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Forex Weekly Outlook November 6-10

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  • Forex Weekly Outlook November 6-10

The US Federal Reserve left the interest rates unchanged last week, citing weak wage growth and low inflation rate. However, the US dollar sustained its earlier gains even though the labor market added fewer jobs than expected in October. The services sector expanded 60.1 and personal spending climbed 1.0 percent in October, up from 0.1 percent in September.

In the UK, the Bank of England raised interest rates for the first time in more than 10 years. The apex bank increased benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 0.5 percent, saying escalating inflation is eroding consumer buying power and business profits.

Here are my pick for this week;

AUDJPY

The Australian dollar dipped last week on weaker than expected retail sales number in September. Sales went flat in the month, following a 0.5 percent decline in August. This was after consumer prices climbed just 0.6 percent in the third quarter, also less than projected. Weak wage growth and rising household debt continued to hurt household income and subsequently weighed on consumer spending.

AUDJPYWeekly

As explained during the week, stable Japanese Yen is more attractive because of its haven status and strong economic fundamental. Technically, AUDJPY closed below the 88.17 price level and 20-day moving average last week. Indicating that weak economic fundamentals and low business confidence are still impacting Aussie dollar attractiveness.

Therefore, this week I remain bearish on AUDJPY with 86.34 support as the target.

GBPUSD

After the Bank of England raised rates last week, the pound fell across board because of Governor Mark Carney’s comment that the economy is fragile due to weak new business investment and sluggish wage growth. The market interpreted the comment as no rate hike in 2018, forcing traders to pare their 2018 rates bet.

GBPUSDWeekly

Since I first mentioned this pair two weeks ago, it has dropped about 218 pips. However, while it closed below the ascending trendline and as a bearish pin bar to hit our target 1 at 1.3046 support level. We need a close below that level to validate bearish continuation. This is because U.K. economy is resilience with Manufacturing, Construction and Services sectors expanding more than expected last month. Even though inflation rate is high and wage growth remains weak, consumers continued to support the economy.

This week, I will look to sell GBPUSD below 1.3046 support level for 1.2868 and expect a sustained break of that level to open up target 2.

GBPCAD

Similarly, the Pound failed to sustain its gain against the Canadian dollar last week after rallying above the descending trendline as shown below.

GBPCADWeekly

But because of the surge in commodity prices, the Canadian dollar gained across the board last week. This includes the Pound.

Again, the GBPCAD closed below the descending trendline last week and as a bearish pin bar to validate downside continuation. Therefore, this week I am bearish on GBPCAD as long as price remains below the descending trendline with 1.6497 as the target.

AUDUSD

AUDUSDDaily

 I remain bearish on AUDUSD as explained last week.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Naira

Dollar to Naira Black Market Today, April 19th, 2024

As of April 19th, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,100 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

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New Naira Notes

As of April 19th, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,100 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

For those engaging in currency transactions in the Lagos Parallel Market (Black Market), buyers purchase a dollar for N1,020 and sell it at N1,010 on Thursday, April 18th, 2024 based on information from Bureau De Change (BDC).

Meaning, the Naira exchange rate declined slightly when compared to today’s rate below.

This black market rate signifies the value at which individuals can trade their dollars for Naira outside the official or regulated exchange channels.

Investors and participants closely monitor these parallel market rates for a more immediate reflection of currency dynamics.

How Much is Dollar to Naira Today in the Black Market?

Kindly be aware that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not acknowledge the existence of the parallel market, commonly referred to as the black market.

The CBN has advised individuals seeking to participate in Forex transactions to utilize official banking channels.

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate

  • Buying Rate: N1,100
  • Selling Rate: N1,090

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Naira

Naira’s Recent Gain Reflects Policy Direction, Says CBN Chief Olayemi Cardoso

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Naira Exchange Rates - Investors King

Olayemi Cardoso, Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), has explained that the recent surge in the Naira is a testament to the positive direction of government policies rather than active intervention to defend the currency’s value.

Addressing attendees at the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank in Washington, Governor Cardoso underscored that the CBN’s intention is not to artificially prop up the Naira.

He clarified that the fluctuations observed in the country’s foreign exchange reserves were not aimed at defending the currency but rather aligning with broader economic goals.

Over the past month, the Naira has experienced a notable uptick in value against the dollar, signaling a reversal from previous declines. Data from Bloomberg reveals a 6.4% decrease in liquid reserves since March 18, coinciding with the Naira’s rebound.

Despite this decline, Cardoso pointed out that around $600 million had flowed into the reserves in the past two days, reflecting confidence in the Nigerian market.

Governor Cardoso articulated the CBN’s vision of a market-driven exchange rate system, emphasizing the importance of allowing market forces to determine exchange rates through willing buyers and sellers.

He expressed optimism about a future where the central bank’s intervention in the foreign exchange market would be minimal, except in extraordinary circumstances.

The recent resilience of the Naira follows a period of volatility earlier in the year, marked by a substantial devaluation in January. Since then, the CBN has implemented measures to stabilize the currency, including monetary tightening and initiatives to enhance dollar liquidity.

Cardoso highlighted the transformation in market sentiment, noting that investors now perceive Nigeria’s central bank as committed to stabilizing inflation and fostering economic stability.

As Nigeria continues its journey toward economic recovery and stability, Cardoso’s remarks provide insight into the central bank’s strategy and its impact on the country’s currency dynamics.

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Naira

Dollar to Naira Black Market Today, April 18th, 2024

As of April 18th, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,020 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

Published

on

New Naira Notes

As of April 18th, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,020 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

For those engaging in currency transactions in the Lagos Parallel Market (Black Market), buyers purchase a dollar for N1,050 and sell it at N1,040 on Wednesday, April 17th, 2024 based on information from Bureau De Change (BDC).

Meaning, the Naira exchange rate improved when compared to today’s rate below.

This black market rate signifies the value at which individuals can trade their dollars for Naira outside the official or regulated exchange channels.

Investors and participants closely monitor these parallel market rates for a more immediate reflection of currency dynamics.

How Much is Dollar to Naira Today in the Black Market?

Kindly be aware that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not acknowledge the existence of the parallel market, commonly referred to as the black market.

The CBN has advised individuals seeking to participate in Forex transactions to utilize official banking channels.

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate

  • Buying Rate: N1,020
  • Selling Rate: N1,010

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