Mr. Babangida Ibrahim, was held to give the executive the opportunity to defend the MTEF prior to its passage by the House.

Last week, lawmakers had opposed the MTEF on the grounds that the content was different from the budget proposal submitted to the National Assembly by Buhari.

By the requirements of the Fiscal Responsibility Act, 2007, the National Assembly must first approve the MTEF before passing the next budget, which is already awaiting debate by lawmakers in both chambers of the National Assembly.

Major ministries and agencies of government, including the Ministry of Finance, Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, Federal Inland Revenue Service, Department of Petroleum Resources, Nigeria Customs Service, Debt Management Office and the Central Bank of Nigeria, largely adopted the presentation of the minister.

But the committee was not satisfied with the submissions of the agencies on independent revenues, saying that there was still much emphasis on crude oil revenue by the government.

The members directed the Minister of Finance, Mrs. Kemi Adeosun, to urgently submit an updated report on independent revenue component of the budget up to the month of November.

Meanwhile, the CBN defended the government’s decision on the 41 items prohibited from accessing foreign exchange.

The Deputy Governor of the apex bank, Mr. Bayo Adelabu, argued that the policy was introduced to encourage growth in the manufacturing and agricultural sectors of the economy.

He stated, “We still have the items on the restriction list because some of these items can actually be produced locally.

“Take ceramics and tiles for example, we can produce them. The restriction even encouraged many companies to invest massively in agriculture and there is a boost in the local industries.

“Lifting the ban will affect the huge investments of some of these companies.”

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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Economy

IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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Economy

South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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