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Ghana Eyes W’Africa’s Petroleum Hub Ahead of Nigeria

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Oil Prices - Investors King
  • Ghana Eyes W’Africa’s Petroleum Hub Ahead of Nigeria

While Nigeria has continued to grapple with challenges in the downstream sector of its oil and gas industry after several decades of oil production, its West African counterpart, Ghana, is gearing up to become a petroleum hub.

Ghana began crude oil production in 2010, more than 50 years after Nigeria started commercial production of the commodity.

“The vision of the government of Ghana for the downstream petroleum industry is to ensure that the industry becomes a petroleum hub in the sub-region,” the Deputy Minister of Energy, Ghana, Dr. Mohammed Adam, said in Lagos at the 11th Oil Trading and Logistics Expo.

According to him, the government of Ghana is currently developing a downstream petroleum infrastructure master plan aimed at enhancing the pace of infrastructure sourcing with a regional context in mind.

“Our unique geographical position, democratic stability and security require that we provide leadership in building an integrated infrastructure to serve the sub-regional petroleum industry,” he said.

Adam noted that the acute petroleum infrastructure deficit in Africa had led to overdependence on the refineries of other continents.

He said “Our petroleum industry infrastructure such as ports, jetties and tank farms are not only inadequate but are in deplorable state. This has increased the cost of importing products and helped build an offshore black market, which is not regulated and from which our governments do not earn any tax income.

“It is, therefore, quite refreshing to note that a major development in Nigeria relating to the proposed $12bn investment in a 650,000 barrel per day refinery has caught the attention of the world. This massive private sector initiative has sent hope to other African countries on the viability of investing in a huge refinery.”

The deputy minister said the country had fully deregulated the industry with the exception of residual fuel oil and premix fuel, still being regulated by the government.

“I wish to call on the Nigerian government to make efforts at reaching full price deregulation given that it is the largest market for products; and any failure on its part can distort the sub-regional market we all envisage.”

The Chief Executive Officer, National Petroleum Authority, Ghana, Mr. Alhassan Tampuli, said the country had reduced sulphur content in fuel from 3,000ppm to 50ppm after missing two timelines.

“Currently products that we bring into the country, both gasoline and gas oil, have to be in accordance with these quality assurances. When Nigeria comes on board together with Ghana, we would have about 70 per cent of the consumption in West African region complying with the new specification. We export to Burkina Faso, Mali and to some extent Niger, and I believe Nigeria also exports to many other countries,” he said.

The Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Dr. Ibe Kachikwu, said Nigeria’s downstream sector, which was fully subsidised, had been partially liberalised by tackling the issue of pricing governance, efficiency and sustainability.

He, however, said the downstream sector would continue to experience challenges as long as the nation could not locally refine its domestic consumption needs.

The minister, who was represented by an official from the ministry, Mr. Busari Kamoru, said, “Our domestic refining inefficiencies have exposed us to macro-economic elements such as the rising cost of crude oil, and volatility of the foreign exchange market. An increase in crude price leads to a corresponding increase in the price of refined products, which gives the government a systemic challenge in trying to maintain affordable and sustainable supply to the local consumers.

“With crude oil hovering around $50, marketers have shifted back on importation due to cash illiquidity to source foreign exchange, leaving the NNPC to bear almost 95 per cent of the importation needs, thus absorbing the deficit of the cost of importing petroleum products to ensure supply stability.”

Highlighting financing as part of the major challenges currently plaguing the nation’s downstream sector, Kachikwu said, “A lot of money is being owed to marketers from the subsidy era and to local companies who are suffering cash constraints.”

He said the solutions to the impediments would include attracting investment into refining sector and embarking on massive rehabilitation of the existing national refineries as well as establishment of additional Greenfield and modular refineries.

He said, “Paying up outstanding subsidy debts to enhance liquidity in the sector and working with the Central Bank of Nigeria in ensuring availability and access of foreign exchange for every strand of petroleum products” would improve the ability of local companies to do business in the downstream sector.

“Going forward, the government will continue to ensure required exchange liquidity remains available, transparent and efficient to marketers who are importing petroleum products until such a time when we shall no longer have the need to import products,” the minister added.

“This will safely lead us to a point where we can minimise and eventually eliminate importation of petroleum products,” he added.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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President Tinubu Defends Tough Economic Decisions at World Economic Forum

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Bola Tinubu

President Bola Tinubu stood firm in defense of Nigeria’s recent tough economic decisions during his address at the World Economic Forum in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

Speaking to a gathering of global business leaders, Tinubu justified the removal of fuel subsidies and the management of Nigeria’s foreign exchange market as necessary measures to prevent the country from bankruptcy and reset its economy towards growth.

In his speech, Tinubu acknowledged the challenges and drawbacks associated with these decisions but emphasized that they were in the best interest of Nigeria.

He described the removal of fuel subsidies as a difficult yet essential action to avert bankruptcy and ensure the country’s economic stability.

Despite the expected difficulties, Tinubu highlighted the government’s efforts to implement parallel arrangements to cushion the impact on vulnerable populations, demonstrating a commitment to inclusive governance.

Regarding the management of the foreign exchange market, Tinubu emphasized the need to remove artificial value elements in Nigeria’s currency to foster competitiveness and transparency.

While acknowledging the turbulence associated with such decisions, he underscored the government’s preparedness to manage the challenges through inclusive governance and effective communication with the public.

Moreover, Tinubu used the platform to call on the global community to pay attention to the root causes of poverty and instability in Africa’s Sahel region.

He emphasized the importance of economic collaborations and inclusiveness in achieving stability and growth, urging bigger economies to actively participate in promoting prosperity in the region.

Tinubu’s defense of Nigeria’s economic policies reflects the government’s commitment to making tough but necessary decisions to steer the country towards sustainable growth and development.

As the world grapples with geopolitical tensions, inflation, and supply chain disruptions, Tinubu’s message at the World Economic Forum underscores the importance of collaborative action and inclusive governance in addressing critical global challenges.

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Economy

IMF: Nigeria’s 2024 Growth Outlook Revised Upward – Coronation Economic Note

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IMF - Investors King

In its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO), the IMF revised its global growth forecast for 2024 upward to 3.2% y/y from 3.1% y/y projected in its January ’24 WEO.

Meanwhile, the growth outlook for 2025 was unchanged at 3.2% y/y. It is worth highlighting that global growth projections for 2024 and 2025 remain below the historical (2000-2019) average of 3.8%.

Persistence inflationary pressure, turbulence in China’s property sector, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and financial stress continue to pose downside risk to global growth projection.

There was an upward growth revision for United States to 2.7% y/y from 2.1% y/y. The upward revision can be partly attributed to a stronger than expected growth in the US economy in Q4 ‘23 bolstered by healthier consumption patterns; stronger momentum is expected in 2024.

Growth in China remains steady at 4.6% y/y. This is consistent with the projection recorded in its January ’24 WEO, as post pandemic boost to consumption and fiscal stimulus eases off amid headwinds in the property sector. We expect a loosening or a hold stance in the near-term as China continues to seek ways to bolster its economy.

On the flip side, GDP growth was revised downward (marginally) for the Eurozone to 0.8% y/y from 0.9% y/y (in its January ’23 WEO) for 2024. The growth projection for the United Kingdom was also revised downwards to 0.5% y/y from 0.6% y/y.

Russia’s growth forecast was revised upward to 3.2% y/y from 2.6% y/y (in its January ’24 WEO) for 2024. This revision was largely due to high investment and robust private consumption supported by wage growth.

The projection for average global inflation was revised upward to 5.9% y/y for 2024 from 5.8% y/y (in its January ’24 WEO), with an expectation of a decline to 4.5% y/y in 2025.

This is reflective of the cooling effects of monetary policy tightening across advanced and emerging economies.

Based on IMF projections, we anticipate a swifter decline in headline inflation rates averaging near 2% in 2025 among advanced economies before the avg. inflation figure for developing economies returns to pre-pandemic rate of c.5%.

This is driven by tight monetary policies, softening labor markets, and the fading passthrough effects from earlier declines in relative prices, notably energy prices.

We understand that moderations in headline inflation have prompted central banks of select economies to slow down on further policy rate hikes.

For instance, the US Federal Reserve may consider rate cuts three times this year if macro-indicators align with expectations. Also, the UK and ECB are likely to reduce their level of policy restriction if they become more confident that inflation is moving towards the 2% target.

The growth forecast for sub-Saharan Africa remains steady at 3.8% y/y for 2024. The unchanged projection can be partly attributed to expectations around growth dynamics in Angola, notably contraction in its oil sector, which was offset by an upward revision for Nigeria’s GDP growth estimate.

For Nigeria, IMF revised its 2024 growth forecast upward to 3.3% y/y from 3.0% y/y (in its January ’24 WEO). This revision partly reflects the elevated oil price environment. Bonny Light has increased by 14.6% from the start of the year to USD89.3/b (as at April 2024).

Other upside risks include relatively stable growth in select sectors, improved fx market dynamics as well as ongoing restrictive monetary stance by the CBN.

Nigeria’s headline inflation has steadily recorded upticks (currently at 33.2% y/y as of March ‘24). Our end-year inflation forecast (base-case scenario) is 35.8% y/y. The ongoing geopolitical tension could exacerbate supply chain disruptions, driving commodity prices, and exerting pressure on purchasing
power.

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Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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