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After 39.6% Growth, Analyst Still Bullish on Nigerian Equities Market

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Stock - Investors King
  • After 39.6% Growth, Analyst Still Bullish on Nigerian Equities Market

Analysts at Cordros Capital Limited, an investment banking firm, have said the equities market will remain bullish for most part of the second half (H2) of 2017.

The market recorded an outperformance in the first half (H1) of 2017 with the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) All-Share Index rising by 23.2 per cent. Although there have been occasional profit taking since the H2 began, the market has appreciated by 13.3 per cent as at Monday, bringing the year-to-date growth to 39.6 per cent.

However, in a special report obtained, Cordros Capital said following the outperformance in H1, they look forward to a sustained uptrend in domestic equities over the remaining part of the year.

“The gains will be supported by consistency and sustainability of policies that speak to near term macroeconomic recovery, in addition to better-than-2016 corporate earnings,” they said.

According to them, they acknowledge downside risks from around the globe, notably rising geopolitical tensions, higher interest rates in the United States, and most profoundly, hazy outlook for oil prices –which could particularly threaten forex stability and consequently spark capital flow reversal.

Cordros Capital, however, stated that developments in the domestic economy signal recovery in the near term which will further strengthen investor appetite. “We look for the economy exiting recession in Q2-2017 (we project output to expand by 1.80 per cent during the quarter and 0.97 per cent for the full year). As a leading indication, manufacturing and non-manufacturing activities expanded in the second quarter of the year, as revealed by the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) which averaged 52.2 and 52.1 points respectively during the three months period. We expect that to be consolidated by fiscal spending related gains from the record 2017 budget,” they added.

The analysts noted that further supporting the argument for a bullish run on the domestic bourse, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)’s Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Rate Fixing (NAFEX) window has the potential to further buoy foreign portfolio investment (FPI) inflows over H2.

According to them, still on expected increased participation in the equities space, the likely implementation of the amended Regulation on Investment of Pension Fund Assets, particularly the introduction of the multi-fund structure released by the National Pension Commission (PENCOM) on 18th April, 2017, will further bolster local pension funds’ exposure to equities.

“The impact of this on pension fund managers exposure to risky asset will be positive for dealers who are already taking advantage of cheap valuation in local proprietary positions. Compared to 2016, most listed companies appear better positioned to deliver better-than-anticipated results over the remaining part of the year. Drilling on activities in the consumer goods space, we hinge our optimism on notable upside factors including improved access to the dollar (potentially limiting finance cost), moderately recovering consumer confidence, easing energy challenges, balance sheet deleveraging, rebounding aggregate demand (amid expected fiscal stimulus), and cost-reflective pricing,” they added.

The Cordros Capital analysts explained that speaking volume to their confidence in this environment is the rebound (after four-quarter negative growth) in manufacturing GDP – with food, beverage and tobacco being the biggest component, accounting for 44 per cent) – in the first three months of the year.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Finance

Presidential Committee to Exempt 95% of Informal Sector from Taxes

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tax relief

The Presidential Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms Committee (PFPTRC) has unveiled plans to exempt a significant portion of the informal sector from taxation.

Chaired by Taiwo Oyedele, the committee aims to alleviate the burden of multiple taxation on small businesses and low-income individuals while fostering economic growth.

The announcement came following the close-out retreat of the PFPTRC in Abuja, where Oyedele addressed reporters over the weekend.

He said the committee is committed to easing the tax burden, particularly for those operating within the informal sector that constitutes a substantial portion of Nigeria’s economy.

Under the proposed reforms, approximately 95% of the informal sector would be granted tax exemptions, sparing them from obligations such as income tax and value-added tax (VAT).

Oyedele stressed the importance of supporting individuals in the informal sector and recognizing their efforts to earn a legitimate living and their contribution to economic development.

The decision was informed by extensive deliberations and data analysis with the committee advocating for a fairer and more equitable tax system.

Oyedele highlighted that individuals earning up to N25 million annually would be exempted from various taxes, aligning with the committee’s commitment to relieving financial pressure on small businesses and low-income earners.

Moreover, the committee emphasized the need for tax reforms to address the prevailing issue of multiple taxation, which disproportionately affects small businesses and the vulnerable population.

By exempting the majority of the informal sector from taxation, the committee aims to stimulate economic growth and promote entrepreneurship.

The proposal for tax reforms is expected to be submitted to the National Assembly by the third quarter of this year, following consultations with the private sector and internal approvals.

The reforms encompass a broad range of measures, including executive orders, regulations, and constitutional amendments, aimed at creating a more conducive environment for business and investment.

In addition to tax exemptions, the committee plans to introduce executive orders and regulations to streamline tax processes and enhance compliance. This includes a new withholding tax regulation exempting small businesses from certain tax obligations, pending ministerial approval.

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Banking Sector

CBN Governor Vows to Tackle High Inflation, Signals Prolonged High Interest Rates

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Central Bank of Nigeria - Investors King

The Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Dr. Olayemi Cardoso, has pledged to employ decisive measures, including maintaining high interest rates for as long as necessary.

This announcement comes amidst growing concerns over the country’s soaring inflation rates, which have posed significant economic challenges in recent times.

Speaking in an interview with the Financial Times, Cardoso emphasized the unwavering commitment of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to take whatever steps are essential to rein in inflation.

He underscored the urgency of the situation, stating that there is “every indication” that the MPC is prepared to implement stringent measures to curb the upward trajectory of inflation.

“They will continue to do what has to be done to ensure that inflation comes down,” Cardoso affirmed, highlighting the determination of the CBN to confront the inflationary pressures gripping the economy.

The CBN’s proactive stance on inflation was evident from the outset of the year, with the MPC taking bold steps to tighten monetary policy.

The committee notably raised the benchmark lending rate by 400 basis points during its February meeting, further increasing it to 24.75% in March.

Looking ahead, the next MPC meeting, scheduled for May 20-21, will likely serve as a platform for further deliberations on monetary policy adjustments in response to evolving economic conditions.

Financial analysts have projected continued tightening measures by the MPC in light of stubbornly high inflation rates. Meristem Securities, for instance, anticipates a further uptick in headline inflation for April, underscoring the persistent inflationary pressures facing the economy.

Despite the necessity of maintaining high interest rates to address inflationary concerns, Cardoso acknowledged the potential drawbacks of such measures.

He expressed hope that the prolonged high rates would not dampen investment and production activities in the economy, recognizing the need for a delicate balance in monetary policy decisions.

“Hiking interest rates obviously has had a dampening effect on the foreign exchange market, so that has begun to moderate,” Cardoso remarked, highlighting the multifaceted impacts of monetary policy adjustments.

Addressing recent fluctuations in the value of the naira, Cardoso reassured investors of the central bank’s commitment to market stability.

He emphasized the importance of returning to orthodox monetary policies, signaling a departure from previous unconventional approaches to monetary management.

As the CBN governor charts a course towards stabilizing the economy and combating inflation, his steadfast resolve underscores the gravity of the challenges facing Nigeria’s monetary authorities.

In the face of daunting inflationary pressures, the commitment to decisive action offers a glimmer of hope for achieving stability and sustainable economic growth in the country.

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Banking Sector

NDIC Managing Director Reveals: Only 25% of Customers’ Deposits Insured

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Retail banking

The Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of the Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC), Bello Hassan, has revealed that a mere 25% of customers’ deposits are insured by the corporation.

This revelation has sparked concerns about the vulnerability of depositors’ funds and raised questions about the adequacy of regulatory safeguards in Nigeria’s banking sector.

Speaking on the sidelines of the 2024 Sensitisation Seminar for justices of the court of appeal in Lagos, themed ‘Building Strong Depositors Confidence in Banks and Other Financial Institutions through Adjudication,’ Hassan shed light on the limited coverage of deposit insurance for bank customers.

Hassan addressed recent concerns surrounding the hike in deposit insurance coverage and emphasized the need for periodic reviews to ensure adequacy and credibility.

He explained that the decision to increase deposit insurance limits was based on various factors, including the average deposit size, inflation impact, GDP per capita, and exchange rate fluctuations.

Despite the coverage extending to approximately 98% of depositors, Hassan underscored the critical gap between the number of depositors covered and the value of deposits insured.

He stressed that while nearly all depositors are accounted for, only a quarter of the total value of deposits is protected, leaving a significant portion of funds vulnerable to risk.

“The coverage is just 25% of the total value of the deposits,” Hassan affirmed, highlighting the disparity between the number of depositors covered and the actual value of deposits within the banking system.

Moreover, Hassan addressed concerns about moral hazard, emphasizing that the presence of uninsured deposits would incentivize banks to exercise market discipline and mitigate risks associated with reckless behavior.

“The quantum of deposits not covered will enable banks to exercise market discipline and eliminate the issue of moral hazards,” Hassan stated, suggesting that the lack of full coverage serves as a safeguard against irresponsible banking practices.

However, Hassan’s revelations have prompted calls for greater regulatory oversight and transparency within Nigeria’s financial institutions. Critics argue that the current level of deposit insurance falls short of providing adequate protection for depositors, especially in the event of bank failures or financial crises.

The disclosure comes amid ongoing efforts by regulatory authorities to bolster depositor confidence and strengthen the resilience of the banking sector. With concerns mounting over the stability of Nigeria’s financial system, stakeholders are urging for proactive measures to address vulnerabilities and enhance consumer protection.

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