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Inflationary Pressure Expected to Ease Further

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  • Inflationary Pressure Expected to Ease Further

The expected marginal decline in the inflation rate was premised on slower increase in the food and non-food divisions, compared with the previous month.

Based on the data release calendar on the website of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the bureau is expected to release the inflation rate for October 2017 on November 18, 2017.

The monthly Food Price Index (FPI) that the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) released recently showed that the Index averaged 176.4 points, 1.26 per cent lower than the revised value for September 2017, but 2.45 per cent higher than the October 2016 figure. According to the FAO, all categories of commodities used in the calculation of the Index dropped in value with the exception of cereal.

The FAO Dairy Index fell by 4.19 per cent from September 2017 as the prices of butter, skim milk powder (SMP) and whole milk powder (WMP) eased in October.

Also, analysis by FSDH Merchant Bank indicated that the value of the naira depreciated on the interbank market, while it appreciated on the parallel market.

Precisely, the naira lost by 0.02 per cent on the interbank market to close at US$/N305.80 while it gained 0.83 per cent on the parallel market to close at US$/N362.50 at the end of October.

“The naira appreciation in the parallel market and the drop in the prices of food at the international market led to a drop in the prices of some consumer goods in Nigeria.

“The prices of most of the food items we monitored in October 2017 moderated downwards, while a few items recorded price appreciation.

“The movement in the prices of food items during the month resulted in 0.85 per cent increase in our Food and Non-Alcoholic Index to 256 points.

“Our Food and Non-Alcoholic Index increased by 20.24% from 212.90 points in October 2016. We also noticed increase in the prices of Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels divisions between September 2017 and October 2017,” the bank stated.

Furthermore, it revealed in a report that itmodel indicated that the general price movement in the consumer goods and services in October 2017 increased the Composite Consumer Price Index (CCPI) to 243.04 points, representing a month-on-month increase of 0.77 per cent.

“We estimate that the increase in the CCPI in October 2017 would produce an inflation rate of 15.91 per cent marginally lower than the 15.98 per cent recorded in September 2017,” it added.

CEO/Founder Investors King Ltd, a foreign exchange research analyst, contributing author on New York-based Talk Markets and Investing.com, with over a decade experience in the global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Drop on Stronger U.S Dollar

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Crude oil - Investors King

The strong U.S Dollar pressured global crude oil prices on Thursday despite the big drop in U.S crude oil inventories.

The Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, dropped by 74 cents or 1 percent to settle at $73.65 a barrel at 4.03 am Nigerian time on Thursday.

The U.S West Texas Intermediate crude oil depreciated by 69 cents or 1 percent to $71.46 a barrel after reaching its highest since October 2018 on Wednesday.

Energy markets became so fixated over a robust summer travel season and Iran nuclear deal talks that they somewhat got blindsided by the Fed’s hawkish surprise,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA.

The Fed was expected to be on hold and punt this meeting, but they sent a clear message they are ready to start talking about tapering and that means the dollar is ripe for a rebound which should be a headwind for all commodities.

The U.S. dollar boasted its strongest single day gain in 15 months after the Federal Reserve signaled it might raise interest rates at a much faster pace than assumed.

A firmer greenback makes oil priced in dollars more expensive in other currencies, potentially weighing on demand.

Still, oil price losses were limited as data from the Energy Information Administration showed that U.S. crude oil stockpiles dropped sharply last week as refineries boosted operations to their highest since January 2020, signaling continued improvement in demand.

Also boosting prices, refinery throughput in China, the world’s second largest oil consumer, rose 4.4% in May from the same month a year ago to a record high.

This pullback in oil prices should be temporary as the fundamentals on both the supply and demand side should easily be able to compensate for a rebounding dollar,” Moya said.

 

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Crude Oil

Oil Rises as Threat of Immediate Iran Supply Recedes

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Oil prices rose on Tuesday, with Brent gaining for a fourth consecutive session, as the prospect of extra supply coming to the market soon from Iran faded with talks dragging on over the United States rejoining a nuclear agreement with Tehran.

Brent crude was up by 82 cents, or 1.13%, to $73.68 per barrel, having risen 0.2% on Monday. U.S. oil gained 91 cents, or 1.3%, to $71.79 a barrel, having slipped 3 cents in the previous session.

Indirect discussions between the United States and Iran, along with other parties to the 2015 deal on Tehran’s nuclear program, resumed on Saturday in Vienna and were described as “intense” by the European Union.

A U.S. return to the deal would pave the way for the lifting of sanctions on Iran that would allow the OPEC member to resume exports of crude.

It is “looking increasingly unlikely that we will see the U.S. rejoin the Iranian nuclear deal before the Iranian Presidential Elections later this week,” ING Economics said in a note.

Other members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) along with major producers including Russia — a group known as OPEC+ — have been withholding output to support prices amid the pandemic.

“Additional supply from OPEC+ will be needed over the second half of this year, with demand expected to continue its recovery,” ING said.

To meet rising demand, U.S. drillers are also increasing output.

U.S. crude production from seven major shale formations is forecast to rise by about 38,000 barrels per day (bpd) in July to around 7.8 million bpd, the highest since November, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its monthly outlook.

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Rise as Demand Improves, Supplies Tighten

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Oil Prices - Investors King

Oil prices rose on Monday, hitting their highest levels in more than two years supported by economic recovery and the prospect of fuel demand growth as vaccination campaigns in developed countries accelerate.

Brent was up 53 cents, or 0.7%, at $73.22 a barrel by 1050 GMT, its highest since May 2019.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate gained 44 cents, or 0.6%, to $71.35 a barrel, its highest since October 2018.

“The two leading crude markers are trading at (almost) two-and-a-half-year highs amid a potent bullish cocktail of demand optimism and OPEC+ supply cuts,” said Stephen Brennock of oil broker PVM.

“This backdrop of strengthening oil fundamentals have helped underpin heightened levels of trading activity.”

Motor vehicle traffic is returning to pre-pandemic levels in North America and much of Europe, and more planes are in the air as anti-coronavirus lockdowns and other restrictions are being eased, driving three weeks of increases for the oil benchmarks.

The mood was also buoyed by the G7 summit where the world’s wealthiest Western countries sought to project an image of cooperation on key issues such as recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and the donation of 1 billion vaccine doses to poor nations.

“If the inoculation of the global population accelerates further, that could mean an even faster return of the demand that is still missing to meet pre-Covid levels,” said Rystad Energy analyst Louise Dickson.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Friday that it expected global demand to return to pre-pandemic levels at the end of 2022, more quickly than previously anticipated.

IEA urged the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies, known as OPEC+, to increase output to meet the rising demand.

The OPEC+ group has been restraining production to support prices after the pandemic wiped out demand in 2020, maintaining strong compliance with agreed targets in May.

On the supply side, heavy maintenance seasons in Canada and the North Sea also helped prices stay high, Dickson said.

U.S. oil rigs in operation rose by six to 365, the highest since April 2020, energy services company Baker Hughes Co said in its weekly report.

It was the biggest weekly increase of oil rigs in a month, as drilling companies sought to benefit from rising demand.

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