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Inflation Predicted to Rise in July to 16.26%

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  • Inflation Predicted to Rise Marginally in July to 16.26%

The Financial Derivatives Company has predicted that year-on-year headline inflation will increase by 0.16 per cent, from the 16.10 per cent it was in June, to 16.26 per cent in July, leading to a reversal of a positive trend of the last five months.

According to the Lagos-based research and financial advisory firm, the influence of base year effects on headline inflation has weakened immensely.

“In our estimates, month-on-month inflation is expected to taper significantly to 1.37 per cent (17.74% annualised) from 1.6 per cent (20.98% annualized) in June. This reduction in the monthly inflation is a manifestation of further exchange rate appreciation as the naira has been relatively stable in the forex market.

“The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), a proxy for manufacturing activity, improved further to 54.1 in July, signaling an expansion in manufacturing activities though supply-side constraints persist. Manufacturers are building up inventory levels on the perceived idea that the economy is improving. Unfortunately this is occurring in an environment with naira illiquidity, large carrying costs and dwindling disposable income. The rains and flood in July disrupted movement and reduced traffic to supermarkets. Power supply dropped below 3000mW/hr in July,” FDC stated.

They noted the general moderation in food prices even though there were a few outliers such as beans and rice. Furthermore, they opined that the decline in power supply from the grid during the period resulted in higher electricity costs, while the price of diesel, which is generally used to power generators and trucks increased by 6.25 per cent to N170 per litre.

“Consumer prices are to be directly affected by the beginning of the harvest season. Competitive pressures amongst manufacturers and retailers have intensified and are anticipated to fuel further price decline of some manufactured goods.

“There are some other factors that have an impact on prices, which include the trend of increased capital importation by foreign investors. These investors are buying naira denominated assets and their foreign exchange is helping further injections by the CBN. However, the country is prone to a stock market and forexmarket shock as many analysts believe that gains in both markets are bubbles.

“In the event that these two outcomes materialise, the economy might stumble and consumer prices are likely to shoot up on output constraints. If the inflation numbers change direction as anticipated, the hawks at the Monetary Policy Committee will again be emboldened to maintain the current stance. We are thus likely to see the status quo maintained,” the FDC added.

Is the CEO and Founder of Investors King Limited. He is a seasoned foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Business Insider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and other prominent platforms. With over two decades of experience in global financial markets, Olukoya is well-recognized in the industry.

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Economy

IMF Approves Reforms to Support Low-Income Countries From Shocks

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has approved a set of reforms that will help it support Low-Income Countries (LICs) from shocks over the long term.

The changes to the lender’s concessional lending facilities were contained in a statement by the IMF on Monday.

The US-based lender said these reforms are detailed in the staff paper “2024 Review of the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust (PRGT) Facilities and Financing—Reform Proposals.”

The fund said it significantly scaled up support to its low-income members in response to the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent major shocks.

“The annual lending commitments have risen to an average of SDR 5.5 billion since 2020, compared with about SDR 1.2 billion during the preceding decade,” the statement said.

“Outstanding PRGT credit has tripled since the pandemic’s onset, while funding costs at the SDR interest rate have risen sharply. As a result, the PRGT faces an acute funding shortfall, with its self-sustained lending capacity projected to decline, absent reforms, to about SDR 1 billion a year by 2027, well below expected demand.”

The reforms approved by the IMF’s Executive Board aim at maintaining adequate financial support to low-income countries while restoring the self-sustainability of the PRGT.

“The Executive Board today endorsed a long-term annual lending envelope of SDR 2.7 billion ($3.6 billion) and approved a package of policy reforms and resource mobilization to support that lending capacity.

“The envelope, which is more than twice the pre-pandemic capacity, is calibrated to ensure that the Fund can use its limited concessional resources to continue providing vital balance of payment support to LICs, while supporting strong economic policies and catalyzing fresh financing from other sources.

“The Review includes policy changes that reflect the increasing economic heterogeneity among LICs. A new tiered interest rate mechanism will enhance the targeting of scarce PRGT resources to the poorest LICs, which will continue to benefit from interest-free lending, while better-off LICs will be charged a modest, and still concessional, interest rate,” the statement said.

After a successful bilateral fundraising, and in the context of a robust financial outlook for the Fund, the membership reached consensus on a framework to deploy IMF internal resources to facilitate the generation of PRGT subsidy resources.

Specifically, the fund said SDR 5.9 billion (about $ 8 billion), in 2025 present value terms, is expected to be generated through a framework to distribute GRA net income and/or reserves over the next five years.

This is in addition to bilateral subsidy contributions, the subsidy savings from the new interest rate mechanism, and financing from a proposed further five-year suspension of PRGT administrative expenses reimbursement to the GRA.

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Economy

Vandalism Sparks Blackouts, Traders in Kano and Kaduna Plead for Urgent Power Restoration

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Many traders in Kano and Kaduna States have been thrown into worry over blackout.

Those affected, especially small business owners whose means of livelihoods largely depend on the availability of electricity, bemoaned the upsurge in vandalisation of public infrastructure.

This panic is coming as the Transmission Company of Nigeria announced that two towers along its 330kV Shiroro–Kaduna transmission lines 1 and 2 have been vandalised, resulting in damage to parts of both transmission lines.

As a result, some areas of Kano and Kaduna states are experiencing blackouts.

The company received a report of the damage from its Shiroro Regional Office on Friday.

A statement signed by the company’s General Manager of Public Affairs, Ndidi Mbah, indicated that arrangements are underway to deploy the newly acquired “emergency restoration system” to the site, pending the reconstruction of the damaged towers.

Although the company did not explicitly attribute the damage to bandits, it is suspected that they may be involved, particularly in light of the recent killing of 13 farmers in the Shiroro community.

According to TCN, the 330kV transmission line 1 tripped first, followed shortly by the second line while efforts were still ongoing to reclose the first. This prompted the urgent mobilisation of local vigilantes to patrol the lines.

It added that the incident revealed damage to towers T133 and T136, with cables severely damaged at multiple points.

The statement further disclosed that an aerial survey, in collaboration with security operatives, has been conducted, and temporary measures are in place to supply bulk power to the Kaduna and Kano regions via the 330kV Kaduna–Jos transmission line.

Mbah said arrangements are in top gear to deploy the newly procured ’emergency restoration system’ to the site, pending the reconstruction of the damaged towers.

He added that TCN has also conducted an aerial survey in collaboration with security operatives, given the area’s vulnerability to banditry, which poses a significant threat to both TCN installations and personnel.

A trader in Kano who identified himself as Usman, urged TCN to intensify efforts in restoring electricity to the affected areas so that more harm would not be done to businesses.

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Economy

World Bank VP Lauds CBN Governor Cardoso’s Inflation-Fighting Policies

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The Senior Vice President of the World Bank, Indermit Gill, has praised the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Yemi Cardoso, over his approach to managing inflation in the country.

Gill made this known during his address at the 30th Nigerian Economic Summit organized by the Nigerian Economic Summit Group in Abuja, on Monday.

The World Bank VP decried the high cost of petrol occasioned by the subsidy removal of President Tinubu’s government and the untold hardship it has imposed on Nigerians.

However, he hailed the interest rate increase by the central bank which according to him will boost confidence in the Naira and anchor inflationary expectations.

Gill emphasized that Governor Cardoso through his policies has been steering Nigeria in the right direction.

Meanwhile, Gill noted that Nigeria is just in the beginning stage of reaping the benefits of these policies.

According to him, the country will need to sustain the momentum for a period of ten to seventeen years, before achieving the desired outcome.

He revealed that countries like India, Poland, Korea, and Norway have benefitted from the approach.

He said, “Implementing such a far-reaching reform is impossible without a solid political commitment from the top. The price of PMS has quadrupled since the subsidy cut, imposing terrible hardship across the breadth of Nigeria’s society.  

“The Central Bank has had to hike its policy by a huge 850 basis point, almost 9 percentage points in the last month to boost confidence in the naira and anchor inflationary expectations.  

“The Central Bank financing of fiscal deficit has finally ended, and Governor Cardoso has been putting Nigeria or helping to put Nigeria on the right course.”

“But this is only the beginning, Nigeria will need to stay the course for at least 10 to 17 years to transform its economy. If it does that, it will transform its economy.  

“And it will become an engine of growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. And he will help to transform Sub-Saharan Africa. It’s very difficult to do these things, but the rewards are massive.  

“This is the lesson from the last forty years as well as the experience of countries such as India, Poland, Korea and Norway,” Gill said. 

Investors King reported that on September 24, 2024, the apex bank announced another increase in its Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) to 27.25% from 26.75 percent.

The decision was made during the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting chaired by CBN Governor, Yemi Cardoso.

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