Forex

Forex Weekly Outlook November 20-24

Published

6 years ago

November 19, 2017

Forex Weekly Outlook November 20-24

The US economy continued to churn out strong economic fundamentals but not enough to sustain dollar attractiveness amid rising tax concern. Retail sales rose 0.2 percent in October, indicating consumer spending remains healthy even with less desirable wage growth.

In the U.K, the economy has started showing signs of weakness following Prime Minister Theresa May failure to reach an agreement with the European Union. Retail sales dropped 0.3 percent year-on-year in October, while wage growth edge higher slightly to 2.2 percent in the third quarter. Still, this is below the 3 percent inflation rate that is eroding buying power.

In the Euro-area, the economy grew at 0.6 percent with consumer prices remaining steady at 1.4
percent, same as previous numbers.

This week, we will be reviewing six currency pairs as listed below;

AUDUSD

Australia created fewer jobs than expected in October but unemployment rate improved to 5.4 percent. Meaning, drop in the participation rate was what plunged unemployment rate to more than 4-year low and not state of the economy.

As previously stated, the Australian economy is struggling with weak wage growth and low inflation rate, this we expect to continue into 2018. Especially, with retailers cutting prices to boost demand and housing debt rising.

Therefore, this week we remain bearish on AUDUSD and expect the success of House Republicans on tax reform to further aid AUDUSD towards our third target at 0.7505.

NZDUSD

Last week, data shows New Zealand’s producer price index, both input and output, rose less than expected in the third quarter. Suggesting that price pressures are still low and likely to impede the Reserve Bank of New Zealand from raising rates in 2018.

Even though inflation rate was better than expected in the third quarter, 1.9 percent year-on-year. It was just above the mid of 1-3 percent projected by the apex bank. This is partly due to the decline in global dairy prices and weak exports.

Again, while this pair rebounded after hitting our first target at 0.6892, the weak economic outlook due to change of government and poor economic fundamentals continued to hurt the Kiwi attractiveness against most currencies. Therefore, after establishing a bearish evening star below the ascending line, as shown above, the NZDUSD has reaffirmed bearish continuation. This week, we remain bearish on NZDUSD with 0.6716 (target 2) as the target.

NZDJPY

The weak producer prices aided our NZDJPY projection last week but after NZDJPY hit our second target at 76.25 the pair slightly rebounded to close above that support level. While we are bearish on NZDJPY, we need a sustained break of 76.25 support level to validate bearish continuation for 74.47 targets.

AUDJPY

As stated in the previous analysis, the Australian dollar is overpriced but the weak economic data and uncertainty surrounding the economic growth ahead of China’s credit control and steel reduction policies are key factors hurting Aussie dollar attractiveness against G10 currencies.After closing below our first target at 86.34 and below the ascending trendline, the AUDJPY affirmed bearish continuation towards 82.20 as shown above but a sustained break of 84.74 is needed to further validate downside movement. This week, we will be looking to add to our position below 84.74 support.

AUDNZD

While this pair rebounded last week, we do not see its sustainability going forward. Therefore, we attributed the upsurge in price to the weak producer prices data released on Friday and expect the market to attain a ‘balance’ next week. Especially, with the weak Australian economic outlook and the 1.1111 resistance level that doubled as 20-day moving average still intact.

Hence, we remain bearish on AUDNZD and expect a close below the ascending trendline and 1.1000 support level to reinforce sellers’ interest and push price towards 1.0922 as previously stated.

GBPAUD

Since we first mentioned this pair buy opportunity in September, it has gained significantly above our 1.6539 targets. However, after readjusting our psychological levels to accommodate the Bank of England’s new monetary policy stance, we think GBPAUD is ready for the upside for two reasons. One, while the Australian dollar is overpriced, Pound Sterling is undervalued and has suffered tremendously because of growing uncertainties surrounding Brexit. Two, the U.K. economic numbers remain positive and resilient even with the growing political and economic issues in the nation, while the reverse is the case for Australian economic numbers.

Similarly, between September 15 and November 17, this pair has gained 1080 pips to close at 1.7466 last week. That is a significant move for the Pound Sterling with all the economic uncertainties. Also, we believe a close above the 1.7181 validated sustainable bullish move and as long as that level holds, we are bullish on GBPAUD with 1.7652 as the target.

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Samed Olukoya

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Forex

Yen Hits 34-Year Low Against Dollar Despite Bank of Japan’s Inaction

Published

5 hours ago

April 26, 2024

Samed Olukoya

The Japanese yen plummeted to a 34-year low against the US dollar, sending shockwaves through global financial markets.

Despite mounting pressure and speculation, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) chose to maintain its key interest rate.

The yen’s relentless slide, extending to 0.7% to 156.66 against the dollar, underscores deep concerns about Japan’s economic stability and the efficacy of its monetary policies.

BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s remarks at a post-meeting news conference did little to assuage fears as he acknowledged the impact of foreign exchange dynamics on inflation but downplayed the yen’s influence on underlying prices.

Investors, already on edge due to the yen’s dismal performance this year, are now bracing for further volatility amid speculation of imminent intervention by Japanese authorities.

The absence of decisive action from the BOJ has heightened uncertainty, with concerns looming over the potential repercussions of a prolonged yen depreciation.

The implications of the yen’s decline extend far beyond Japan’s borders, reverberating across global markets. The currency’s status as the worst-performing among major currencies in the Group of Ten (G-10) underscores its significance in the international financial landscape.

Policymakers have issued repeated warnings against excessive depreciation, signaling a commitment to intervene if necessary to safeguard economic stability.

Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki reiterated the government’s readiness to respond to foreign exchange fluctuations, emphasizing the need for vigilance in the face of market volatility.

However, the lack of concrete action from Japanese authorities has left investors grappling with uncertainty, unsure of the yen’s trajectory in the days to come.

Market analysts warn of the potential for further downside risk, particularly in light of upcoming economic data releases and the prospect of thin trading volumes due to public holidays in Japan.

The absence of coordinated intervention efforts and a clear policy stance only exacerbates concerns, fueling speculation about the yen’s future trajectory.

The yen’s current predicament evokes memories of past episodes of currency turmoil, prompting comparisons to Japan’s intervention in 2022 when the currency experienced a similar downward spiral.

The prospect of history repeating itself looms large, as market participants weigh the possibility of intervention against the backdrop of an increasingly volatile global economy.

As Japan grapples with the yen’s precipitous decline, the stakes have never been higher for policymakers tasked with restoring stability to the currency markets. With the world watching closely, the fate of the yen hangs in the balance, poised between intervention and inertia in the face of unprecedented challenges.

Naira

Dollar to Naira Black Market Today, April 25th, 2024

As of April 25th, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,300 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

Published

1 day ago

April 25, 2024

Samed Olukoya

Naira to Dollar Exchange- Investors King Rate - Investors King

As of April 25th, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,300 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

For those engaging in currency transactions in the Lagos Parallel Market (Black Market), buyers purchase a dollar for N1,260 and sell it at N1,250 on Wednesday, April 24th, 2024 based on information from Bureau De Change (BDC).

Meaning, the Naira exchange rate declined when compared to today’s rate below.

This black market rate signifies the value at which individuals can trade their dollars for Naira outside the official or regulated exchange channels.

Investors and participants closely monitor these parallel market rates for a more immediate reflection of currency dynamics.

How Much is Dollar to Naira Today in the Black Market?

Kindly be aware that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not acknowledge the existence of the parallel market, commonly referred to as the black market.

The CBN has advised individuals seeking to participate in Forex transactions to utilize official banking channels.

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate

Buying Rate: N1,300
Selling Rate: N1,290

Naira

Dollar to Naira Black Market Today, April 24th, 2024

As of April 24th, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,260 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

Published

2 days ago

April 24, 2024

Samed Olukoya

As of April 24th, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,260 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

For those engaging in currency transactions in the Lagos Parallel Market (Black Market), buyers purchase a dollar for N1,250 and sell it at N1,240 on Tuesday, April 23rd, 2024 based on information from Bureau De Change (BDC).

Meaning, the Naira exchange rate declined slightly when compared to today’s rate below.

This black market rate signifies the value at which individuals can trade their dollars for Naira outside the official or regulated exchange channels.

Investors and participants closely monitor these parallel market rates for a more immediate reflection of currency dynamics.

How Much is Dollar to Naira Today in the Black Market?

Kindly be aware that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not acknowledge the existence of the parallel market, commonly referred to as the black market.

The CBN has advised individuals seeking to participate in Forex transactions to utilize official banking channels.