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Don’t Expect Commodity Shake-up Next Year, W’Bank Tells Nigeria

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  • Don’t Expect Commodity Shake-up Next Year, W’Bank Tells Nigeria

The World Bank says the big drop in export commodity prices that led to significant economic shocks last year in commodity exporting countries including Nigeria may not occur in 2018.

According to the World Bank, countries trading in export commodities next year should look for small upticks in oil and crops prices.

But overall, raw-material prices may get stuck in a bit of a lull.

This was the summary of a report issued on Thursday by analysts for the Washington-based World Bank, Bloomberg reported.

The bank forecasts an index of energy products to climb by four per cent in 2018, while agricultural goods are expected to rise by 1.2 per cent and metals and minerals to drop by about 0.7 per cent.

The forecast came on the back of a rather ho-hum period for the asset class.

The Bloomberg Commodity Index tracking 22 products is down about two per cent this year and a measure of 60-day volatility has been waning since late July.

Prices have remained subdued by large stockpiles, a trend that may be poised to continue.

“Last year and this year, most commodity markets are well supplied,” a senior economist at the World Bank, John Baffes, said in a telephone interview with Bloomberg.

“We’ll not see a sort of major price increase for next year.”

Nigeria-based economic analyst, Mr. Johnson Chukwu, said the era of $100/barrel for oil price was over and that Nigerians should not expect that.

He said most analysts had predicted that oil price, Nigeria’s main source of foreign exchange and revenue, would hover around $53/barrel next year.

The World Bank forecasts in this latest report that oil price will average $56/barrel in 2018.

Chukwu said, “Well, if you look at where we were coming from last year when oil price averaged $45/barrel, the new forecast by the World Bank analysts is not too low for economic management in Nigeria.

What we should try to maintain is a good production level which fortunately is approaching two million barrels per day. But the 2.4mbpd output forecast by the Federal Government is optimistic, to me.”

According to the World Bank report, here are some of the bank’s expectations in terms of oil price next year.

Crude oil is expected to extend recent gains amid stronger use, moving from an average of $53 a barrel in 2017 to $56 next year, the bank forecasts.

Increases in production from nations outside the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries will gain at about the same rate as global demand, leaving stockpiles without a “meaningful” reduction.

After a strong year for coal prices because of reductions in Chinese supply, prices may drop ahead amid “environmental headwinds.”

For natural gas, demand is expected to be strong as chemical and fertilizer plants boost capacity and amid rising United States exports to Mexico and other countries.

Prices are expected to climb three per cent next year, the report said.

For precious metals, platinum may rise by four per cent next year as mine output wanes.

Meanwhile, gold and silver will face pressure from expected US interest rate increases.

Base metals surged this year amid strong demand from China and supply challenges.

Prices are expected to ease next year as declining iron-ore prices offset strength in other commodities, including lead, nickel and zinc.

Is the CEO and Founder of Investors King Limited. He is a seasoned foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Business Insider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and other prominent platforms. With over two decades of experience in global financial markets, Olukoya is well-recognized in the industry.

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Boosting Nigeria’s Digital Future: STEM Education and AI Could Add $15 Billion to Economy by 2030

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If Nigeria can enhance its Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math (STEM) education and prepare its workforce for future opportunities in the digital space, the economy could expand by an additional $15 billion, a new report has revealed.

The report, issued by consultancy Public First on Thursday, also indicated that Nigeria reaped an estimated $1.8 billion in economic benefits from Google’s tools and services in 2023.

Presenting the report in Lagos State, the Nigeria Digital Opportunity study highlighted the financial value contributed to the nation’s economy through services such as Google Search, Ads, Google Play, YouTube, and Google Cloud.

These services have played a significant role in boosting the productivity of Nigerian businesses, content creators, and workers.

It is no secret that a large number of young Nigerians have become tech-savvy, with many venturing into the thriving world of technology and content creation on social media platforms.

According to Google, its digital skills programs and career certificates are key drivers of Nigeria’s digital transformation, with over 1.5 million young Nigerians acquiring new digital skills in 2023.

Google’s Director for West Africa, Olumide Balogun, expressed the company’s satisfaction with the positive impact that digital technology is having on Nigeria’s economy.

He emphasized that the findings highlight the importance of continued investment in digital skills and infrastructure to unlock the full potential of Nigeria’s growing digital economy.

Balogun noted that with rapid digital advancements, particularly in areas such as cloud computing, connectivity, and artificial intelligence (AI), Nigeria is well-positioned to solidify its standing as a leading digital economy in Africa.

He advised the country to strengthen its technology policies, stating that Nigeria’s economic future will largely depend on its ability to harness technology. Balogun added that Google remains committed to supporting Nigeria’s journey through strategic investments and partnerships.

The report underscored the significant role digital technology plays in Nigeria’s economy, with Balogun noting that for every $1 invested in digital technology, the country generates over $8 in economic value.

Meanwhile, Google has called on Nigerian policymakers to prioritize STEM education to maximize the economic benefits of technology.

The report also projected that AI could contribute $15 billion to Nigeria’s economy by 2030.

Balogun highlighted Google’s efforts in promoting responsible AI development, noting that in 2021, the company committed $1 billion to support Africa’s digital economy.

He added that this initiative included the 2022 landing of the Equiano fiber-optic cable in Nigeria, which is expected to boost internet penetration by seven percent by 2025, significantly enhancing internet access and reliability.

Google also recommended that Nigerian policymakers adopt cloud-first strategies and strengthen the country’s digital infrastructure to harness the full potential of AI, while emphasizing the need for improved STEM education to prepare the workforce for future opportunities.

Amy Price, Director and Head of Technology Policy at Public First, praised Nigeria as a digital leader in Africa. She emphasized that tech investment will serve as a catalyst for further growth and development across the nation.

Price further highlighted the critical role AI will play in shaping Nigeria’s future economy, with the report estimating that AI could add $15 billion to the country’s GDP by 2030. She stressed that the nation must focus on building strong digital infrastructure and investing in STEM education to prepare its workforce for the jobs of tomorrow.

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Lawmakers to Deliberate on Nigerian Tax Reform Bills, Change of FIRS to NIRS

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The National Assembly is set to begin deliberations after receiving President Bola Tinubu’s communication seeking consideration and passage of the proposed Fiscal Policy and Tax Reform Bill to align with ongoing financial reforms of the Federal Government and enhance efficiency in tax compliance.

In addition to the Senate, the House of Representatives received four bills forwarded by the President. They include the Nigeria Tax Bill, the Nigeria Tax Administration Bill, the Nigeria Revenue Establishment Bill and the Joint Revenue Board Establishment Bill.

The Nigeria Revenue Service (Establishment) Bill seeks to repeal the Federal Inland Revenue Service (Establishment) Act, No. 13, 2007, and establishes the Nigeria Revenue Service, to assess, collect, and account for revenue accruable to the government of the federation.

The Transmission of Fiscal Policy and Tax Reform Bills to the National Assembly is The Nigeria Tax Bill, which seeks to provide a consolidated fiscal framework for taxation in Nigeria.

The Nigeria Tax Administration Bill seeks to provide a clear and concise legal framework for the fair, consistent and efficient administration of all the tax laws to facilitate ease of tax compliance, reduce tax disputes and optimize revenue.

Meanwhile, the Joint Revenue Board (Establishment) Bill aims to establish the Joint Revenue Board, the Tax Appeal Tribunal and the Office of the Tax Ombudsman for the harmonization, coordination and settlement of disputes arising from revenue administration in Nigeria.

This comes after President Tinubu during his speech on Nigeria’s 64th Independence Anniversary on Tuesday (October 1) said some Economic Stabilisation Bills would be transmitted to the National Assembly.

“We are moving ahead with our fiscal policy reforms. To stimulate our productive capacity and create more jobs and prosperity, the Federal Executive Council approved the Economic Stabilisation Bills, which will now be transmitted to the National Assembly.

“These transformative bills will make our business environment more friendly, stimulate investment and reduce the tax burden on businesses and workers once they are passed into law,” he said.

Recently, the Chairman of the Presidential Taskforce on Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms Committee, Mr Taiwo Oyedele, said the Withholding Tax Regulations 2024 has been gazetted.

“I do have some good news, the good news is that the withholding tax regulation has now been gazetted. So, the only reason it hasn’t been published today is because it is public holiday, so first thing tomorrow you will see a copy of the gazette and that provides a lot of relief not just for manufacturers but also every other business in terms of taking away some of the burdens of funding their working capital,” Mr Oyedele said.

Nigeria has been seeking to harmonise its tax base as it has a tax-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio of 10.8 percent; comparatively, the average tax-to-GDP ratio for Africa is about 18 percent.

 

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Nigerians Can Now Check Food Prices Live on Mobile App, Says BOI

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The Bank of Industry (BOI) has launched a mobile app for Nigerians to check live food prices in the country.

The web version, Pricesense.ng helps users check the wholesale and retail prices of food items such as rice, beans, tomato, maize and others in different states across the country.

According to BOI, the states available for checking of the prices are Borno, Plateau, Rivers, Oyo, FCT, Lagos, Enugu and Kano.

It noted that the app provides for analytics of food prices across brand type, quantity and at different dates of the year.

One of the challenges currently assailing Nigerians is food.

However, prices of food vary from state to state. Hence, the decision of BOI to come up with the app so that Nigerians would be abreast of the current prices of food in states and take necessary steps that would better suit their conditions.

Aside from food insecurity, food prices have been on the rise since the inception of President Bola Tinubu’s administration.

As at June 2024, food inflation crossed 40 percent while many poor Nigerians languish in acute hunger.

There are many factors responsible for the food shortage and inflation of prices.

Some of them are lack of fertile policies by the Federal and State Governments, disruption in regular weather patterns, insecurity in food-producing regions and high cost of farm inputs such as fertilisers among others.

The Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission (FCCPC) had accused traders of price gouging leading to the high cost of staple foods in the country.

The FCCPC boss, Mr. Tunji Bello, stated that some traders forming cartels in markets across the country are responsible for the sharp rise in food prices.

While the commission acknowledged that factors like the exchange rate and the increase in petrol prices have made previous prices unsustainable, it criticized the disproportionate price hikes, which Mr. Bello attributed to cartels seeking to exploit consumers.

The commission this year had closed some supermarkets it accused of unethical market practices with respect to prices of goods. Furthermore, the commission had earlier ordered traders across the country to crash prices of goods and services within one month or face its actions.

Also, some notable traditional rulers in the country, especially in the South West, had accused some leaders of traders of forcing others to sell at fixed prices.

These monarchs including the Ooni of Ife, Oba Enitan Ogunwusi and late Owa Obokun of Ijesaland, Oba Gabriel Adekunle Aromolaran had banned market union associations in their domains from fixing prices of food items for traders and neither should they force them from joining associations.

However, some international development organisations like the World Bank, International Rescue Committee (IRC) and the Food and Agricultural Organisation (FA0) had predicted record number of food insecure people in the country for 2024.

In particular, the World Bank noted that around seven states in the country would witness severe hunger while the FAO noted that up to 32 million Nigerians in 2024 would be food insecure with women and children mostly affected.

Efforts by the federal government to quell the crisis include the approval of duty-free food imports for 150 days and distribution of grains to all 36 states of the federation.

Furthermore, the federal government has also begun the sale of rice at a discount price of N40,000 per 50kg bag.

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