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World’s Biggest Pension Fund Rides Stocks to $46 Billion Gain

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Japan's Pension Fund Reports Record $64B Loss
  • World’s Biggest Pension Fund Rides Stocks to $46 Billion Gain

The world’s biggest pension fund posted its fourth-straight quarterly gain, as global stocks rose and a decline in the yen against both the dollar and the euro helped boost the value of its overseas investments.

The Government Pension Investment Fund returned 3.5 percent, or 5.1 trillion yen ($46 billion), in the three months ended June 30, increasing assets to a record 149.2 trillion yen, it said in Tokyo on Friday. Domestic equities added 2.3 trillion yen as the benchmark Topix index rose in the period, while the value of foreign stocks increased by 1.9 trillion yen.

The Japanese retirement fund’s recent string of quarterly gains follows a series of losses after it overhauled its strategy in 2014 to buy more shares and cut debt. GPIF, which holds the majority of its stock investments in strategies that track indexes, benefits when broader equity markets are rising.

“With stronger stocks, we’re not seeing a repeat of trillions of yen of paper losses that we saw in the past,” said Ayako Sera, a market strategist with Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank Ltd. in Tokyo. “Performance is improving, but we still have to maintain a calm view.”

The fund’s Japanese share holdings returned 6.6 percent over the three months, matching the Topix’s performance. Overseas stocks added 5.5 percent, helped by a 7.6 percent drop in the yen against the euro, the biggest decline since 2013, as well as weakness versus the greenback, both of which increase the value of foreign holdings when repatriated. The MSCI All-Country World Index climbed 3.6 percent last quarter.

“A positive market environment continued” in the June quarter, with good global economic data and corporate earnings supporting increases in stocks, GPIF President Norihiro Takahashi said in a statement Friday. “The yen was in a weakening trend due to expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates and the ECB will move toward normalizing monetary policy, while the Bank of Japan’s quantitative easing policy continued.”

The fund’s domestic bond holdings, which accounted for 30.5 percent of total assets, managed a nearly flat return. Foreign bonds added 4.5 percent, making up 13.5 percent of the GPIF’s investments at the end of June.

Japanese stocks accounted for 24.4 percent of holdings, while overseas equities were 23.9 percent of assets. The target levels for GPIF’s portfolio are 35 percent for domestic debt, 15 percent for foreign bonds, and 25 percent each for domestic and overseas shares.

Alternative assets accounted for 0.1 percent of GPIF holdings, well below the allowable limit of 5 percent. A recent proposal by the health ministry to allow the fund to trade stock index futures could increase its alternative-asset holdings. The fund has also invested around 1 trillion yen into indexes that track Japanese stocks with high environmental, social and corporate governance scores.

“They’ve only lit the lantern now, but I expect this to keep expanding further,” said Koichi Kurose, Tokyo-based chief market strategist at Resona Bank Ltd. on the fund’s ESG investments.

Is the CEO and Founder of Investors King Limited. He is a seasoned foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Business Insider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and other prominent platforms. With over two decades of experience in global financial markets, Olukoya is well-recognized in the industry.

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Energy

Tinubu’s Government to Convert Fuel Stations to CNG Outlets for Cheaper, Cleaner Energy

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The Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, has revealed President Bola Tinubu’s plans to convert fuel stations into Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) outlets to provide Nigerians with an affordable alternative to petrol.

In a statement on Wednesday, while addressing State House correspondents after the Federal Executive Council (FEC) meeting, Ekpo confirmed that the President intends to expand the use of CNG across the country.

The minister emphasized that CNG is here to stay and urged Nigerians to embrace the initiative, adding that it is safe, cheaper, and environmentally friendly.

He said, “We are well aware that the President set up a Presidential Committee on the CNG to drive the CNG project. It is left for us to inform the general public that CNG has come to stay, and we have to follow that route because CNG is safe, cheaper, and protects the environment.

“It is important to note that when you are using CNG, you save a lot of money, a litre of fuel can go for N1000, but you get CNG at N200 per litre, which saves you N800.

“With the passion of Mr President, the push that he has given to us, we’ll try to drive the CNG programme to reach the nooks and crannies of this country.

“We have to take advantage of the natural resources, gas, that God has endowed us with.

“What we produce in our country is more than enough for us to use for CNG; and of course, you know, we are exporting to so many other countries.”

This development follows a recent CNG vehicle explosion at the NIPCO CNG station on Eyean, Auchi Road, Edo State, which resulted in multiple injuries and damage to vehicles in the vicinity.

Fortunately, no deaths were recorded.

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Crude Oil

Large US Crude Inventories Weaken Oil Prices

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Crude Oil

Oil prices fell on Wednesday after data showed that US crude inventories rose as traders continued to consider the conflict in the Middle East.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, shed $1.08, or 1.42 per cent to settle at $74.96 per barrel while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil dipped by 97 cents, or 1.35 per cent to $70.77.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an inventory increase of 5.5 million barrels for the week to October 18.

The inventory change followed an American Petroleum Institute (API) estimate of a build totalling 1.64 million barrels for the reported period. It also compared with a draw of 2.2 million barrels for the previous week, as reported by the EIA last Thursday.

In petrol, the American authority estimated an inventory build of 900,000 barrels for the week to October 18, with production averaging 10 million barrels daily.

This compared with an inventory decline of 2.2 million barrels for the previous week when petrol production averaged 9.3 million barrels daily.

Market analysts noted that the crude inventory build is due to the recent hurricane in the US which curtailed production in the largest oil producer in the world.

Pressure also came as the US dollar index rose to its highest point in late July.

A strong US Dollar can hurt demand for oil, which is priced in the American currency, as it makes it more expensive for holders of other currencies.

The market also continued to monitor developments and concerns over potential oil supply risk from conflict in the Middle East.

On Wednesday, there was no tangible outcome from the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s latest visit to Israel.

Israel continues to pound both Gaza and Lebanon, and most recently it killed the next in line to the top spot at Hezbollah, Hashem Safieddine, sparking expectations of retaliation.

Mr Blinken pushed on Wednesday for a halt to fighting between Israel and militant groups Hamas and Hezbollah, but heavy air strikes carried out by Israel on a Lebanese port city Tyre showed that there is no calm in sight.

Market participants expect the conflict to go on longer and have taken advantage of the events unfolding to price longer.

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Gold

Gold Continues Gains Amid Political Uncertainty in the US

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gold bars - Investors King

Written by Samer Hasn, Senior Market Analyst at XS

Gold continues to reap historic gains today, touching $2,758 per ounce for the first time.

Gold’s rise comes amid heightened political uncertainty, driven by the approaching U.S. presidential election and the tightening poll results between the candidates. The absence of any near prospect for a ceasefire on any of the Middle East’s raging fronts also keeps the yellow metal’s appeal high.

While gold’s continued rise despite the strength of the US dollar and rising Treasury yields seems to reinforce the hypothesis that this rise is driven by increasing uncertainty rather than hope for lower interest rates.

With less than two weeks to go until the presidential election, we see no clear lead for either candidate over the other. Meanwhile, Kamala Harris is 1.7 percentage points ahead of Republican candidate Donald Trump in the average of the polls, according to FiveThirtyEight.

This closeness in the polls may reduce bets on risky assets, which may be volatile sharply after the results are announced, and at the same time, it may boost demand for safe assets.

During the previous two sessions, the largest physical gold exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), attracted net positive inflows of about $580 million, while the iShares Gold Trust (IAU) recorded about $82 million in inflows during the same period.

However, Wall Street does not seem to share the same views. The Wall Street Journal talked about the increasing bets by hedge funds on the possibility of a Donald Trump victory. Some are betting on further strengthening of the dollar as Trump imposes tariffs and reignites trade wars.

This will fuel inflation, which in turn is reflected in the rise in long-term Treasury yields, which reflect expectations of future interest rate hikes.

This in turn may be a negative factor that pressures gold to curb its gains, but in contrast, the International Monetary Fund sees high uncertainty about the future. The trade war and tariffs would disrupt global supply chains and hinder growth in the medium term.

Further, in the Middle East, we have seen increasing talk from the US administration about pushing for a ceasefire, especially with Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to Israel. However, I do not believe that this will lead to any tangible progress towards stopping the war on any of the regional fronts.

Egypt has presented a small proposal for a temporary ceasefire in Gaza. However, this proposal does not seem to lead to anything, especially since the far-right ministers in Israel are opposing it, according to what Israeli officials told Axios earlier this week.

This is regarding a temporary ceasefire, while reaching an agreement for a permanent ceasefire and ending the war will be even more difficult. Hamas also may not accept the return of the hostages unless the war stops, according to The New York Times.

As for Lebanon, Israel has sent to US the conditions for ending its war there, which are believed to be unacceptable to Lebanon because they constitute a violation of sovereignty, according to Axios as well. The conditions include granting Israel the freedom to carry out military operations inside Lebanon.

In addition, Nicholas Kristof says in an opinion piece in The New York Times that he is skeptical about capitalizing on the “opportunity” to stop the war after the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar due to the lack of significant pressure from the US administration on Israel. He also believes that the momentum around this opportunity may fade in the coming days as the escalation worsens if Israel attacks Iran, prompting the latter to carry out a counter-response.

Instead of seeking to reach an agreement to stop the war, we see growing momentum inside Israel for the idea of ​​resettling the Gaza Strip, which contradicts any peace efforts. The Wall Street Journal mentioned further promote for this idea by members of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party, which describes itself as liberal, and this comes in conjunction with the escalating rhetoric of the extreme religious right about resettlement.

Accordingly, I believe that the increasing talk about the hope that a calm is approaching in this regional war is exaggerated and it will diminish with the coming rounds of escalation.

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