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GDP Growth Weak, Dependent on Oil Sector – Economists

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  • GDP Growth Weak, Dependent on Oil Sector – Economists

Economic experts and analysts on Tuesday welcomed the 0.55 per cent Gross Domestic Product growth rate recorded by the Nigerian economy in the second quarter of this year, which meant that the country had exited recession.

They, however, expressed concern that the economic growth rate was weak and largely dependent on improvement in oil prices and output, and as such, might not be sustainable in the event of a shock in the local or global oil market.

The experts said policymakers still had a lot to do to keep the economy out of recession and experience higher economic growth rate that could guarantee better living conditions and standards.

The economists, who spoke in separate interviews with our correspondent, advised policymakers to take steps that would make the country’s economic growth and recovery to be based on factors that were not dependent on the oil sector.

The Managing Director of Economic Associates, Dr. Ayo Teriba, said, ‘’Even the government has expressed cautious optimism over this recovery. They said that it was the decline in price and output of oil that led into the recession. It is the recovery of oil (price and output) that has taken us out of recession.

“We, therefore, need to create a cushion for the economy such that even if the oil price drops, there will be no recession. We need to look at the example of Saudi Arabia that raised $200bn from privatising 16 sectors. Nigeria should follow suit. We cannot be living in the fear of the drop in oil price. We should open up to investors. Nigeria can attract better investments than Saudi Arabia.”

The Chief Executive Officer, Financial Derivatives Company Limited, Bismarck Rewane, said the GDP growth rate might be sustainable if the country worked harder.

Rewane said, “The growth rate is way below optimal and insufficient to create more work for the 14.2 per cent of Nigerians who want to work but can’t find jobs.

“It is sustainable, but it means that a lot more work needs to be done and it’s too early to start celebrating.”

The Head of Macroeconomic Research at Standard Chartered Bank, Razia Khan, in an emailed comment, said, “While many will focus on the headline move back into positive territory, some of that optimism must necessarily be tempered.

“This is not at all a robust GDP print. It still falls far short of the growth rates the Nigerian economy should be achieving”

The Managing Director, Cowry Assets Management Limited, Mr. Johnson Chukwu, while giving an analysis of the GDP figures, said the economy was still largely dependent on the oil sector.

For the country to experience economic stability, he stated that there was a need to adjust the structure of the economy, adding that the government must make efforts to stimulate growth in key non-oil sectors.

According to him, the government can do this by reviewing the manner it is funding infrastructure growth such that the private sector is not crowded out of the debt market.

He emphasised the need for the government to reduce its borrowing through short-term instruments such as Treasury Bills.

Chukwu said, “The government must improve on the cost and availability of funds for the private sector, especially sectors like the manufacturing. The government must strengthen the financial services sector by incentivising banks to lend to the private sector.

“There is also a need to ensure stability in the Niger Delta so that oil production will not be affected since the economy is still largely dependent on oil. The policymakers need to continue to improve the policy environment by ensuring that initiatives like that of the Investors and Exporters’ FX windows are launched.”

The Managing Director, Afrinvest Securities, Mr. Ayodeji Ebo, said to sustain the recovery, the government must enhance the implementation of the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan, and the 2017 budget.

He also emphasised the need to converge the foreign exchange rates at the Nigeria Interbank Foreign Exchange Market and the National Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market, adding that this would attract more investors into the country.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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