Forex

Forex Weekly Outlook October 23-27

Published

7 years ago

October 22, 2017

Forex Weekly Outlook October 23-27

The US dollar rebounded last week after the senate adopted 2018 fiscal budget. However, the weaker than expected inflation rate, 0.5 percent, and retail sales, 1.6 percent, remain concerns as the Federal Reserve prepares to start unwinding its balance sheet in October.

In Europe, the Brexit got a huge support from German Chancellor Angela Merkel in a move believed by most to have broken Brexit deadlock. Merkel refuted the general assertion that Brexit negotiation won’t succeed, she said “there is zero indication that Brexit talks won’t succeed and she “truly” wants an agreement rather than an “unpredictable resolution.”

This week, I will be reviewing our last week’s pick, AUDJPY, NZDUSD, AUDUSD, NZDJPY, and USDJPY.

AUDJPY

The Australian dollar gained against the Japanese Yen last week to close above the 88.17 price level.

This was because of the uncertainty surrounding the Japanese Yen prior to the October 22 election as explained in the weekly outlook. However, with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe winning the election and securing a two-thirds parliamentary majority. He now has the mandate to go ahead and revise Japan’s pacifist constitution and sustain his Abenomics.

Therefore, the strong Japanese economy and growing export amid likely surge in investment inflow this week should aid the attractiveness of the Japanese Yen against the overpriced Australian dollar. This week, I remain bearish on AUDJPY pair and will look to sell below the 88.17 support level for 86.34 targets.

NZDUSD

As explained during the week, the uncertainty surrounding the New Zealand dollar and the success of the 2018 fiscal budget with the US senate boosted the NZDUSD selloff last week.

However, until the New Zealand First coalition announces its economic growth plan, investors will continue to pull out money from the market. So this week, I remain bearish on this pair with 0.6892 as the target.

AUDUSD

AUDUSD remains on track for 0.7784 targets as explained last week. But Australian inflation rate due on Wednesday will confirm pricing and its impact on highly indebted Australian household.

Hence, I remain bearish on this pair and will look to add to my position below the 0.7784 support level.

NZDJPY

Similarly, the NZDJPY should break 78.83 support level now that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has won convincingly.

Again, if the new coalition party failed to present a holistic economic plan in coming days amid rising food prices and weak wage growth. NZDJPY may head towards 2017 low of 75.61 support level. Therefore, our forex weekly outlook Oct 16-20 holds. This is an excerpt from last week analysis.

USDPY

Both the US and Japan’s economic fundamental are strong but the likely surge in the Japanese assets in the aftermath of the election should strengthen the Yen against the dollar and weigh on this pair outlook going forward. Therefore, I would expect a pullback from 113.49 towards 111.81 support level.

Therefore, USDJPY may touch 114.43 resistance level per adventure Shinzo Abe lose the election or win with a slight margin that gives voice to the opposition in parliament. A convincing victory would strengthen Yen against the US dollar to 111.81 support. This is an excerpt from last week analysis.

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Samed Olukoya

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Black Market Rate

EFCC Raids Wuse Zone 4 Market, Clashes with Bureau De Change Operators

Published

4 hours ago

May 8, 2024

Samed Olukoya

Tensions escalated in the bustling Wuse Zone 4 Market as operatives from the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) conducted a raid targeting Bureau De Change (BDC) operators on Tuesday.

The raid, intended to curb illegal currency trading and enforce regulatory compliance, quickly turned confrontational, resulting in clashes between the EFCC agents and currency traders.

Eyewitnesses reported scenes of chaos as the operatives attempted to apprehend BDC operators, who resisted the arrests vehemently.

The situation escalated to the point where gunshots were fired, and vehicles belonging to the EFCC were damaged.

Two currency traders, speaking anonymously, confirmed the events, citing frustration and desperation among the traders as the underlying cause of the resistance.

According to one witness, who requested anonymity for fear of reprisal, the traders’ reaction was fueled by their perception that the EFCC’s arrests were becoming excessively frequent and motivated primarily by a desire to extort money from them.

“Yesterday (Monday), they arrested traders, but they faced resistance today. People are getting tired and desperate,” the witness explained.

Another trader echoed similar sentiments, warning that continued raids by the anti-corruption agency could escalate into violence and potentially lead to fatalities. “If this thing continues like this, that means they would kill people,” the trader cautioned.

The growing frustration among traders stems from their belief that the EFCC’s actions, which often culminate in monetary fines, serve more as revenue-generating measures than effective regulatory enforcement.

The EFCC’s resurgence in raiding activities is part of its broader efforts to stabilize the Nigerian naira and combat illegal currency speculation.

In recent weeks, the commission has intensified its crackdown on suspected currency speculators and fraudulent foreign exchange practices.

However, despite these efforts, the naira has continued to depreciate, reflecting the challenges facing Nigeria’s foreign exchange market.

Traders at the Wuse Zone 4 Market highlighted the market’s volatility, with fluctuations in exchange rates making it increasingly difficult to predict trading outcomes. One trader, identified as Malam Yahu, expressed concern over the market’s instability and the challenges it poses for traders.

“Right now, the market is just fluctuating, and the naira is not stable at all,” he lamented. Yahu highlighted the impact of the EFCC raids on trading activities, noting how traders refrained from transactions to avoid potential losses.

At the official market, data from the FMDQ exchange securities revealed a sharp depreciation of the naira, raising concerns about rapid fluctuations and market volatility.

The intraday high and low of the naira against the dollar further underscored the challenges facing Nigeria’s foreign exchange market.

As the EFCC continues its crackdown on illicit currency trading, the clashes in the Wuse Zone 4 Market serve as a stark reminder of the underlying tensions and frustrations prevalent among currency traders.

The agency faces the daunting task of balancing enforcement actions with addressing the root causes of illegal trading, amidst ongoing challenges in Nigeria’s foreign exchange market.

Forex

Nigerian Companies Settle Dollar Debts as Central Bank Reforms Bolster Forex Liquidity

Published

5 hours ago

May 8, 2024

Samed Olukoya

In a significant development for Nigeria’s corporate landscape, several major companies have begun to settle their long-standing dollar debts following the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) recent reforms that bolstered dollar supply.

The reforms have provided much-needed relief to businesses grappling with forex scarcity and overdue obligations.

Among the notable firms taking advantage of the improved forex liquidity are MTN Nigeria Communications Plc, BUA Foods Plc, and Cadbury Schweppes Overseas Ltd.’s Nigeria unit.

These companies, some of the largest players in Africa’s most populous nation, have reported that they are now able to access dollars to meet their foreign currency obligations, marking a stark reversal from previous struggles with forex shortages.

MTN Nigeria, the country’s leading mobile operator, disclosed that it utilized the enhanced liquidity in the forex market to significantly reduce its letters of credit obligations by 41.6%, slashing it down to $243.4 million from $416.6 million in December.

Chief Financial Officer Modupe Kadiri emphasized this move as a strategic measure to mitigate losses during an investor conference call last week.

The Central Bank of Nigeria’s reform measures, implemented since the beginning of the year, have been instrumental in driving this positive change. These measures include raising the benchmark interest rate by 600 basis points to attract capital inflows and abandoning the currency’s peg, allowing the market to determine the exchange rate of the naira.

After years of unconventional currency management that deterred investors and exacerbated forex scarcity, these reforms have injected new life into Nigeria’s forex market.

According to Tatonga Rusike, a sub-Saharan Africa economist at Bank of America Corp., portfolio flows have responded positively to the reforms, leading to a substantial increase in average daily forex turnover, which has more than doubled from 2023 lows.

Recent data from Chapel Hill Denham indicates a remarkable surge in dollar liquidity, with a 90% jump to $160.8 million on Tuesday compared to the previous day.

Also, the central bank’s proactive approach, including selling dollars to money traders to enhance distribution to retail users, has further contributed to the improved forex liquidity environment.

The positive impact of increased dollar liquidity is evident across various sectors of the Nigerian economy.

BUA Foods, the country’s largest food and beverage company, reported a 6% reduction in debts during the first quarter of this year, attributed to improved dollar availability.

Similarly, Cadbury Nigeria has been able to fulfill all its dollar requirements from the official market since the beginning of the year, leading to a drop in local-currency cash reserves.

Economists and industry experts view the enhanced forex liquidity as a welcome development that provides companies with a much-needed reprieve to settle debts and navigate the effects of currency devaluation.

Adetilewa Adebajo, economist and chief executive at Lagos-based CFG Advisory, emphasized the importance of sustaining liquidity to support the turnaround desired by companies.

He stressed the need for positive real rates, matching interest rates with inflation, and fiscal responsibility to ensure continued economic stability and growth.

As Nigerian companies take advantage of improved forex liquidity to address long-standing financial challenges, the success of the central bank’s reforms will be closely monitored, with hopes for sustained liquidity and economic recovery in the months ahead.

Naira

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate Today 8th May 2024

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 8th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,440.

Published

5 hours ago

May 8, 2024

Samed Olukoya

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 8th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,440.

Recent data from Bureau De Change (BDC) reveals that buyers in the Lagos Parallel Market purchased a dollar for ₦1,430 and sold it at ₦1,420 on Tuesday, May 7th, 2024.

This indicates a decline in the Naira exchange rate compared to the current rate.

The black market rate plays a crucial role for investors and participants, offering a real-time reflection of currency dynamics outside official or regulated exchange channels.

Monitoring these rates provides insights into the immediate value of the Naira against the dollar, guiding decision-making processes for individuals and businesses alike.

It’s important to note that while the black market offers valuable insights, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not officially recognize its existence.

The CBN advises individuals engaging in forex transactions to utilize official banking channels, emphasizing the importance of compliance with regulatory frameworks.

How much is dollar to naira today in the black market

For those navigating the currency exchange landscape, here are the latest figures for the black market exchange rate:

Buying Rate: ₦1,440
Selling Rate: ₦1,430

As economic conditions continue to evolve, staying informed about currency exchange rates empowers individuals to make informed financial decisions. While the black market provides immediate insights, adherence to regulatory guidelines ensures stability and transparency in forex transactions.