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Nigeria’s GDP to Hit $3.3 Trillion in 2050 – PwC

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  • Nigeria’s GDP to Hit $3.3 Trillion in 2050

Economists at PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) have projected that Nigeria could emerge the 14th largest economy in the world by 2050 with Gross domestic product (GDP) of $3.3 trillion.

PwC made this projection in a special report titled: ‘Boosting Investments: Nigeria’s path to growth’, obtained on Monday. The company said to deliver sustainable growth with per capita gains, Nigeria needs to aggressively boost domestic and foreign investments over the next decade.

According to PwC, while nation’s economy fell into a recession for the first time since 1991 last year, recent string of economic releases suggest that the economy might have bottomed out with fragile signs of recovery, driven largely by improved liquidity in the foreign exchange markets and policy measures to improve the business environment.

The company, which said foreign exchange regime remains the key to stimulating investment, explained that the report which examined Nigeria’s Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP) identified two critical factors for unlocking private investment-improving the business environment, and having a sustainable foreign exchange regime.

“We note that the country has made some progress towards improving the business environment through several reforms, including a 60-day action plan implemented over the past six months. However, more needs to be done, in particular, with respect to paying taxes, getting access to electricity and other infrastructure, which are critical to bolster investment,” PwC said.

The report added that while foreign exchange liquidity has improved in recent times as the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) allows for more flexibility in the foreign exchange market, the existence of multiple exchange rates with significant variances poses a risk to investment.

“In our view, a market-determined exchange rate, where all rates are harmonised, is fundamental to boosting domestic and foreign investments,” PwC said.

Speaking on impact of exchange rate flexibility on investment and economic growth, PwC said a number of academic literature have shown the positive impact of exchange rate flexibility on investment and economic growth.

“Broadly, it has been argued that a flexible exchange rate regime has a positive effect on investment and economic growth compared to a fixed or intermediate regime. Ihnatov and Capraru (2012) using data from 16 Central and Eastern European Countries find that flexible exchange rate regimes have a superior positive effect on growth in per-capita GDP relative to intermediate and 4 fixed regimes .

Levy-Yeyati and Federico Sturzenegger (2003) studied the relationship between exchange rate regimes and economic growth using a sample of 183 countries, and finds that median annual real GDP per capita growth for floaters was 0.7 percentage points higher than pegs. For developing countries, less flexible exchange rate regimes were associated with slower growth, as well as with greater 5 output fluctuations.

“ Eregha (2017) also studied the impact of exchange rate regime on FDI in the West African Monetary Zone using data for the period of 1980 t0 2014 and finds that exchange rate uncertainty suppressed FDI inflows to the selected countries, and the magnitude of the impact was significantly high,” the report said.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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Economy

IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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Economy

South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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