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Euro’s Rally Is Looking Extreme When You Examine the Technicals

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Euro currency
  • Euro’s Rally Is Looking Extreme When You Examine the Technicals

While it may not be apparent at first glance, the euro is beginning to show signs of peaking.

A series of technical indicators are pointing toward a near-term top for the shared currency, and even raising the risk of a correction versus the dollar after climbed to a 30-month high Wednesday. That may seem hard to fathom after traders said the Federal Reserve policy meeting left them with a dovish outlook, but some popular market gauges suggest taking a closer look.

Going into the meeting, positioning in the dollar, as measured by U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data, was extremely bearish. Speculative short positions are at the highest level since 2013. Speculators were even more bullish the euro, with net longs at the highest since 2007.

This data is seemingly verified by one technical study that measures trend strength and bullish/bearish momentum, the Direction Movement Index (DMI). This barometer shows bulls dominating the daily price action for the last 106 days, the longest uninterrupted streak since the euro’s approach to $1.50 in 2009.

Another J. Welles Wilder study, the relative strength index, shows the euro overbought on a daily and weekly basis. The weekly RSI reading of 72.50 is the highest since November 2007, a few months before the currency pair reached an all-time high of $1.6038.

The strength of the euro’s upward trajectory this year becomes clear when accounting for historical price action. Of the 22 technical strategies available for backtesting on the Bloomberg BTST function, the best performing trading strategy for euro this year has been a simple buy and hold. Scaled to time, euro longs have been rewarded for over six months and the trend has been so strong that the euro left a price gap when rates jumped from $1.0738 to $1.0821 after the French presidential elections in April.

Elliott Wave and Fibonacci analysis suggest that the euro may be nearing a top. The Elliott Wave study is close to completing the fifth wave of a price appreciation sequence that began Jan. 3. In theory, the euro should subsequently enter the first phase of a three-wave drop.

A five-year snapshot of the euro shows Fibonacci resistance at $1.1736, the 38.2 percent retracement from this year’s low to the May 2014 high of $1.3993. Looking further back, $1.1685 is the 23.6 % retracement level off the all-time high of $1.6038.

The euro’s ascent this year has coincided with a drop in volatility across currencies and asset classes, potentially indicating that markets are tied to cheap dollar funding. In this sense, a euro trend reversal similar to that seen in the spring of 2014 may not only spark a broader dollar rally but additional asset volatility.

What event may trigger the dollar rally? One does not need a fundamental reason to buy or sell when using technical analysis — simply a signal.

Is the CEO and Founder of Investors King Limited. He is a seasoned foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Business Insider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and other prominent platforms. With over two decades of experience in global financial markets, Olukoya is well-recognized in the industry.

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Naira

Naira Weakens Against Dollar at Official, Parallel FX Markets

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New Naira notes

The Naira depreciated at the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM) and the parallel market on Monday, signifying more worries for the local currency.

At the official market – NAFEM – the local currency sold for the US Dollar at N1,603.16/$1 as it recorded a 0.15 percent or N2.38 drop versus N1,600.78/$1 it was valued at the previous session on Friday.

This occurred as supply rose at the opening session as turnover published on the FMDQ Group website stood at $359.22 million indicating that the session’s turnover went higher by 2.4 percent or $8.50 million compared to $350.72 million that was published the day before.

At the unofficial market, the domestic currency closed at N1,698.97 to the US Dollar, a drop of N8.15 compared to N1,690.82/$1 it closed during the Friday trading session.

The weakening of the Naira is happening as the nation’s external reserves continue to swell due to lower US Dollar volume sales to boost liquidity in the official FX market.

Latest data showed the balance in Nigeria’s foreign reserves inched to about $39 billion as CBN data revealed that Nigeria now has $38.992 billion as gross balance in the nation’s external reserves.

The CBN has not made do with its promise to prop up the market as it appears to have halted its weekly FX sales

In a different trend, the domestic currency witnessed a flat outcome against the British currency and the Euro in the week’s opening session.

On the Pound Sterling, the local currency closed at N2,153.90/£1 and N1,800.79/€1 on the Euro.

In the parallel market, the local currency depreciated in its value against the British Pound Sterling by N11.69 to sell at N2,213.25/£1 compared with the preceding session’s N2,201.56/£1 and followed the same pattern against the Euro as it lost N10 to quote at N1,845.29/€1 versus the previous day’s rate of N1,835.29/€1.

The local currency also depreciated further by N8.64 to close at N1,225.82 per Canadian Dollar, compared to Friday’s N1,217.18 per CAD.

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Naira

Naira Appreciates 3.6% on US Dollar, Trades N1,600

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Naira to Dollar Exchange- Investors King Rate - Investors King

The Naira rose 3.6 percent on the US Dollar at the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) to exchange at N1,600.78/$1 on Friday, October 18 as the local currency appreciated amid an increased supply.

The domestic currency gained N59.71 on the American currency versus N1,660.49/$1, which it closed in the previous session on Thursday.

Data showed a rise in supply as the turnover published on the FMDQ Group website stood at $350.72 million indicating that the session’s turnover rose by 6.2 percent, indicating a rise of $20.54 million compared to $330.18 million that was published in the last trading session.

Meanwhile, the Naira witnessed a flat outcome against the Pound Sterling and the Euro as it closed on the British currency at N2,153.90/£1 and on the European currency at N1,791.06/€1 quoted in the preceding session.

In the Parallel market, the Naira weakened on the American currency as it closed at N1,690.82 to the US Dollar, a drop of N1.31 compared to N1,689.51/$1 it closed during the Wednesday trading session.

In the past months, the Naira has been volatile against the Dollar at the FX market despite interventions by the Central Bank of Nigeria.

The World Bank also said the Nigerian Naira is among the worst-performing currencies in sub-Sahara Africa at the end of August 2024.

In its latest edition of Africa’s Pulse report, the international organisation said the Naira is at par with the Ethiopian Birr, and South Sudanese Pound in terms of decline in the region.

However, the local currency appreciated in its value against the British Pound Sterling in the official market by N54 to sell at N2,201.93/£1 compared with the preceding session’s N2,147.93/£1 and followed the same pattern against the Euro as it gained N4.58 to quote at N1,835.29/€1 versus the previous day’s rate of N1,839.87/€1.

The local currency also depreciated N16.11 to close at N1,217.18 per Canadian Dollar, compared to Thursday’s N1,201.07 per CAD.

 

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Black Market Rate

Naira Gains on Dollar, Pounds, Others at Black Market, Falls at NAFEX

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New Naira notes

The Naira gained against the US Dollar in the Parallel segment of the foreign exchange market on Thursday, October 17 as it closed at N1,689.51 to the American currency, a gain of N4.41 compared to N1,693.32/$1 it closed during the Wednesday trading session.

The Naira also gained in its value against the British Pound Sterling in the market by N11.19 to sell at N2,147.93/£1 compared with the preceding session’s N2,159.12/£1 and followed the same pattern against the Euro as it appreciated N8.07 to quote at N1,839.87/€1 versus the previous day’s rate of N1,847.94/€1.

The local currency also appreciated N3.59 to close at N1,201.07 per Canadian Dollar, compared to the previous day’s closing value of N1,204.66 per CAD.

Meanwhile, the Naira depreciated marginally for yet another session against the US Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) to N1,660.49/$1.

The local currency rose fell by 0.05 per cent or N91.01 at the window, according to data obtained from FMDQ Securities Exchange compared to N1,659.69/$1 published in the preceding session on Wednesday.

This occurred as supply rose at the penultimate session as turnover published on the FMDQ Group website stood at $330.18 million indicating that the session’s turnover jumped by 86.4 per cent, indicating that there was a decrease of $153.08 million compared to $177.10 million published the previous day.

The surge in supply could be due to peer-to-peer sales as the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has no actively injected liquidity in the market.

Investors King reports that the CBN in August re-introduced the retail Dutch auction system with the aim to sell US Dollar to FX users on demand basis but after the market witnessed more than $1.1 billion injected into the system, there has been slowdown in the auction.

In a different pattern, the local currency closed flat against the Pound Sterling and depreciated on the Euro at the closing session.

Trading against the British currency, the local currency closed at N2,153.90/£1 while it closed at the rate of N1,791.06/€1, a N9.73 appreciation against N1,800.79/€1 against the Euro.

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