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Nigeria Needs Strong Fiscal, Monetary Policies to Exit Recession – CBN

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  • Nigeria Needs Strong Fiscal, Monetary Policies to Exit Recession

The Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of Nigeria on Tuesday warned that the economy might relapse into protracted recession if bold monetary and fiscal policies were not activated immediately to sustain the programmes of the Federal Government.

The committee stated that available forecasts of key macroeconomic indicators pointed to a fragile economic recovery in the second quarter of the year.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that the contraction in the economy moderated to 0.52 per cent in the first quarter.

The MPC identified the downside risks to economic outlook to include weak financial intermediation, poorly targeted fiscal stimulus and absence of structural programme implementation.

The CBN Governor, Mr. Godwin Emefiele, while reading the communique after the end of the committee’s two-day meeting, called for more fiscal measures to stimulate the economy.

He said there was a need for improvements in economy-wide non-oil exports, especially agriculture, manufacturing, services and light industries.

He also said the expected fiscal stimulus, non-oil federal receipts and other measures that were expected to drive the growth impetus for the rest of the year must be pursued relentlessly.

Emefiele stated, “Available forecasts of key macroeconomic indicators point to a fragile economic recovery in the second quarter of the year. The committee cautioned that this recovery could relapse into a more protracted recession if strong and bold monetary and fiscal policies are not activated immediately to sustain it.

“Thus, the expected fiscal stimulus and non-oil federal receipts, as well as improvements in economy-wide non-oil exports, especially agriculture, manufacturing, services and light industries, all expected to drive the growth impetus for the rest of the year, must be pursued relentlessly.”

He added, “The committee expects that timely implementation of the 2017 budget, improved management of foreign exchange, as well as security gains across the country, especially in the Niger Delta and north-eastern axis, should be firmly anchored to enhance confidence and sustainability of economic recovery.

“The committee identified the downside risks to this outlook to include weak financial intermediation, poorly targeted fiscal stimulus and absence of structural programme implementation.”

Emefiele also said the committee expressed concern over the N2.51tn fiscal deficit of the Federal Government in the first half of this year, adding that it was stifling the growth of the private sector.

He welcomed the move by the fiscal authorities to engage the services of asset tracing experts to investigate the tax payment status of 150 firms and individuals in an effort to close some of the loopholes in tax collection and improve government revenue.

However, the governor said the committee expressed concern about the slow implementation of the 2017 budget and called on the relevant authorities to ensure timely implementation, especially, of the capital portion, in order to realise the objectives of the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan.

He added, “The MPC expressed concern over the increasing fiscal deficit estimated at N2.51tn in the first half of 2017 and the crowding out effect of high government borrowing.

“While urging fiscal restraint to check the growing deficit, the committee welcomed the proposal by the government to issue sovereign-backed promissory notes of about N3.4tn for the settlement of accumulated local debts and contractors’ arrears.

“The committee, however, advised the management of the bank (CBN) to monitor the release process of the promissory notes to avoid an excessive injection of liquidity into the system, thereby offsetting the gains so far achieved in inflation and exchange rate stability.”

On the outlook for financial system stability, the CBN governor said the MPC noted that in spite of the resilience of the banking sector, the prolonged weak macroeconomic environment had continued to impact negatively on the sector’s stability.

He noted that the committee reiterated its call on the apex bank to sustain its intensive surveillance of Deposit Money Banks’ activities for the purpose of promptly identifying and addressing vulnerabilities.

The committee, according to Emefiele, also called on the DMBs to support economic recovery and growth by extending reasonably-priced credit to the private sector.

On the Monetary Policy Rate, the governor said the committee voted to leave the rate unchanged at 14 per cent.

He explained that the six members of the committee agreed to maintain the current monetary policy stance.

He, however, added that two members voted to ease the Monetary Policy Rate.

The governor said apart from the MPR, which was retained at 14 per cent, the committee also retained the Cash Reserves Ratio at 22.5 per cent.

Also retained were the Liquidity Ratio at 30 per cent; and the Asymmetric Window at +200 and -500 basis points around the MPR.

Explaining the reason for holding the rates despite calls by the Minister of Finance, Mrs. Kemi Adeosun, and the Senate President, Bukola Saraki, for a reduction, Emefiele said that inflation rate, expected to fall by August, still had a strong base effect on the monetary policy stance.

According to him, the MPC believes that at this point, developments in the macro economy suggest the options of either to hold or to ease the monetary policy stance.

He said the committee was not unmindful of the high cost of capital and its implications on the ailing economy, but noted the liquidity surfeit in the banking system and the continuous weakness in financial intermediation.

While easing at this point will signal the committee’s sensitivity to growth and employment concerns by encouraging the flow of credit to the real economy, he stated that the rate of inflation, currently at 16.1 per cent, was capable of retarding growth.

He added that any reduction in interest rate at this time would reduce the cost of debt servicing, which was actually crowding out government expenditure.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Nigeria’s Inflation Climbs to 28-Year High at 33.69% in April

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Nigeria's Inflation Rate - Investors King

Nigeria is grappling with soaring inflation as data from the statistics agency revealed that the country’s headline inflation surged to a new 28-year high in April.

The consumer price index, which measures the inflation rate, rose to 33.69% year-on-year, up from 33.20% in March.

This surge in inflation comes amid a series of economic challenges, including subsidy cuts on petrol and electricity and twice devaluing the local naira currency by the administration of President Bola Tinubu.

The sharp rise in inflation has been a pressing concern for policymakers, leading the central bank to take measures to address the growing price pressures.

The central bank has raised interest rates twice this year, including its largest hike in around 17 years, in an attempt to contain inflationary pressures.

Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria has indicated that interest rates will remain high for as long as necessary to bring down inflation.

The bank is set to hold another rate-setting meeting next week to review its policy stance.

A report by the National Bureau of Statistics highlighted that the food and non-alcoholic beverages category continued to be the biggest contributor to inflation in April.

Food inflation, which accounts for the bulk of the inflation basket, rose to 40.53% in annual terms, up from 40.01% in March.

In response to the economic challenges posed by soaring inflation, President Tinubu’s administration has announced a salary hike of up to 35% for civil servants to ease the pressure on government workers.

Also, to support vulnerable households, the government has restarted a direct cash transfer program and distributed at least 42,000 tons of grains such as corn and millet.

The rising inflation rate presents significant challenges for Nigeria’s economy, impacting the purchasing power of consumers and adding strains to household budgets.

As the government continues to grapple with inflationary pressures, policymakers are faced with the task of implementing measures to stabilize prices and mitigate the adverse effects on the economy and livelihoods of citizens.

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FG Acknowledges Labour’s Protest, Assures Continued Dialogue

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The Federal Government through the Ministry of Power has acknowledged the organised Labour request for a reduction in electric tariff.

The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) and Trade Union Congress (TUC) had picketed offices of the National Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) and Distribution Companies nationwide over the hike in electricity tariff.

The unions had described the upward review, demanding outright cancellation.

Addressing State House correspondents after the Federal Executive Council (FEC) meeting on Tuesday, Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, said labour had the right to protest.

“We cannot stop them from organizing peaceful protest or laying down their demands. Let me make that clear. President Bola Tinubu’s administration is also a listening government.”

“We have heard their demands, we’re going to look at it, we’ll make further engagements and I believe we’re going to reach a peaceful resolution with the labor because no government can succeed without the cooperation, collaboration and partnership with the Labour unions. So we welcome the peaceful protest and I’m happy that it was not a violent protest. They’ve made their positions known and government has taken in their demands and we’re looking at it.

“But one thing that I want to state here is from the statistics of those affected by the hike in tariff, the people on the road yesterday, who embarked on the peaceful protests, more than 95% of them are not affected by the increase in the tariff of electricity. They still enjoy almost 70% government subsidy in the tariff they pay because the average costs of generating, transmitting and distributing electricity is not less than N180 today.

“A lot of them are paying below N60 so they still enjoy government’s subsidy. So when they say we should reverse the recently increased tariff, sincerely it’s not affecting them. That’s one position.

“My appeal again is that they should please not derail or distract our transformation plan for the industry. We have a clearly documented reform roadmap to take us to our desired destination, where we’re going to have reliable, functional, cost-effective and affordable electricity in Nigeria. It cannot be achieved overnight because this is a decay of almost 60 years, which we are trying to correct.”

He said there was the need for sacrifice from everybody, “from the government’s side, from the people’s side, from the private sector side. So we must bear this sacrifice for us to have a permanent gain”.

“I don’t want us to go back to the situation we were in February and March, where we had very low generation. We all felt the impact of this whereby electricity supply was very low and every household, every company, every institution, felt it. From the little reform that we’ve embarked upon since the beginning of April, we have seen the impact that electricity has improved and it can only get better.”

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Nigeria, China Collaborate to Bridge $18 Billion Trade Gap Through Agricultural Exports

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In a concerted effort to address the $18 billion trade deficit between Nigeria and China, both nations have embarked on a collaborative endeavor aimed at bolstering agricultural exports from Nigeria to China.

This strategic partnership, heralded as a landmark initiative in bilateral trade relations, seeks to narrow the trade gap and foster more balanced economic exchanges between the two countries.

The Executive Director of the Nigerian Export Promotion Council (NEPC), Nonye Ayeni, revealed this collaboration during a joint meeting between the Council and the Department of Commerce of Hunan province, China, held in Abuja on Monday.

Addressing the trade imbalance, Ayeni said collaborative efforts will help close the gap and stimulate more equitable trade relations between the two nations.

With Nigeria importing approximately $20.4 billion worth of goods from China, while its exports to China stood at around $2 billion, representing a $18 billion in trade deficit.

This significant imbalance has prompted officials from both countries to strategize on how to rebalance trade dynamics and promote mutually beneficial economic exchanges.

The collaborative effort between Nigeria and China focuses on leveraging the vast potential of Nigeria’s agricultural sector to expand export opportunities to the Chinese market.

Ayeni highlighted Nigeria’s abundant supply of over 1,000 exportable products, emphasizing the need to identify and promote the top 20 products with high demand in global markets, particularly in China.

“We have over 1,000 products in large quantities, and we expect that the collaboration will help us improve. The NEPC is focused on a 12-18 month target, focusing on the top 20 products based on global demand in the markets in which China is a top destination,” Ayeni explained, outlining the strategic objectives of the collaboration.

The initiative not only aims to reduce the trade deficit but also seeks to capitalize on China’s growing appetite for agricultural products. Nigeria, with its diverse agricultural landscape, sees an opportunity to expand its export market and capitalize on China’s increasing demand for agricultural imports.

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