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We’re Already Moving Out of Recession — Udoma

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  • We’re Already Moving Out of Recession

The Minister of Budget and National Planning, Senator Udo Udoma, on Thursday said that the country was already moving out of economic recession.

Udoma stated this in Abuja while inaugurating the Joint Planning Committee for the 23rd Nigerian Economic Summit.

The summit, to be held in October this year, is the single largest gathering of economic and financial experts from the private and public sectors.

The theme of this year’s summit is: ‘Actualising the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan: Opportunities, productivity and employment’.

However, the Federal Government and the International Monetary Fund have disagreed over how much the economy will grow this year, with the government saying 2.2 percent and the Fund opting for just 0.8 percent.

Either will be an improvement on last year, when Nigeria suffered its first recession in more than two decades as low crude prices and oil production slashed government revenues and caused chronic dollar shortages.

The government’s forecasts, seen by Reuters on Thursday, are contained in a document titled: ‘2018-2020 Medium Term Fiscal Framework and Strategy Paper’ dated July 27, which forms the basis for its 2018 budget.

It projects a big bounce back, to 2.2 per cent this year, 4.8 per cent in 2018 and 4.5 per cent in 2019, before reaching seven per cent in 2020.

The IMF, however, is not as bullish, saying on Wednesday it expected the Nigerian economy to grow by 0.8 per cent this year, with threats to growth remaining elevated.

Udoma said that while national debates in the past had centred on how the country could get out of recession, such was no longer the case with the adoption of the ERGP.

He stated that as the country was already on its way out of recession, the current efforts of the Federal Government were on how to build the current momentum of the growth trajectory.

This, according to him, has become imperative so as to ensure that the growth is maintained post-recession with positive impact on the people.

The minister said, “The 23rd Nigerian Economic Summit is coming at a time when the national debate is no longer about how to get out of recession; we are already moving in that direction with the adoption of the ERGP.

“Focus will, therefore, be on specific sectors such as infrastructure, manufacturing, renewable energy, housing, agribusiness, creative industries, retail trade and digitalisation. The summit will essentially be used to see how we can intensify efforts to implement the ERGP to create opportunities, tackle unemployment and improve productivity in Nigeria.”

Udoma added that the summit would be used to get stakeholders’ commitments toward a private sector led investment approach as set out in the ERGP.

He explained that the summit would also complement the Federal Government’s effort to create over 15 million direct jobs by 2020 through agriculture, manufacturing, construction and services, among others.

The Chief Executive Officer, Nigerian Economic Summit Group, Mr. Laoye Jaiyeola, said the committee would deliver a summit that would meet all expected outcomes.

He told the minister that the committee will use the summit to promote and support the actualisation of the ERGP.

Commenting on the growth projection, the Africa economist at Capital Economics, John Ashbourne, said, “I think that risks are to the downside rather than the upside, but 2.2 per cent isn’t outside the range of the possible now that oil prices and oil output are recovering.”

The country expects oil production to hit 2.3 million barrels per day and a price of $45 per barrel. It said oil production reached 1.9 million barrels between January and June 2017, including condensates.

Nigeria has promised OPEC to cap its crude oil output at 1.8 million bpd, although it does not include condensates in this total.

The country’s economy contracted by 0.5 per cent in the first quarter, its smallest fall in five quarters of decline.

The government projects the naira’s exchange rate to the dollar, which has traded at around 305 on the official market since 2016, to remain stable, while inflation will decline but remain in double-digits at 12.42 per cent next year.

The country has at least six exchange rates, which it has used to mask pressure on the naira after a drop in oil price caused foreign investors to flee, triggering a currency crisis.

The Central Bank of Nigeria has been working to converge the rates through dollar interventions but that is burning out reserves.

“Should there be any harmonisation in FX rates, as encouraged by the multilateral agencies, then an FX assumption of 305 is likely to prove unrealistic,” said Razia Khan, chief economist Africa at Standard Chartered Bank.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Nigeria’s Inflation Climbs to 28-Year High at 33.69% in April

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Nigeria's Inflation Rate - Investors King

Nigeria is grappling with soaring inflation as data from the statistics agency revealed that the country’s headline inflation surged to a new 28-year high in April.

The consumer price index, which measures the inflation rate, rose to 33.69% year-on-year, up from 33.20% in March.

This surge in inflation comes amid a series of economic challenges, including subsidy cuts on petrol and electricity and twice devaluing the local naira currency by the administration of President Bola Tinubu.

The sharp rise in inflation has been a pressing concern for policymakers, leading the central bank to take measures to address the growing price pressures.

The central bank has raised interest rates twice this year, including its largest hike in around 17 years, in an attempt to contain inflationary pressures.

Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria has indicated that interest rates will remain high for as long as necessary to bring down inflation.

The bank is set to hold another rate-setting meeting next week to review its policy stance.

A report by the National Bureau of Statistics highlighted that the food and non-alcoholic beverages category continued to be the biggest contributor to inflation in April.

Food inflation, which accounts for the bulk of the inflation basket, rose to 40.53% in annual terms, up from 40.01% in March.

In response to the economic challenges posed by soaring inflation, President Tinubu’s administration has announced a salary hike of up to 35% for civil servants to ease the pressure on government workers.

Also, to support vulnerable households, the government has restarted a direct cash transfer program and distributed at least 42,000 tons of grains such as corn and millet.

The rising inflation rate presents significant challenges for Nigeria’s economy, impacting the purchasing power of consumers and adding strains to household budgets.

As the government continues to grapple with inflationary pressures, policymakers are faced with the task of implementing measures to stabilize prices and mitigate the adverse effects on the economy and livelihoods of citizens.

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FG Acknowledges Labour’s Protest, Assures Continued Dialogue

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Power - Investors King

The Federal Government through the Ministry of Power has acknowledged the organised Labour request for a reduction in electric tariff.

The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) and Trade Union Congress (TUC) had picketed offices of the National Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) and Distribution Companies nationwide over the hike in electricity tariff.

The unions had described the upward review, demanding outright cancellation.

Addressing State House correspondents after the Federal Executive Council (FEC) meeting on Tuesday, Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, said labour had the right to protest.

“We cannot stop them from organizing peaceful protest or laying down their demands. Let me make that clear. President Bola Tinubu’s administration is also a listening government.”

“We have heard their demands, we’re going to look at it, we’ll make further engagements and I believe we’re going to reach a peaceful resolution with the labor because no government can succeed without the cooperation, collaboration and partnership with the Labour unions. So we welcome the peaceful protest and I’m happy that it was not a violent protest. They’ve made their positions known and government has taken in their demands and we’re looking at it.

“But one thing that I want to state here is from the statistics of those affected by the hike in tariff, the people on the road yesterday, who embarked on the peaceful protests, more than 95% of them are not affected by the increase in the tariff of electricity. They still enjoy almost 70% government subsidy in the tariff they pay because the average costs of generating, transmitting and distributing electricity is not less than N180 today.

“A lot of them are paying below N60 so they still enjoy government’s subsidy. So when they say we should reverse the recently increased tariff, sincerely it’s not affecting them. That’s one position.

“My appeal again is that they should please not derail or distract our transformation plan for the industry. We have a clearly documented reform roadmap to take us to our desired destination, where we’re going to have reliable, functional, cost-effective and affordable electricity in Nigeria. It cannot be achieved overnight because this is a decay of almost 60 years, which we are trying to correct.”

He said there was the need for sacrifice from everybody, “from the government’s side, from the people’s side, from the private sector side. So we must bear this sacrifice for us to have a permanent gain”.

“I don’t want us to go back to the situation we were in February and March, where we had very low generation. We all felt the impact of this whereby electricity supply was very low and every household, every company, every institution, felt it. From the little reform that we’ve embarked upon since the beginning of April, we have seen the impact that electricity has improved and it can only get better.”

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Nigeria, China Collaborate to Bridge $18 Billion Trade Gap Through Agricultural Exports

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In a concerted effort to address the $18 billion trade deficit between Nigeria and China, both nations have embarked on a collaborative endeavor aimed at bolstering agricultural exports from Nigeria to China.

This strategic partnership, heralded as a landmark initiative in bilateral trade relations, seeks to narrow the trade gap and foster more balanced economic exchanges between the two countries.

The Executive Director of the Nigerian Export Promotion Council (NEPC), Nonye Ayeni, revealed this collaboration during a joint meeting between the Council and the Department of Commerce of Hunan province, China, held in Abuja on Monday.

Addressing the trade imbalance, Ayeni said collaborative efforts will help close the gap and stimulate more equitable trade relations between the two nations.

With Nigeria importing approximately $20.4 billion worth of goods from China, while its exports to China stood at around $2 billion, representing a $18 billion in trade deficit.

This significant imbalance has prompted officials from both countries to strategize on how to rebalance trade dynamics and promote mutually beneficial economic exchanges.

The collaborative effort between Nigeria and China focuses on leveraging the vast potential of Nigeria’s agricultural sector to expand export opportunities to the Chinese market.

Ayeni highlighted Nigeria’s abundant supply of over 1,000 exportable products, emphasizing the need to identify and promote the top 20 products with high demand in global markets, particularly in China.

“We have over 1,000 products in large quantities, and we expect that the collaboration will help us improve. The NEPC is focused on a 12-18 month target, focusing on the top 20 products based on global demand in the markets in which China is a top destination,” Ayeni explained, outlining the strategic objectives of the collaboration.

The initiative not only aims to reduce the trade deficit but also seeks to capitalize on China’s growing appetite for agricultural products. Nigeria, with its diverse agricultural landscape, sees an opportunity to expand its export market and capitalize on China’s increasing demand for agricultural imports.

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