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Power Firms, Gas Producers Disagree on Dollar-denominated Pricing

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  • Power Firms, Gas Producers Disagree on Dollar-denominated Pricing

The denomination of the price of gas sold to electricity generation companies in the United States dollars is sending ripples across the entire value chain of the Nigerian electricity supply industry.

The Gencos have raised concern about the issue, with the distribution companies also worried that it has contributed to a major mismatch between the invoices they receive and the revenue they collect from consumers.

But gas producers said their contracts should be denominated in dollars because their plants were executed in the same currency.

They also said being paid in naira, using the prevailing official exchange rate, had exposed them to significant foreign exchange risk, which was threatening the continuity of their businesses.

About 80 per cent of the electricity generated in the country is from gas-fired power plants, with hydro plants contributing the rest.

The President, Nigerian Gas Association, Mr. Dada Thomas, said the nation could be plunged into darkness if the forex risk remained unresolved amid a debt of over $500m owed gas producers by the power sector.

He stated, “The gas contracts are denominated in US dollars but are paid in naira at the CBN rate. What it means is that gas suppliers are being made to bear the foreign exchange exposure for the entire power sector.

“We are the ones being punished by the entire electricity value chain for taking a risk in putting down gas plants to feed the Gencos.”

Thomas, who is the Chief Executive Officer of Frontier Oil Limited, described the situation as unfair, saying gas producers should be paid in dollars, because “we spend dollars to generate the product.”

“My preference is that we get paid in dollars. But if that is not doable, let the central bank provide a platform for gas producers to be able to source dollars at the same rate at which we are paid our gas invoices so that we don’t lose any money,” he added.

According to him, gas producers are being paid at N305/dollar and then they have to go and look for dollar at N365.

The NGA president said, “We lose N60 for every dollar sale we made. That means the business will go bankrupt; it is just a matter of time. We are drowning.

“If that happens, Nigeria will be plunged into darkness because we will all stop supplying gas. It means that no new gas project can be undertaken because the investors know that they cannot get their dollars back.”

The Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission in 2014 approved a new gas-to-power pricing benchmark of $2.50 per thousand cubic feet from $1.5 per mcf, and $0.80/mcf as transportation costs for new capacity.

The Executive Secretary, Association of Power Generation Companies, Dr. Joy Ogaji, said the Gencos would like the price of gas being sold to them to be denominated in naira.

She said, “Why should we pay for gas in dollars? Don’t you see the challenges of foreign exchange? You have to go to the black market to be able to change naira to dollars before you can buy gas.

“We pay the naira equivalent and some of the companies expect that we pay in dollars.”

The government-owned Nigerian Bulk Electricity Trading Plc buys electricity in bulk from the generating companies and sell to the Discos, which then supply it to the consumers.

“Clearly, it (dollar-denominated gas pricing) has an impact on the retail end of the value chain,” the Chief Executive Officer, Association of Nigerian Electricity Distributors, an umbrella body for the Discos, Mr. Azu Obiaya, said.

According to him, under the minor review of electricity tariff, there is a requirement that gas prices flow through to consumers and the tariff be adjusted for any forex impact.

“So, if the tariff is not adjusted under the minor review, it means that the NBET will continue to bill the Discos for energy that has increased by the cost of that forex impact; but the Discos cannot recover it from their customers,” Obiaya said.

He stressed the need for an adjustment that would put everything in realignment.

The Multi-Year Tariff Order for 2015 to 2018 authorised NERC to provide for minor reviews of the tariff to be conducted bi-annually to update the total cost of electricity.

The variables that are to be considered during the review are the cost of fuel (gas price), foreign exchange rates, inflation rate, and actual available generation capacity.

Obiaya stated, “You have gas prices in dollars but you have your electricity tariff in naira, which is not reflecting the devaluation of the naira. There is a major mismatch, which is contributing significantly to the inflated invoices that the Discos are receiving.

“We have always agreed with the Gencos’ position that the government needs to give consideration to pricing gas in naira, because it will do two fundamental things.”

According to the ANED CEO, it will make the market more aligned and minimise the impact of price increase on the consumers at the retail end.

The regulator, NERC, said in February this year that it had proposed to the government the option of pricing gas in the local currency in order to mitigate the foreign exchange risk, which it described as the major cause for the gap in tariff.

“But we haven’t heard anything specifically in terms of government’s position on this proposal,” Obiaya said.

The spokesperson for NERC, Mr. Usman Arabi, did not immediately respond to an emailed message sent to him on Friday seeking comment on the outcome of the proposal.

The Chief Executive Officer, Eko Electricity Distribution Company, Mr. Oladele Amoda, told our correspondent that there had been several tariff reviews, which were not implemented.

Amoda explained, “We still charge the customers on N197 to a dollar; they (Gencos) charge us on N305/dollar every month. If it goes up, they use the prevailing exchange rate. That is why we are saying let us have a tariff review to reflect this.

“Then, we are also saying that the government should see to it that dollar-denominated invoices should be converted to naira. They are looking at finding a lasting solution.”

The NGA president said the association met with the CBN governor in March; had made representations to the Federal Ministry of Investment, Trade and Industry; and presented many papers to the Minister of Power, Works and Housing, Mr. Babatunde Fashola, that it was not right for the gas supplier to bear the forex risk.

“They have not yet come up with a solution,” he said.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

President Tinubu Defends Tough Economic Decisions at World Economic Forum

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Bola Tinubu

President Bola Tinubu stood firm in defense of Nigeria’s recent tough economic decisions during his address at the World Economic Forum in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

Speaking to a gathering of global business leaders, Tinubu justified the removal of fuel subsidies and the management of Nigeria’s foreign exchange market as necessary measures to prevent the country from bankruptcy and reset its economy towards growth.

In his speech, Tinubu acknowledged the challenges and drawbacks associated with these decisions but emphasized that they were in the best interest of Nigeria.

He described the removal of fuel subsidies as a difficult yet essential action to avert bankruptcy and ensure the country’s economic stability.

Despite the expected difficulties, Tinubu highlighted the government’s efforts to implement parallel arrangements to cushion the impact on vulnerable populations, demonstrating a commitment to inclusive governance.

Regarding the management of the foreign exchange market, Tinubu emphasized the need to remove artificial value elements in Nigeria’s currency to foster competitiveness and transparency.

While acknowledging the turbulence associated with such decisions, he underscored the government’s preparedness to manage the challenges through inclusive governance and effective communication with the public.

Moreover, Tinubu used the platform to call on the global community to pay attention to the root causes of poverty and instability in Africa’s Sahel region.

He emphasized the importance of economic collaborations and inclusiveness in achieving stability and growth, urging bigger economies to actively participate in promoting prosperity in the region.

Tinubu’s defense of Nigeria’s economic policies reflects the government’s commitment to making tough but necessary decisions to steer the country towards sustainable growth and development.

As the world grapples with geopolitical tensions, inflation, and supply chain disruptions, Tinubu’s message at the World Economic Forum underscores the importance of collaborative action and inclusive governance in addressing critical global challenges.

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Economy

IMF: Nigeria’s 2024 Growth Outlook Revised Upward – Coronation Economic Note

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IMF - Investors King

In its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO), the IMF revised its global growth forecast for 2024 upward to 3.2% y/y from 3.1% y/y projected in its January ’24 WEO.

Meanwhile, the growth outlook for 2025 was unchanged at 3.2% y/y. It is worth highlighting that global growth projections for 2024 and 2025 remain below the historical (2000-2019) average of 3.8%.

Persistence inflationary pressure, turbulence in China’s property sector, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and financial stress continue to pose downside risk to global growth projection.

There was an upward growth revision for United States to 2.7% y/y from 2.1% y/y. The upward revision can be partly attributed to a stronger than expected growth in the US economy in Q4 ‘23 bolstered by healthier consumption patterns; stronger momentum is expected in 2024.

Growth in China remains steady at 4.6% y/y. This is consistent with the projection recorded in its January ’24 WEO, as post pandemic boost to consumption and fiscal stimulus eases off amid headwinds in the property sector. We expect a loosening or a hold stance in the near-term as China continues to seek ways to bolster its economy.

On the flip side, GDP growth was revised downward (marginally) for the Eurozone to 0.8% y/y from 0.9% y/y (in its January ’23 WEO) for 2024. The growth projection for the United Kingdom was also revised downwards to 0.5% y/y from 0.6% y/y.

Russia’s growth forecast was revised upward to 3.2% y/y from 2.6% y/y (in its January ’24 WEO) for 2024. This revision was largely due to high investment and robust private consumption supported by wage growth.

The projection for average global inflation was revised upward to 5.9% y/y for 2024 from 5.8% y/y (in its January ’24 WEO), with an expectation of a decline to 4.5% y/y in 2025.

This is reflective of the cooling effects of monetary policy tightening across advanced and emerging economies.

Based on IMF projections, we anticipate a swifter decline in headline inflation rates averaging near 2% in 2025 among advanced economies before the avg. inflation figure for developing economies returns to pre-pandemic rate of c.5%.

This is driven by tight monetary policies, softening labor markets, and the fading passthrough effects from earlier declines in relative prices, notably energy prices.

We understand that moderations in headline inflation have prompted central banks of select economies to slow down on further policy rate hikes.

For instance, the US Federal Reserve may consider rate cuts three times this year if macro-indicators align with expectations. Also, the UK and ECB are likely to reduce their level of policy restriction if they become more confident that inflation is moving towards the 2% target.

The growth forecast for sub-Saharan Africa remains steady at 3.8% y/y for 2024. The unchanged projection can be partly attributed to expectations around growth dynamics in Angola, notably contraction in its oil sector, which was offset by an upward revision for Nigeria’s GDP growth estimate.

For Nigeria, IMF revised its 2024 growth forecast upward to 3.3% y/y from 3.0% y/y (in its January ’24 WEO). This revision partly reflects the elevated oil price environment. Bonny Light has increased by 14.6% from the start of the year to USD89.3/b (as at April 2024).

Other upside risks include relatively stable growth in select sectors, improved fx market dynamics as well as ongoing restrictive monetary stance by the CBN.

Nigeria’s headline inflation has steadily recorded upticks (currently at 33.2% y/y as of March ‘24). Our end-year inflation forecast (base-case scenario) is 35.8% y/y. The ongoing geopolitical tension could exacerbate supply chain disruptions, driving commodity prices, and exerting pressure on purchasing
power.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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