Connect with us

Forex

Forex Weekly Outlook November 20-24

Published

on

One-hundred euro, from top, U
  • Forex Weekly Outlook November 20-24

The US economy continued to churn out strong economic fundamentals but not enough to sustain dollar attractiveness amid rising tax concern. Retail sales rose 0.2 percent in October,  indicating consumer spending remains healthy even with less desirable wage growth.

In the U.K, the economy has started showing signs of weakness following Prime Minister Theresa May failure to reach an agreement with the European Union. Retail sales dropped 0.3 percent year-on-year in October, while wage growth edge higher slightly to 2.2 percent in the third quarter. Still, this is below the 3 percent inflation rate that is eroding buying power.

In the Euro-area, the economy grew at 0.6 percent with consumer prices remaining steady at 1.4
percent, same as previous numbers.

This week, we will be reviewing six currency pairs as listed below;

AUDUSD

Australia created fewer jobs than expected in October but unemployment rate improved to 5.4 percent. Meaning, drop in the participation rate was what plunged unemployment rate to more than 4-year low and not state of the economy.

As previously stated, the Australian economy is struggling with weak wage growth and low inflation rate, this we expect to continue into 2018. Especially, with retailers cutting prices to boost demand and housing debt rising.AUDUSDDaily

Therefore, this week we remain bearish on AUDUSD and expect the success of House Republicans on tax reform to further aid AUDUSD towards our third target at 0.7505.

NZDUSD

Last week, data shows New Zealand’s producer price index, both input and output, rose less than expected in the third quarter. Suggesting that price pressures are still low and likely to impede the Reserve Bank of New Zealand from raising rates in 2018.

Even though inflation rate was better than expected in the third quarter, 1.9 percent year-on-year. It was just above the mid of 1-3 percent projected by the apex bank. This is partly due to the decline in global dairy prices and weak exports.Forex Weekly Outlook November 20-24

Again, while this pair rebounded after hitting our first target at 0.6892, the weak economic outlook due to change of government and poor economic fundamentals continued to hurt the Kiwi attractiveness against most currencies. Therefore, after establishing a bearish evening star below the ascending line, as shown above, the NZDUSD has reaffirmed bearish continuation. This week, we remain bearish on NZDUSD with 0.6716 (target 2) as the target.

NZDJPY

The weak producer prices aided our NZDJPY projection last week but after NZDJPY hit our second target at 76.25 the pair slightly rebounded to close above that support level.  While we are bearish on NZDJPY, we need a sustained break of 76.25 support level to validate bearish continuation for 74.47 targets.

Forex Weekly Outlook November 20-24

AUDJPY

As stated in the previous analysis, the Australian dollar is overpriced but the weak economic data and uncertainty surrounding the economic growth ahead of China’s credit control and steel reduction policies are key factors hurting Aussie dollar attractiveness against G10 currencies.Forex Weekly Outlook November 20-24After closing below our first target at 86.34 and below the ascending trendline, the AUDJPY affirmed bearish continuation towards 82.20 as shown above but a sustained break of 84.74 is needed to further validate downside movement. This week, we will be looking to add to our position below 84.74 support.

AUDNZD

While this pair rebounded last week, we do not see its sustainability going forward. Therefore, we attributed the upsurge in price to the weak producer prices data released on Friday and expect the market to attain a ‘balance’ next week. Especially, with the weak Australian economic outlook and the 1.1111 resistance level that doubled as 20-day moving average still intact.Forex Weekly Outlook November 20-24

Hence, we remain bearish on AUDNZD and expect a close below the ascending trendline and 1.1000 support level to reinforce sellers’ interest and push price towards 1.0922 as previously stated.

 GBPAUD

Since we first mentioned this pair buy opportunity in September, it has gained significantly above our 1.6539 targets. However, after readjusting our psychological levels to accommodate the Bank of England’s new monetary policy stance, we think GBPAUD is ready for the upside for two reasons. One, while the Australian dollar is overpriced, Pound Sterling is undervalued and has suffered tremendously because of growing uncertainties surrounding Brexit. Two, the U.K. economic numbers remain positive and resilient even with the growing political and economic issues in the nation, while the reverse is the case for Australian economic numbers.

Similarly, between September 15 and November 17, this pair has gained 1080 pips to close at 1.7466 last week. That is a significant move for the Pound Sterling with all the economic uncertainties. Also, we believe a close above the 1.7181 validated sustainable bullish move and as long as that level holds, we are bullish on GBPAUD with 1.7652 as the target.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

Continue Reading
Comments

Forex

Bureau De Change Operators Demand CBN Reversal on New Capital Requirement

Published

on

Bureau De Change Operator

In a move that underscores growing tensions between the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the Association of Bureau De Change Operators of Nigeria (ABCON), the latter has vehemently demanded the reversal of the new capital requirements set forth by the apex bank.

The CBN recently issued fresh guidelines for the operations of Bureau De Change (BDC) operators, introducing two new categories of licenses with significantly higher capital bases.

The Tier 1 category necessitates a minimum capital requirement of N2 billion, alongside non-refundable application and license fees of N1 million and N5 million, respectively.

Similarly, Tier 2 BDCs are mandated to maintain a minimum capital base of N500 million, with corresponding fees.

This move by the CBN has elicited strong opposition from BDC operators, who argue that the new requirements pose a significant threat to their businesses.

During a virtual meeting themed “New CBN Regulatory & Supervisory Reforms for BDCs: Challenges and Way Forward,” the association presented recommendations aimed at addressing their concerns.

ABCON President, Aminu Gwadebe, emphasized the urgency of the situation, demanding the immediate reversal of the financial requirements.

He proposed a return to the previously submitted proposal, suggesting capital thresholds of N500 million for Tier 1, N100 million for Tier 2, and N35 million for Tier 3.

Also, he advocated for existing BDC owners to be given the opportunity to recapitalize instead of reapplying for licenses.

The association further urged the CBN to recognize the existing N35 million capital requirement and incorporate it into the recapitalization process.

They called for a nationwide enlightenment campaign to allay investors’ fears and an extension of the compliance timeline to two years for fairness. Furthermore, existing BDCs should be permitted to retain their generic names, and the terms of engagement for mergers and acquisitions clarified.

Operators expressed outright rejection of the new guidelines, with concerns raised about the CBN’s perception of their role in the financial sector.

Ibrahim Bala voiced the collective sentiment, labeling the guidelines as unacceptable, while Kayode Taiwo questioned the government’s motives behind the capital hike.

In response, the CBN defended its stance, emphasizing the importance of corporate governance and compliance with anti-money laundering regulations for BDC operators.

As the standoff between BDC operators and the CBN intensifies, the outcome of this dispute will likely shape the future landscape of Nigeria’s foreign exchange market.

Continue Reading

Naira

Black Market Dollar (USD) to Naira (NGN) Exchange Rate Today 29th May 2024

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 29th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,520.

Published

on

New Naira Notes

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 29th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,520.

Recent data from Bureau De Change (BDC) reveals that buyers in the Lagos Parallel Market purchased a dollar for ₦1,510 and sold it at ₦1,500 on Monday, May 28th, 2024.

This indicates a decline in the Naira exchange rate when compared to today’s rate.

The black market rate plays a crucial role for investors and participants, offering a real-time reflection of currency dynamics outside official or regulated exchange channels.

Monitoring these rates provides insights into the immediate value of the Naira against the dollar, guiding decision-making processes for individuals and businesses alike.

It’s important to note that while the black market offers valuable insights, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not officially recognize its existence.

The CBN advises individuals engaging in forex transactions to utilize official banking channels, emphasizing the importance of compliance with regulatory frameworks.

How much is dollar to naira today in the black market

For those navigating the currency exchange landscape, here are the latest figures for the black market exchange rate:

  • Buying Rate: ₦1,520
  • Selling Rate: ₦1,510

As economic conditions continue to evolve, staying informed about currency exchange rates empowers individuals to make informed financial decisions. While the black market provides immediate insights, adherence to regulatory guidelines ensures stability and transparency in forex transactions.

Continue Reading

Naira

Black Market Dollar (USD) to Naira (NGN) Exchange Rate Today 28th May 2024

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 28th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,510.

Published

on

Naira Exchange Rates - Investors King

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 28th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,510.

Recent data from Bureau De Change (BDC) reveals that buyers in the Lagos Parallel Market purchased a dollar for ₦1,520 and sold it at ₦1,510 on Monday, May 27th, 2024.

This indicates an improvement in the Naira exchange rate when compared to today’s rate.

The black market rate plays a crucial role for investors and participants, offering a real-time reflection of currency dynamics outside official or regulated exchange channels.

Monitoring these rates provides insights into the immediate value of the Naira against the dollar, guiding decision-making processes for individuals and businesses alike.

It’s important to note that while the black market offers valuable insights, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not officially recognize its existence.

The CBN advises individuals engaging in forex transactions to utilize official banking channels, emphasizing the importance of compliance with regulatory frameworks.

How much is dollar to naira today in the black market

For those navigating the currency exchange landscape, here are the latest figures for the black market exchange rate:

  • Buying Rate: ₦1,510
  • Selling Rate: ₦1,500

As economic conditions continue to evolve, staying informed about currency exchange rates empowers individuals to make informed financial decisions. While the black market provides immediate insights, adherence to regulatory guidelines ensures stability and transparency in forex transactions.

Continue Reading
Advertisement




Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertisement

Trending