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Crude Oil Prices to Average $53/bbl in 2017

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Petrol - Investors King

The World Bank has projected that crude oil prices would average $52-$53 per barrel (bbl) this year- an increase of 24 per cent over 2016 – owing to the strong demands.

The Bretton Woods institution which gave the forecast in its October 2017 issue of Africa’s Pulse, one of its publications, noted that while the prices of crude oil had been under downward pressure throughout the year, the prices had recovered.

According to the bank, “After dropping to $46 per barrel (bbl) in mid-year amid a rebound in US crude oil production, crude oil prices have recovered. Crude oil prices rose in the third quarter owing to

strong demand and improved compliance by Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC producers with production agreements.

The World Bank explained that for the next year and beyond, the oil price path will reflect the pace of demand, the degree of decline of stocks, and production restraint among OPEC and non-OPEC producers. It, however, indicated that, the global market was unlikely to tighten significantly because of large projected increases in US shale production

The World Bank Africa’s Pulse, which is an analysis of issues shaping Africa’s economic future, recalled that, “After a marked slowdown in 2016, growth in Sub-Saharan Africa strengthened in 2017, as global activity and trade gained momentum, commodity prices recovered, and global financing conditions remained favourable. Growth in the region”, it added, was expected to “pick up from a two-decade low of 1.3 percent in 2016 to 2.4 per cent in 2017, slightly below the April forecast of 2.6 percent. Crude oil prices rebounded toward the end of 2017 on strengthening demand and falling stocks, and are projected to be 24 per cent higher than in 2016.”

The bank alluded to several factors that prevented a stronger recovery in the region in 2017. “Nigeria and South Africa exited recession in the second quarter of 2017 as expected. A recovery in the oil sector, partly due to a decline in militants’ attacks on oil pipelines, helped Nigeria pull out of five consecutive quarters of negative growth but the rebound was softer than expected. Growth in Nigeria in 2017 is now expected to come in at 1.0 per cent, 0.2 percentage point below the forecast in the April 2017 issue of Africa’s Pulse.”

Nevertheless, it said, “The increase in oil production was below projections, due to maintenance work, and growth in the non-oil sector has remained subdued.”

However, Africa’s Pulse, a report from the Office of the Chief Economist for the Africa Region, acknowledged that, “Currencies in the region have stabilised in real effective terms. In oil exporters, pressures on the exchange rate have eased due to higher oil prices, increased oil production, and a weaker dollar.”

However, the spread between the parallel and official rates has persisted in Nigeria and Angola, reflecting continued foreign exchange restrictions, the bank indicated.

While in April 2017, the Central Bank of Nigeria introduced a new investor and exporter window, which has helped improve businesses’ access to foreign exchange, the report also noted that, in Angola, exchange rate controls introduced in the wake of the collapse of oil prices in 2014 had remained in place.

It acknowledged that, “The recent increase in export receipts has helped stabilise the level of reserves in the region, although reserves remain low.

“The median level of reserves in the region is expected to account for 3 months of imports in 2017, the same as in 2016, but below the peak of 4 months of imports in 2014. In several countries, the level of reserves provided less than one month of imports coverage.

“The prospects of stabilising commodity prices, together with financial inflows, should enable commodity exporters to accumulate international reserves, but the low import coverage will weigh on the ability of central banks to continue managing their currencies,” it stated.

Stating that, the slowdown in inflation was more gradual in Nigeria, the World Bank Africa’s Pulse said, “Over the same period, consumer price inflation in Nigeria fell from 18.6 to 16 per cent, remaining unchanged at that level for several months.”

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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