Connect with us

Economy

Crude Oil Prices to Average $53/bbl in 2017

Published

on

Petrol - Investors King

The World Bank has projected that crude oil prices would average $52-$53 per barrel (bbl) this year- an increase of 24 per cent over 2016 – owing to the strong demands.

The Bretton Woods institution which gave the forecast in its October 2017 issue of Africa’s Pulse, one of its publications, noted that while the prices of crude oil had been under downward pressure throughout the year, the prices had recovered.

According to the bank, “After dropping to $46 per barrel (bbl) in mid-year amid a rebound in US crude oil production, crude oil prices have recovered. Crude oil prices rose in the third quarter owing to

strong demand and improved compliance by Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC producers with production agreements.

The World Bank explained that for the next year and beyond, the oil price path will reflect the pace of demand, the degree of decline of stocks, and production restraint among OPEC and non-OPEC producers. It, however, indicated that, the global market was unlikely to tighten significantly because of large projected increases in US shale production

The World Bank Africa’s Pulse, which is an analysis of issues shaping Africa’s economic future, recalled that, “After a marked slowdown in 2016, growth in Sub-Saharan Africa strengthened in 2017, as global activity and trade gained momentum, commodity prices recovered, and global financing conditions remained favourable. Growth in the region”, it added, was expected to “pick up from a two-decade low of 1.3 percent in 2016 to 2.4 per cent in 2017, slightly below the April forecast of 2.6 percent. Crude oil prices rebounded toward the end of 2017 on strengthening demand and falling stocks, and are projected to be 24 per cent higher than in 2016.”

The bank alluded to several factors that prevented a stronger recovery in the region in 2017. “Nigeria and South Africa exited recession in the second quarter of 2017 as expected. A recovery in the oil sector, partly due to a decline in militants’ attacks on oil pipelines, helped Nigeria pull out of five consecutive quarters of negative growth but the rebound was softer than expected. Growth in Nigeria in 2017 is now expected to come in at 1.0 per cent, 0.2 percentage point below the forecast in the April 2017 issue of Africa’s Pulse.”

Nevertheless, it said, “The increase in oil production was below projections, due to maintenance work, and growth in the non-oil sector has remained subdued.”

However, Africa’s Pulse, a report from the Office of the Chief Economist for the Africa Region, acknowledged that, “Currencies in the region have stabilised in real effective terms. In oil exporters, pressures on the exchange rate have eased due to higher oil prices, increased oil production, and a weaker dollar.”

However, the spread between the parallel and official rates has persisted in Nigeria and Angola, reflecting continued foreign exchange restrictions, the bank indicated.

While in April 2017, the Central Bank of Nigeria introduced a new investor and exporter window, which has helped improve businesses’ access to foreign exchange, the report also noted that, in Angola, exchange rate controls introduced in the wake of the collapse of oil prices in 2014 had remained in place.

It acknowledged that, “The recent increase in export receipts has helped stabilise the level of reserves in the region, although reserves remain low.

“The median level of reserves in the region is expected to account for 3 months of imports in 2017, the same as in 2016, but below the peak of 4 months of imports in 2014. In several countries, the level of reserves provided less than one month of imports coverage.

“The prospects of stabilising commodity prices, together with financial inflows, should enable commodity exporters to accumulate international reserves, but the low import coverage will weigh on the ability of central banks to continue managing their currencies,” it stated.

Stating that, the slowdown in inflation was more gradual in Nigeria, the World Bank Africa’s Pulse said, “Over the same period, consumer price inflation in Nigeria fell from 18.6 to 16 per cent, remaining unchanged at that level for several months.”

Is the CEO and Founder of Investors King Limited. He is a seasoned foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Business Insider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and other prominent platforms. With over two decades of experience in global financial markets, Olukoya is well-recognized in the industry.

Continue Reading
Comments

Economy

IMF Approves Reforms to Support Low-Income Countries From Shocks

Published

on

IMF global - Investors King

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has approved a set of reforms that will help it support Low-Income Countries (LICs) from shocks over the long term.

The changes to the lender’s concessional lending facilities were contained in a statement by the IMF on Monday.

The US-based lender said these reforms are detailed in the staff paper “2024 Review of the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust (PRGT) Facilities and Financing—Reform Proposals.”

The fund said it significantly scaled up support to its low-income members in response to the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent major shocks.

“The annual lending commitments have risen to an average of SDR 5.5 billion since 2020, compared with about SDR 1.2 billion during the preceding decade,” the statement said.

“Outstanding PRGT credit has tripled since the pandemic’s onset, while funding costs at the SDR interest rate have risen sharply. As a result, the PRGT faces an acute funding shortfall, with its self-sustained lending capacity projected to decline, absent reforms, to about SDR 1 billion a year by 2027, well below expected demand.”

The reforms approved by the IMF’s Executive Board aim at maintaining adequate financial support to low-income countries while restoring the self-sustainability of the PRGT.

“The Executive Board today endorsed a long-term annual lending envelope of SDR 2.7 billion ($3.6 billion) and approved a package of policy reforms and resource mobilization to support that lending capacity.

“The envelope, which is more than twice the pre-pandemic capacity, is calibrated to ensure that the Fund can use its limited concessional resources to continue providing vital balance of payment support to LICs, while supporting strong economic policies and catalyzing fresh financing from other sources.

“The Review includes policy changes that reflect the increasing economic heterogeneity among LICs. A new tiered interest rate mechanism will enhance the targeting of scarce PRGT resources to the poorest LICs, which will continue to benefit from interest-free lending, while better-off LICs will be charged a modest, and still concessional, interest rate,” the statement said.

After a successful bilateral fundraising, and in the context of a robust financial outlook for the Fund, the membership reached consensus on a framework to deploy IMF internal resources to facilitate the generation of PRGT subsidy resources.

Specifically, the fund said SDR 5.9 billion (about $ 8 billion), in 2025 present value terms, is expected to be generated through a framework to distribute GRA net income and/or reserves over the next five years.

This is in addition to bilateral subsidy contributions, the subsidy savings from the new interest rate mechanism, and financing from a proposed further five-year suspension of PRGT administrative expenses reimbursement to the GRA.

Continue Reading

Economy

Vandalism Sparks Blackouts, Traders in Kano and Kaduna Plead for Urgent Power Restoration

Published

on

electricity

Many traders in Kano and Kaduna States have been thrown into worry over blackout.

Those affected, especially small business owners whose means of livelihoods largely depend on the availability of electricity, bemoaned the upsurge in vandalisation of public infrastructure.

This panic is coming as the Transmission Company of Nigeria announced that two towers along its 330kV Shiroro–Kaduna transmission lines 1 and 2 have been vandalised, resulting in damage to parts of both transmission lines.

As a result, some areas of Kano and Kaduna states are experiencing blackouts.

The company received a report of the damage from its Shiroro Regional Office on Friday.

A statement signed by the company’s General Manager of Public Affairs, Ndidi Mbah, indicated that arrangements are underway to deploy the newly acquired “emergency restoration system” to the site, pending the reconstruction of the damaged towers.

Although the company did not explicitly attribute the damage to bandits, it is suspected that they may be involved, particularly in light of the recent killing of 13 farmers in the Shiroro community.

According to TCN, the 330kV transmission line 1 tripped first, followed shortly by the second line while efforts were still ongoing to reclose the first. This prompted the urgent mobilisation of local vigilantes to patrol the lines.

It added that the incident revealed damage to towers T133 and T136, with cables severely damaged at multiple points.

The statement further disclosed that an aerial survey, in collaboration with security operatives, has been conducted, and temporary measures are in place to supply bulk power to the Kaduna and Kano regions via the 330kV Kaduna–Jos transmission line.

Mbah said arrangements are in top gear to deploy the newly procured ’emergency restoration system’ to the site, pending the reconstruction of the damaged towers.

He added that TCN has also conducted an aerial survey in collaboration with security operatives, given the area’s vulnerability to banditry, which poses a significant threat to both TCN installations and personnel.

A trader in Kano who identified himself as Usman, urged TCN to intensify efforts in restoring electricity to the affected areas so that more harm would not be done to businesses.

Continue Reading

Economy

World Bank VP Lauds CBN Governor Cardoso’s Inflation-Fighting Policies

Published

on

world bank - Investors King

The Senior Vice President of the World Bank, Indermit Gill, has praised the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Yemi Cardoso, over his approach to managing inflation in the country.

Gill made this known during his address at the 30th Nigerian Economic Summit organized by the Nigerian Economic Summit Group in Abuja, on Monday.

The World Bank VP decried the high cost of petrol occasioned by the subsidy removal of President Tinubu’s government and the untold hardship it has imposed on Nigerians.

However, he hailed the interest rate increase by the central bank which according to him will boost confidence in the Naira and anchor inflationary expectations.

Gill emphasized that Governor Cardoso through his policies has been steering Nigeria in the right direction.

Meanwhile, Gill noted that Nigeria is just in the beginning stage of reaping the benefits of these policies.

According to him, the country will need to sustain the momentum for a period of ten to seventeen years, before achieving the desired outcome.

He revealed that countries like India, Poland, Korea, and Norway have benefitted from the approach.

He said, “Implementing such a far-reaching reform is impossible without a solid political commitment from the top. The price of PMS has quadrupled since the subsidy cut, imposing terrible hardship across the breadth of Nigeria’s society.  

“The Central Bank has had to hike its policy by a huge 850 basis point, almost 9 percentage points in the last month to boost confidence in the naira and anchor inflationary expectations.  

“The Central Bank financing of fiscal deficit has finally ended, and Governor Cardoso has been putting Nigeria or helping to put Nigeria on the right course.”

“But this is only the beginning, Nigeria will need to stay the course for at least 10 to 17 years to transform its economy. If it does that, it will transform its economy.  

“And it will become an engine of growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. And he will help to transform Sub-Saharan Africa. It’s very difficult to do these things, but the rewards are massive.  

“This is the lesson from the last forty years as well as the experience of countries such as India, Poland, Korea and Norway,” Gill said. 

Investors King reported that on September 24, 2024, the apex bank announced another increase in its Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) to 27.25% from 26.75 percent.

The decision was made during the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting chaired by CBN Governor, Yemi Cardoso.

Continue Reading
Advertisement
Advertisement




Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertisement

Trending