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Focus on Domestic Lending, PwC Urges FG

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Price Waterhouse Coopers - Investors King
  • Focus on Domestic Lending, PwC Urges FG

The Pricewater-houseCoopers Nigeria has advised the Federal Government to focus on domestic sources of funds to finance the deficit in the 2018 budget proposal.

The multinational consulting firm, in a report that analysed the 2018 budget proposal, pointed out that pension funds could bridge the deficit in the budget.

The analysts said external financing could be difficult in 2018 due to the rising interest rates in advanced economies, particularly in the United States and the United Kingdom.

The consulting firm estimated that the fiscal deficit in the budget proposal could amount to N3.4tn, an amount which is 69.6 per cent higher than a deficit of N2.005tn estimated by the Federal Government.

According to the firm, the history of poor revenue generation in the non-oil sector may make the government’s estimated revenue generation from the sector in the coming year unrealistic, thereby creating a huge deficit in the budget.

“Whilst the reduced reliance on oil revenues is plausible, the trend and reasons for revenue underperformance in prior years suggest that this target might be difficult to achieve,” a group of analysts led by a Partner and Chief Economist, PwC Nigeria, Andrew Nevin, stated.

President Muhammadu Buhari had released a budget proposal last week showing a total expenditure of N8.612tn, with oil and non-oil accounting for 37 per cent and 63 per cent of its funding, respectively.

The budget assumed an oil price benchmark of $45 per barrel, oil production of 2.3 million barrels per day, and an exchange rate of N305 to $1.

The PwC argued the impact of the strategic measures by the government to expand the tax base and increase tax compliance to address the low tax to the GDP ratio of six per cent had yet to materialise.

They said, “Following this, we estimate that debt to GDP could rise marginally to 15.1 per cent (2017E: 14.6 per cent). This is closer to Nigeria’s country-specific threshold of 19.4 per cent, but still far below the IMF’s recommended threshold of 56 per cent.”

The PwC report stated, “Given our outlook of revenue underperformance, we expect a higher-than-expected deficit, which could bring the FG’s debt stock to N20.9tn in 2018 (2017E: N17.6tn).”

In its analysis of the budget’s inflationary risk, the multinational firm said the reflationary budget, which provided for a 12 per cent increase in personnel costs suggested inflation of the economy.

The report said, “Given a reduction in core inflation to 12.1 per cent year-on-year in September 2017, and our expectation of a continued moderation in inflation in the near term, we believe there is sufficient head-room for rate cut in the first quarter of 2018.

“History suggests that the commencement of the election cycle ahead of the 2019 general elections could portend significant inflationary risks, thus reducing the scope for monetary easing.”

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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Economy

South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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