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EURGBP Weekly Outlook October 30 – November 3

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  • EURGBP Weekly Outlook October 30 – November 3

Since peaking at 0.9305 in August, this pair has lost 477 pips and will close this month as a bearish pin bar. Indicating increase in selling pressure following the surge in UK’s headline inflation to 3 percent. Higher than the Bank of England’s 2 percent target.

This, increase in price pressures prompt the market to price in higher rate increase from the Bank of England in November, which subsequently strengthens the Pound against the Euro common currency.

Again, while the U.K. key economic sectors have started showing signs of slowing down due to the ongoing Brexit negotiation. The much stronger Euro-area is facing growing uncertainty with the Spain-Catalonia independence and weak inflation rate.

This is one of the reasons, the Euro plunged against G10 currencies last week after the European Central Bank left interest rate at zero percent.

EURGBP Weekly Outlook October 30 – November 3

However, with the Bank of England due to raise rates on Thursday, this pair could well be heading below the 0.8717 support level. Especially with the ECB refusal to raise rates just yet and reiterated that high foreign exchange rate is hurting productivity and subduing prices.

Therefore, as previously explained in September. I will expect this pair to close below the 0.8717 targets this week and a sustained break of that support level, depending on the voting numbers, to further open up 0.8557 targets in days to come.

Since the EURGBP called the top on August 29, this pair has plunged by 192 pips. However, last week, this pair closed below the 20-day moving average for the first time since July 14. A sign of Pound resilience and ECB monetary policy stance. Therefore, if consumer prices due on Tuesday shows inflation rises from the current 2.6 percent to the projected 2.8 percent, the Bank of England stance on interest rate hike is likely to change as escalating inflation rate is predicted to force the apex bank to raise rates regardless of the Brexit outcome. If happened, it will boost the Pound temporarily. An excerpt from forex weekly outlook of September 11-15.

CEO/Founder Investors King Ltd, a foreign exchange research analyst, contributing author on New York-based Talk Markets and Investing.com, with over a decade experience in the global financial markets.

Naira

Naira Exchange Rates; Monday, May 17, 2021

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Naira - Investors King

The Nigerian Naira opened the week at N484 to a United States Dollar on Monday at the parallel market. The local currency remained stable against the  British Pound at N678 and N581 to a single Euro.

Naira Black Market Exchange Rates

Morning * Midday** Evening *** Final Rates

Date USD GBP EURO YUAN Canadian Australian
NGN BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL
17/05/2021 480/484 670/678 577/581 62/68 390/402 292/320
14/05/2021 480/484 670/680 576/581 62/69 390/400 292/320
13/05/2021 479/483 665/673 576/581 62/69 391/402 292/320
12/05/2021 479/483 665/673 576/581 62/69 395/400 292/320

Bureau De Change Naira Rates

Date USD GBP EURO
NGN BUY/SELL BUY/SELL BUY/SELL
17/05/21 475/482 670/677 575/584
15/05/21 475/482 670/677 575/584
14/05/21 475/482 670/677 575/584
13/05/21 475/482 665/674 573/584
12/05/21 475/482 665/674 573/584

Central Bank of Nigeria’s Official Naira Rates

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Forex

Nigeria’s Diaspora Remittances Decline by 28 Percent to $16.8 Billion in 2020

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US dollar - Investors King

Nigeria’s diaspora remittances declined by 27.7 percent or $4.65 billion from $21.45 billion in 2019 to $16.8 billion in 2020, according to the World Bank Migration and Development report.

A critical look into the report shows remittances to sub-Saharan Africa declined by 12.5 percent in 2020 to $42 billion. This was largely due to the 27.7 percent recorded by Africa’s largest economy, Nigeria, which accounted for over 40 percent of the total remittance inflows into the region.

The report noted that once Nigeria’s remittance inflows into the region are excluded, remittances grew by 2.3 percent in 2020 with Zambia recording 37 per cent.

Followed by 16 percent from Mozambique, 9 percent from Kenya and 5 percent from Ghana.

The decline was a result of the global lockdown that dragged on the livelihood of most diaspora and unclear economic policies.

In an effort to change the tide, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) introduced a Naira 4 Dollar Scheme to reverse the downward trend and boost diaspora inflows into the economy.

However, the reports revealed that other external factors like insecurities, global slow down, weak macroeconomic fundamentals, etc continue to discourage capital inflows.

On Tuesday, the CBN, in a new directive, announced it has halved dollar cash deposit from $10,000 to $5000 per month.

The move is geared towards discouraging overreliance on the United States Dollar and encourage local patronage and production.

Mr. Guy Czartoryski, Head of Research at Coronation Asset Management, had said in the report, “We looked at the top 10 banks and the breakdown of their deposits showed that 40 per cent of their deposits are in dollars and it is quite astonishing.”

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Deposit Money Banks Reduce Dollar-Cash Deposits by 50 Percent to $5000/Month

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United States Dollar - Investors King Ltd

Nigeria’s Deposit Money Banks (DMBs) have reduced the amount of United States Dollars that customers can deposit into their domiciliary accounts by 50 percent from $10,000 to $5,000 per month.

A bank official who preferred not to be mentioned confirmed the new policy to Investors King.

He, however, stated that the new policy does not apply to customers making electronic transfers as well as oil and gas companies and dollar payments into government accounts.

Checks revealed that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) introduced the new policy to discourage the strong appetite for the United States Dollar, which has continued to rise.

A recent report has shown that despite persistent dollar scarcity, around 40 percent of bank deposits in the nation’s top ten banks were in dollars.

Mr. Guy Czartoryski, Head of Research at Coronation Asset Management, had said in the report, “We looked at the top 10 banks and the breakdown of their deposits showed that 40 per cent of their deposits are in dollars and it is quite astonishing.”

According to an analyst at ARM Securities Limited, Mr. Olamofe Olayemi, “this has to do with how much confidence the people have in the naira. Over time, we have seen significant depreciation in the naira.

“If you look at what happened in 2020, no one expected that the naira would be devalued twice in that year and even the outlook, this year is suggesting further depreciation in the naira.

“So, it makes sense to a lot of people to store their money in dollars. But, from the CBN standpoint, you agree with me that there is dollar scarcity.”

He, therefore, argued that the new policy might discourage financial inclusion and encourage cash outside the banking system.

Again, it is important for the flow of money to be captured in the system,” he said.

The CBN had extended its Naira 4 Dollar Scheme last week to further encourage dollar inflow into the Nigerian economy.

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