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Treasury Bills Yield Drops to 15-month Low

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  • Treasury Bills Yield Drops to 15-month Low

The Debt Management Office (DMO) lowered the yields it offered at the treasury bill auction to raise N130 billion after investors submitted bids four times in excess of the amount it wanted to sell.

The DMO sold N129.77 billion in 91-day, 182-day and 364-day bills at the auction but received bids totalling N526.36 billion.

The interest rate on 364-day treasury bills may have triggered a conversation on interest rate direction for securities trading and pricing in Nigeria, according to an analyst at Ecobank Nigeria, KunleEzun said.

The interest rate performance on 364-day treasury bills rate was a reflection of recent market development relating to federal government decision to sell dollar-backed treasury bills and a possible US$5.5 billion Eurobond issuance in November 2017.

Owing to this, the 364-day treasury bills rate fell from a year to date high of 18.980 per cent in April to 15.7253 per cent in October 2017, thereby indicating 325 basis points drop over six months period.

The Treasury bills, which are issued more frequently in standard benchmarks: 91-day, 182- day and 364-day for refinancing purpose is about N4.211.85 trillion year-to date in 2017.

In addition, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has issued open market operations (OMO) bills to the tune of N4.722.34 trillion of various maturities at a weighted average rate of 18.32 per cent year to date in 2017.

“Interest rate on 364-day treasury bills is on a downward trend, but how low can it go? The CBN has kept policy interest rate high at 14 per cent to anchor inflation and possibly ensure positive real return on naira denominated government securities in a high inflationary environment.

“Interest rate on 364-day treasury bills will continue to drop, and possibly align with the policy interest rate of 14 per cent in fourth quarter 2017.. However, if the CBN decides to tweak its monetary policy stance to support economic growth, the interest rate might drop further down,” Ezun opined.

At the last auction, investors bid as much as 18 per centfor one-year debt and as low as the 13.25 per cent it paid for the three-month note.

The federal government is considering issuing a $2.5 billion Eurobond before the end of the year, the latest in a series of debt sales as the government seeks to fund a record budget for 2017.

The Director General of the Debt Management Office (DMO), Patience Oniha, disclosed this recently.

The federal government’s N7.44 trillion budget was meant to fuel growth after the economy pulled out of its first downturn in a quarter of a century in the second quarter of 2017. The mid-November issue would complement the $1.5 billion raised in Eurobond sales in February and March. She had said Nigeria needed to build stronger and responsive institutions that could support infrastructure agenda of the government. According to her, the government had proposed to channel new borrowings into capital investments instead of consumption.

Meanwhile, following expectations of improved economic stability in Nigeria, BlackRock Incorporated, an American global investment management corporation based in New York City, plans to take advantage of opportunities in Nigeria’s bond market as part of efforts to raise performance in its bond offerings.

BlackRockfavours Nigeria as well as oil producers such as Russia, Colombia and Kazakhstan, the company’s Sergio Trigo Paz, told Reuters in an interview, highlighting the West African country as one where he is planning to enter local markets.

“We are moving into some countries even deeper because we feel that the macro environment is much more stable than it was and likely to improve going forward,” Trigo Paz said at the New York headquarters of the world’s largest asset manager.

“With regard to sub-asset classes, local markets are still the place to be,” he added, noting that he expects the United States dollar to be less of a driver for local market returns.

Investors have been piling into Nigerian bonds due to high yields and stable currency for investors especially as an improving inflation outlook may mean that yields could start to decline.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Loans

Federal Government Spends $1.12 Billion on Foreign Debt Servicing in Q1 2024

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The Federal Government has disclosed that it pays $1.12 billion to service foreign debts in the first quarter of 2024 alone.

This amount shows the escalating burden of external debt on the nation’s fiscal health.

Data gleaned from the international payment segment of the Central Bank of Nigeria website reveals a steady upward trajectory in debt service payments, both over the past few years and within the first quarter of 2024.

When this is compared to the same period in 2023, debt servicing rose by 39.7 percent in Q1, 2024.

The breakdown of the debt service payments paints a picture of fluctuating yet consistently high expenditure.

January 2024 commenced with an imposing debt servicing obligation of $560.52 million, a stark contrast to the $112.35 million recorded in January 2023.

While February 2024 witnessed a moderation in debt servicing payments to $283.22 million and March 2024 saw a further decrease to $276.17 million.

Alarmingly, approximately 70 percent of Nigeria’s dollar payments were allocated to service external debts during the first quarter of 2024.

Out of the total outflows amounting to $1.61 billion, a substantial $1.12 billion was directed towards debt servicing, significantly surpassing the corresponding figure of 49 percent in Q1 2023.

The depletion of foreign exchange reserves, which experienced a recent one-month dip streak has been attributed primarily to debt repayments and other financial obligations rather than efforts to defend the naira, according to CBN Governor Yemi Cardoso.

The World Bank has expressed profound concern over the escalating debt service burdens facing developing countries globally, emphasizing the urgent need for coordinated action to avert a widespread financial crisis.

With record-level debt and soaring interest rates, many developing nations, including Nigeria, face an increasingly precarious economic path, fraught with challenges regarding resource allocation and financial stability.

The Debt Management Office (DMO) has previously disclosed that Nigeria incurred a debt service of $3.5 billion for its external loans in 2023, marking a 55 percent increase from the previous year.

This worrisome trend underscores the pressing need for robust fiscal management and prudent debt repayment strategies to safeguard Nigeria’s financial stability and foster sustainable economic growth.

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Emefiele Trial: Witness Details Alleged Extortion by CBN Director Over $400,000

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In the ongoing trial of Godwin Emefiele, former governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), a significant revelation emerged as Victor Onyejiuwa, managing director of The Source Computers Limited, took the stand as the fourth witness.

His testimony shed light on alleged extortion involving a substantial sum of $400,000.

Onyejiuwa recounted his company’s involvement with the CBN from 2014 to 2019, providing technology support and securing multiple contracts, including one for enterprise storage and servers in 2017.

However, post-execution of the contract, he faced pressure from John Ikechukwu Ayoh, a former CBN director, regarding the release of funds.

According to Onyejiuwa’s testimony, Ayoh approached him, indicating that CBN management required a portion of the contract’s funds.

He alleged that Ayoh threatened to withhold payment approval if his demands were not met. Feeling coerced, Onyejiuwa acceded to Ayoh’s request after several discussions.

To ensure the contract’s payment, Onyejiuwa revealed that he organized the sum of $400,000 along with an additional $200,000, yielding a total of $600,000.

This payment, made within two to three weeks, facilitated the release of funds for the contract.

During his testimony, Onyejiuwa disclosed contract amounts, including a significant $1.2 billion contract, along with others valued at $2.1 million, N340,000, and N17 million.

These revelations provide insight into the alleged irregularities surrounding contract payments at the CBN.

Following Onyejiuwa’s testimony, Emefiele’s legal counsel requested an adjournment for cross-examination at the next hearing, which was granted by Justice Rahman Oshodi. The trial is set to resume on May 17.

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IMF Gives Nod as Congo Inches Closer to Historic Loan Program Completion

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The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) received a positive review from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Wednesday in a crucial step toward completing its first-ever IMF loan program.

Following the completion of the sixth and final review in the Congolese capital, Kinshasa, IMF staff are set to recommend to the executive board the approval of the last disbursement of Congo’s three-year $1.5 billion extended credit facility.

This development positions Congo on the brink of achieving a milestone in its financial history.

Despite facing fiscal pressures exacerbated by ongoing conflict in the eastern regions and the recent elections in December 2023, the IMF lauded Congo’s overall performance as “generally positive”.

The country’s economy heavily relies on mineral exports, particularly copper and cobalt, essential components in electric vehicle batteries.

According to the IMF, Congo’s economy exhibited robust growth, expanding by 8.3% last year, fueled largely by its ascent to become the world’s second-largest copper producer.

However, persistent insecurity in eastern Congo, attributed to the activities of over 100 armed groups vying for control over resources and political representation, has hindered the nation’s economic progress.

The positive assessment by the IMF underscores Congo’s achievements in enhancing its economic fundamentals, including an increase in reserves, which reached $5.5 billion by the end of 2023, equivalent to approximately two months of imports.

Despite these gains, challenges remain, with high inflation rates hovering around 24% at the close of last year.

The IMF emphasized the necessity of enacting a new budget law following the renegotiation of a minerals-for-infrastructure contract with China. Under the revised terms, Congo is slated to receive $324 million annually in development financing backed by revenue from a copper and cobalt joint venture.

Looking ahead, the IMF’s executive board is anticipated to deliberate on the staff recommendation in July. If approved, the disbursement of approximately $200 million will fortify Congo’s international reserves, providing a crucial buffer against economic volatility.

Also, Congo’s government intends to seek a new Extended Credit Facility (ECF) from the IMF, signaling its commitment to ongoing economic reforms and sustainable growth.

The IMF’s endorsement represents a significant validation of Congo’s economic trajectory and underscores the nation’s efforts to navigate complex challenges while advancing towards financial stability and prosperity.

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