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Budget: FG Raises Non-oil GDP Projection to N104tn

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  • Budget: FG Raises Non-oil GDP Projection to N104tn

The Federal Government is proposing to raise the non-oil’s Gross Domestic Product growth rate for 2018 to N104.65tn from N99.79tn budgeted in 2017, which is an increase of N4.8tn.

The proposal is contained in the draft of 2018-2020 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework and Fiscal Strategy of the Federal Government.

The document outlines the Federal Government’s fiscal policies and macroeconomic projections for 2018 to 2020 as well as the broad framework for annual budget and fiscal management.

To achieve the growth projections, the document said the government would be focussing on five execution priorities and categories of initiatives to sustain the economic recovery.

The priorities are to stabilise the macroeconomic environment; to achieve agriculture and food security; to improve transportation infrastructure; to ensure sufficiency in power industry and petroleum products; and to drive industrialisation through focusing on the Small and Medium Enterprises.

Based on the government strategy, agriculture’s GDP is projected to rise from 5.03 per cent this year to 7.04 per cent.

For the industry and services sector, the government is projecting a GDP of 6.11 per cent and 3.16 per cent, respectively in 2018.

The Minister of Budget and National Planning said that since the country was already on its way out of economic recession, the current efforts of the Federal Government was on how to build the momentum of this growth trajectory.

This, according to him, has become imperative so as to ensure that the growth is maintained at the post-recession era with positive impact on the people.

He said, “The national debate is no longer about how to get out of recession; we are already moving in that direction with the adoption of the ERGP (Economic Recovery and Growth Plan).

“Focus will therefore be on specific sectors such as infrastructure, manufacturing, renewable energy, housing, agribusiness, creative industries, retail trade and digitalisation.”

But the Centre for Social Justice said that for a country that was still in recession to be projecting a growth rate of 4.8 per cent for 2018 was an overly ambitious move.

The Lead Director, CSJ, Mr. Eze Onyekpere, said the government needed to rethink its economic policies so that it could attract more foreign investors.

He said, “For a country that is still in recession in the third quarter of 2017 to be planning to do 4.8 per cent growth in 2018 will be a dramatic and quantum leap, which the economy has not been sufficiently primed to do.

“If the projection remains in the realm of being motivational, that is good enough. Again, this parameter is overly optimistic.

“The Federal Government needs to rethink its economic policies so that it can attract more foreign investors and unlock available local capital.

“The political process reflects and breathes down on the economic and social processes. Nigeria needs to unlock her potential and drive the economy away from its crude oil dependence through a process of evidence-led restructuring that allows the states or groups of states to take targeted, concrete and calculated steps to improve infrastructure, ease of doing business, access to credit and land reforms.”

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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