Connect with us

Markets

Developing Countries to Lead Oil Demand Growth Till 2040, Says OPEC

Published

on

OPEC
  • Developing Countries to Lead Oil Demand Growth Till 2040, Says OPEC

The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has said developing countries will lead oil demand growth in the next two decades.

In its 2017 World Oil Outlook launched in Vienna, the cartel said oil demand is expected to grow in the developing countries, especially Asian and the Middle East countries by almost 24 million barrels per day (bpd), to reach 67 million bpd by 2040.

The report said:“Total primary energy demand is set to increase by 35 per cent in the period to 2040 and oil is expected to remain the fuel with the largest share in the energy mix throughout the forecast period to 2040.

“Long-term oil demand has been revised upward by 1.7 million barrels per day compared to the World Oil Outlook of 2016, with total demand at over 111 million barrels per day by 2040. There is no expectation for peak oil demand over the forecast period to 2040.

“Developing countries will continue to lead demand growth, increasing by almost 24 million bpd to reach 67 million bpd by 2040. The long-term demand growth comes mainly from the transportation sector – road transportation (5.4 million bpd), petrochemicals (3.9 million bpd) and aviation (2.9 million bpd)”.

According to the report, oil demand in the road transportation sector is driven by the increasing car fleet in developing countries and declining oil use per vehicle in the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries. The car fleet is anticipated to change smoothly over the forecast period. In the passenger car segment, electric vehicles are estimated to represent 12 per cent of the car fleet by 2040.

It said: “Non-OPEC liquids supply is forecast to increase from 57 million bpd in 2016 to 62 million bpd in 2022, but in the long-term non-OPEC liquids output is anticipated to see a decline, dropping to 60.4 million bpd by 2040, with United States (US) tight oil estimated to peak just after 2025;

“The demand for OPEC crude is anticipated to expand to 41.4 million bpd by 2040. The share of OPEC liquids in total global liquids supply is estimated to increase to 46 per cent by 2040, from 40 per cent in 2016.

“Around half of the estimated refining capacity additions are expected in the Asia-Pacific, which is projected to add 9.5 million bpd by 2040. Capacity rationalisation remains a long-term requirement, with some 6-8 million bpd of closures indicated as needed by 2040 if refining regions are to maintain utilisation rates of at least 80 per cent.

“Global crude movements are expected to increase by around 6.5 million bpd between 2016 and 2040, mostly supported by Asia-Pacific imports and Middle East exports. In the period to 2040, the required global oil sector investment is estimated at $10.5 trillion”.

Speaking during the launch, Director, Research Division of OPEC, Dr. Ayed S. Al-Qahtani, said: “The multi-faceted nature of the oil industry and the continued interdependence of all nations; the impact of the ongoing market rebalancing process, specifically on the medium-term outlook; that oil will remain a fuel of choice for the foreseeable future; that security of supply and security of demand are very much two sides of the same coin; and the importance of exploring and evaluating the possible challenges, uncertainties, as well as opportunities, the industry might face.”

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

Continue Reading
Comments

Crude Oil

IOCs Stick to Dollar Dominance in Crude Oil Transactions with Modular Refineries

Published

on

Crude Oil - Investors King

International Oil Companies (IOCs) are standing firm on their stance regarding the currency denomination for crude oil transactions with modular refineries.

Despite earlier indications suggesting a potential shift towards naira payments, IOCs have asserted their preference for dollar dominance in these transactions.

The decision, communicated during a meeting involving indigenous modular refineries and crude oil producers, shows the complex dynamics shaping Nigeria’s energy landscape.

While the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) had previously hinted at the possibility of allowing indigenous refineries to purchase crude oil in either naira or dollars, IOCs have maintained a firm stance favoring the latter.

Under this framework, modular refineries would be required to pay 80% of the crude oil purchase amount in US dollars, with the remaining 20% to be settled in naira.

This arrangement, although subject to ongoing discussions, signals a significant departure from initial expectations of a more balanced currency allocation.

Representatives from the Crude Oil Refinery Owners Association of Nigeria (CORAN) said the decision was not unilaterally imposed but rather reached through deliberations with relevant stakeholders, including the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).

While there were initial hopes of broader flexibility in currency options, the dominant position of IOCs has steered discussions towards a more dollar-centric model.

Despite reservations expressed by some participants, including modular refinery operators, the consensus appears to lean towards accommodating the preferences of major crude oil suppliers.

The development underscores the intricate negotiations and power dynamics shaping Nigeria’s energy sector, with implications for both domestic and international stakeholders.

As discussions continue, attention remains focused on how this decision will impact the operations and financial viability of modular refineries in Nigeria’s evolving oil landscape.

Continue Reading

Energy

Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery Overtakes European Giants in Capacity, Bloomberg Reports

Published

on

Aliko Dangote - Investors King

The Dangote Refinery has surpassed some of Europe’s largest refineries in terms of capacity, according to a recent report by Bloomberg.

The $20 billion Dangote refinery, located in Lagos, boasts a refining capacity of 650,000 barrels of petroleum products per day, positioning it as a formidable player in the global refining industry.

Bloomberg’s data highlighted that the Dangote refinery’s capacity exceeds that of Shell’s Pernis refinery in the Netherlands by over 246,000 barrels per day. Making Dangote’s facility a significant contender in the refining industry.

The report also underscored the scale of Dangote’s refinery compared to other prominent European refineries.

For instance, the TotalEnergies Antwerp refining facility in Belgium can refine 338,000 barrels per day, while the GOI Energy ISAB refinery in Italy was built with a refining capacity of 360,000 barrels per day.

Describing the Dangote refinery as a ‘game changer,’ Bloomberg emphasized its strategic advantage of leveraging cheaper U.S. oil imports for a substantial portion of its feedstock.

Analysts anticipate that the refinery’s operations will have a transformative impact on Nigeria’s fuel market and the broader region.

The refinery has already commenced shipping products in recent weeks while preparing to ramp up petrol output.

Analysts predict that Dangote’s refinery will influence Atlantic Basin gasoline markets and significantly alter the dynamics of the petroleum trade in West Africa.

Reuters recently reported that the Dangote refinery has the potential to disrupt the decades-long petrol trade from Europe to Africa, worth an estimated $17 billion annually.

With a configured capacity to produce up to 53 million liters of petrol per day, the refinery is poised to meet a significant portion of Nigeria’s fuel demand and reduce the country’s dependence on imported petroleum products.

Aliko Dangote, Africa’s richest man and the visionary behind the refinery, has demonstrated his commitment to revolutionizing Nigeria’s energy landscape. As the Dangote refinery continues to scale up its operations, it is poised to not only bolster Nigeria’s energy security but also emerge as a key player in the global refining industry.

Continue Reading

Crude Oil

Brent Crude Hits $88.42, WTI Climbs to $83.36 on Dollar Index Dip

Published

on

Brent crude oil - Investors King

Oil prices surged as Brent crude oil appreciated to $88.42 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed to $83.36 a barrel.

The uptick in prices comes as the U.S. dollar index dipped to its lowest level in over a week, prompting investors to shift their focus from geopolitical tensions to global economic conditions.

The weakening of the U.S. dollar, a key factor influencing oil prices, provided a boost to dollar-denominated commodities like oil. As the dollar index fell, demand for oil from investors holding other currencies increased, leading to the rise in prices.

Investors also found support in euro zone data indicating a robust expansion in business activity, with April witnessing the fastest pace of growth in nearly a year.

Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, noted that the market had been under pressure due to sluggish growth in the euro zone, making any signs of improvement supportive for oil prices.

Market participants are increasingly looking beyond geopolitical tensions and focusing on economic indicators and supply-and-demand dynamics.

Despite initial concerns regarding tensions between Israel and Iran and uncertainties surrounding China’s economic performance, the market sentiment remained optimistic, buoyed by expectations of steady oil demand.

Analysts anticipate the release of key economic data later in the week, including U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) figures and March’s personal consumption expenditures, which serve as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.

These data points are expected to provide further insights into the health of the economy and potentially impact oil prices.

Also, anticipation builds around the release of U.S. crude oil inventory data by the Energy Information Administration, scheduled for Wednesday.

Preliminary reports suggest an increase in crude oil inventories alongside a decrease in refined product stockpiles, reflecting ongoing dynamics in the oil market.

As oil prices continue their upward trajectory, investors remain vigilant, monitoring economic indicators and geopolitical developments for further cues on the future direction of the market.

Continue Reading
Advertisement




Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertisement

Trending