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We’re Already Moving Out of Recession — Udoma

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Institute of Chartered Shipbrokers
  • We’re Already Moving Out of Recession

The Minister of Budget and National Planning, Senator Udo Udoma, on Thursday said that the country was already moving out of economic recession.

Udoma stated this in Abuja while inaugurating the Joint Planning Committee for the 23rd Nigerian Economic Summit.

The summit, to be held in October this year, is the single largest gathering of economic and financial experts from the private and public sectors.

The theme of this year’s summit is: ‘Actualising the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan: Opportunities, productivity and employment’.

However, the Federal Government and the International Monetary Fund have disagreed over how much the economy will grow this year, with the government saying 2.2 percent and the Fund opting for just 0.8 percent.

Either will be an improvement on last year, when Nigeria suffered its first recession in more than two decades as low crude prices and oil production slashed government revenues and caused chronic dollar shortages.

The government’s forecasts, seen by Reuters on Thursday, are contained in a document titled: ‘2018-2020 Medium Term Fiscal Framework and Strategy Paper’ dated July 27, which forms the basis for its 2018 budget.

It projects a big bounce back, to 2.2 per cent this year, 4.8 per cent in 2018 and 4.5 per cent in 2019, before reaching seven per cent in 2020.

The IMF, however, is not as bullish, saying on Wednesday it expected the Nigerian economy to grow by 0.8 per cent this year, with threats to growth remaining elevated.

Udoma said that while national debates in the past had centred on how the country could get out of recession, such was no longer the case with the adoption of the ERGP.

He stated that as the country was already on its way out of recession, the current efforts of the Federal Government were on how to build the current momentum of the growth trajectory.

This, according to him, has become imperative so as to ensure that the growth is maintained post-recession with positive impact on the people.

The minister said, “The 23rd Nigerian Economic Summit is coming at a time when the national debate is no longer about how to get out of recession; we are already moving in that direction with the adoption of the ERGP.

“Focus will, therefore, be on specific sectors such as infrastructure, manufacturing, renewable energy, housing, agribusiness, creative industries, retail trade and digitalisation. The summit will essentially be used to see how we can intensify efforts to implement the ERGP to create opportunities, tackle unemployment and improve productivity in Nigeria.”

Udoma added that the summit would be used to get stakeholders’ commitments toward a private sector led investment approach as set out in the ERGP.

He explained that the summit would also complement the Federal Government’s effort to create over 15 million direct jobs by 2020 through agriculture, manufacturing, construction and services, among others.

The Chief Executive Officer, Nigerian Economic Summit Group, Mr. Laoye Jaiyeola, said the committee would deliver a summit that would meet all expected outcomes.

He told the minister that the committee will use the summit to promote and support the actualisation of the ERGP.

Commenting on the growth projection, the Africa economist at Capital Economics, John Ashbourne, said, “I think that risks are to the downside rather than the upside, but 2.2 per cent isn’t outside the range of the possible now that oil prices and oil output are recovering.”

The country expects oil production to hit 2.3 million barrels per day and a price of $45 per barrel. It said oil production reached 1.9 million barrels between January and June 2017, including condensates.

Nigeria has promised OPEC to cap its crude oil output at 1.8 million bpd, although it does not include condensates in this total.

The country’s economy contracted by 0.5 per cent in the first quarter, its smallest fall in five quarters of decline.

The government projects the naira’s exchange rate to the dollar, which has traded at around 305 on the official market since 2016, to remain stable, while inflation will decline but remain in double-digits at 12.42 per cent next year.

The country has at least six exchange rates, which it has used to mask pressure on the naira after a drop in oil price caused foreign investors to flee, triggering a currency crisis.

The Central Bank of Nigeria has been working to converge the rates through dollar interventions but that is burning out reserves.

“Should there be any harmonisation in FX rates, as encouraged by the multilateral agencies, then an FX assumption of 305 is likely to prove unrealistic,” said Razia Khan, chief economist Africa at Standard Chartered Bank.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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