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GDP Growth Weak, Dependent on Oil Sector – Economists

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  • GDP Growth Weak, Dependent on Oil Sector – Economists

Economic experts and analysts on Tuesday welcomed the 0.55 per cent Gross Domestic Product growth rate recorded by the Nigerian economy in the second quarter of this year, which meant that the country had exited recession.

They, however, expressed concern that the economic growth rate was weak and largely dependent on improvement in oil prices and output, and as such, might not be sustainable in the event of a shock in the local or global oil market.

The experts said policymakers still had a lot to do to keep the economy out of recession and experience higher economic growth rate that could guarantee better living conditions and standards.

The economists, who spoke in separate interviews with our correspondent, advised policymakers to take steps that would make the country’s economic growth and recovery to be based on factors that were not dependent on the oil sector.

The Managing Director of Economic Associates, Dr. Ayo Teriba, said, ‘’Even the government has expressed cautious optimism over this recovery. They said that it was the decline in price and output of oil that led into the recession. It is the recovery of oil (price and output) that has taken us out of recession.

“We, therefore, need to create a cushion for the economy such that even if the oil price drops, there will be no recession. We need to look at the example of Saudi Arabia that raised $200bn from privatising 16 sectors. Nigeria should follow suit. We cannot be living in the fear of the drop in oil price. We should open up to investors. Nigeria can attract better investments than Saudi Arabia.”

The Chief Executive Officer, Financial Derivatives Company Limited, Bismarck Rewane, said the GDP growth rate might be sustainable if the country worked harder.

Rewane said, “The growth rate is way below optimal and insufficient to create more work for the 14.2 per cent of Nigerians who want to work but can’t find jobs.

“It is sustainable, but it means that a lot more work needs to be done and it’s too early to start celebrating.”

The Head of Macroeconomic Research at Standard Chartered Bank, Razia Khan, in an emailed comment, said, “While many will focus on the headline move back into positive territory, some of that optimism must necessarily be tempered.

“This is not at all a robust GDP print. It still falls far short of the growth rates the Nigerian economy should be achieving”

The Managing Director, Cowry Assets Management Limited, Mr. Johnson Chukwu, while giving an analysis of the GDP figures, said the economy was still largely dependent on the oil sector.

For the country to experience economic stability, he stated that there was a need to adjust the structure of the economy, adding that the government must make efforts to stimulate growth in key non-oil sectors.

According to him, the government can do this by reviewing the manner it is funding infrastructure growth such that the private sector is not crowded out of the debt market.

He emphasised the need for the government to reduce its borrowing through short-term instruments such as Treasury Bills.

Chukwu said, “The government must improve on the cost and availability of funds for the private sector, especially sectors like the manufacturing. The government must strengthen the financial services sector by incentivising banks to lend to the private sector.

“There is also a need to ensure stability in the Niger Delta so that oil production will not be affected since the economy is still largely dependent on oil. The policymakers need to continue to improve the policy environment by ensuring that initiatives like that of the Investors and Exporters’ FX windows are launched.”

The Managing Director, Afrinvest Securities, Mr. Ayodeji Ebo, said to sustain the recovery, the government must enhance the implementation of the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan, and the 2017 budget.

He also emphasised the need to converge the foreign exchange rates at the Nigeria Interbank Foreign Exchange Market and the National Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market, adding that this would attract more investors into the country.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Nigeria’s N3.3tn Power Sector Rescue Package Unveiled

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President Bola Tinubu has given the green light for a comprehensive N3.3 trillion rescue package.

This ambitious initiative seeks to tackle the country’s mounting power sector debts, which have long hindered the efficiency and reliability of electricity supply across the nation.

The unveiling of this rescue package represents a pivotal moment in Nigeria’s quest for a sustainable energy future. With power outages being a recurring nightmare for both businesses and households, the need for decisive action has never been more urgent.

At the heart of the rescue package are measures aimed at settling the staggering debts accumulated within the power sector. President Tinubu has approved a phased approach to debt repayment, encompassing cash injections and promissory notes.

This strategic allocation of funds aims to provide immediate relief to power-generating companies (Gencos) and gas suppliers, while also ensuring long-term financial stability within the sector.

Chief Adebayo Adelabu, the Minister of Power, revealed details of the rescue package at the 8th Africa Energy Marketplace held in Abuja.

Speaking at the event themed, “Towards Nigeria’s Sustainable Energy Future,” Adelabu emphasized the government’s commitment to eliminating bottlenecks and fostering policy coherence within the power sector.

One of the key highlights of the rescue package is the allocation of funds from the Gas Stabilisation Fund to settle outstanding debts owed to gas suppliers.

This critical step not only addresses the immediate liquidity concerns of gas companies but also paves the way for enhanced cooperation between gas suppliers and power generators.

Furthermore, the rescue package includes provisions for addressing the legacy debts owed to power-generating companies.

By utilizing future royalties and income streams from the gas sub-sector, the government aims to provide a sustainable solution that incentivizes investment in power generation capacity.

The announcement of the N3.3 trillion rescue package comes amidst ongoing efforts to revitalize Nigeria’s power sector.

Recent initiatives, including tariff adjustments and regulatory reforms, underscore the government’s determination to overcome longstanding challenges and enhance the sector’s effectiveness.

However, challenges persist, as highlighted by Barth Nnaji, a former Minister of Power, who emphasized the need for a robust transmission network to support increased power generation.

Nnaji’s advocacy for a super grid underscores the importance of infrastructure development in ensuring the reliability and stability of Nigeria’s power supply.

In light of these developments, stakeholders have welcomed the unveiling of the N3.3 trillion rescue package as a decisive step towards transforming Nigeria’s power sector.

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Nigeria’s Inflation Climbs to 28-Year High at 33.69% in April

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Nigeria's Inflation Rate - Investors King

Nigeria is grappling with soaring inflation as data from the statistics agency revealed that the country’s headline inflation surged to a new 28-year high in April.

The consumer price index, which measures the inflation rate, rose to 33.69% year-on-year, up from 33.20% in March.

This surge in inflation comes amid a series of economic challenges, including subsidy cuts on petrol and electricity and twice devaluing the local naira currency by the administration of President Bola Tinubu.

The sharp rise in inflation has been a pressing concern for policymakers, leading the central bank to take measures to address the growing price pressures.

The central bank has raised interest rates twice this year, including its largest hike in around 17 years, in an attempt to contain inflationary pressures.

Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria has indicated that interest rates will remain high for as long as necessary to bring down inflation.

The bank is set to hold another rate-setting meeting next week to review its policy stance.

A report by the National Bureau of Statistics highlighted that the food and non-alcoholic beverages category continued to be the biggest contributor to inflation in April.

Food inflation, which accounts for the bulk of the inflation basket, rose to 40.53% in annual terms, up from 40.01% in March.

In response to the economic challenges posed by soaring inflation, President Tinubu’s administration has announced a salary hike of up to 35% for civil servants to ease the pressure on government workers.

Also, to support vulnerable households, the government has restarted a direct cash transfer program and distributed at least 42,000 tons of grains such as corn and millet.

The rising inflation rate presents significant challenges for Nigeria’s economy, impacting the purchasing power of consumers and adding strains to household budgets.

As the government continues to grapple with inflationary pressures, policymakers are faced with the task of implementing measures to stabilize prices and mitigate the adverse effects on the economy and livelihoods of citizens.

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FG Acknowledges Labour’s Protest, Assures Continued Dialogue

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Power - Investors King

The Federal Government through the Ministry of Power has acknowledged the organised Labour request for a reduction in electric tariff.

The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) and Trade Union Congress (TUC) had picketed offices of the National Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) and Distribution Companies nationwide over the hike in electricity tariff.

The unions had described the upward review, demanding outright cancellation.

Addressing State House correspondents after the Federal Executive Council (FEC) meeting on Tuesday, Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, said labour had the right to protest.

“We cannot stop them from organizing peaceful protest or laying down their demands. Let me make that clear. President Bola Tinubu’s administration is also a listening government.”

“We have heard their demands, we’re going to look at it, we’ll make further engagements and I believe we’re going to reach a peaceful resolution with the labor because no government can succeed without the cooperation, collaboration and partnership with the Labour unions. So we welcome the peaceful protest and I’m happy that it was not a violent protest. They’ve made their positions known and government has taken in their demands and we’re looking at it.

“But one thing that I want to state here is from the statistics of those affected by the hike in tariff, the people on the road yesterday, who embarked on the peaceful protests, more than 95% of them are not affected by the increase in the tariff of electricity. They still enjoy almost 70% government subsidy in the tariff they pay because the average costs of generating, transmitting and distributing electricity is not less than N180 today.

“A lot of them are paying below N60 so they still enjoy government’s subsidy. So when they say we should reverse the recently increased tariff, sincerely it’s not affecting them. That’s one position.

“My appeal again is that they should please not derail or distract our transformation plan for the industry. We have a clearly documented reform roadmap to take us to our desired destination, where we’re going to have reliable, functional, cost-effective and affordable electricity in Nigeria. It cannot be achieved overnight because this is a decay of almost 60 years, which we are trying to correct.”

He said there was the need for sacrifice from everybody, “from the government’s side, from the people’s side, from the private sector side. So we must bear this sacrifice for us to have a permanent gain”.

“I don’t want us to go back to the situation we were in February and March, where we had very low generation. We all felt the impact of this whereby electricity supply was very low and every household, every company, every institution, felt it. From the little reform that we’ve embarked upon since the beginning of April, we have seen the impact that electricity has improved and it can only get better.”

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