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Oil Output Rises in Nigeria, Others More Than Offset Venezuela Drop

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Crude oil
  • Oil Output Rises in Nigeria, Others More Than Offset Venezuela Drop

A new report by the oil pricing group, Platts indicates that the crude oil production increases in Nigeria, Libya, and Saudi Arabia have pushed output by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) up by 220,000 barrels per day and more than offset production drop in Venezuela.

The latest S & P Global Platts survey released at the weekend showed that OPEC’s crude output has risen by 500,000 bpd in the last two months, as the continued recoveries of Nigeria and Libya pushed the cartel’s output to 32.49 million b/d.

The June output figure, an increase of 220,000 bpd from May, is a six-month high for the organisation, complicating its efforts to hasten the oil market’s rebalancing through production cuts that went into force January 1, according to Platts.

The report noted that the production rises in Libya and Nigeria, which were exempted from the agreement as they recovered from militancy, have sent the cartel’s collective output almost 600,000 b/d above its stated ceiling of around 31.9 million b/d when new member, Equatorial Guinea, is added in and suspended member Indonesia is subtracted.

Libya’s production, boosted by the return of several fields that had been shut in by civil strife, rose 80,000 b/d on the month to average 810,000 b/d, its highest level since October 2014, when output averaged at 860,000 b/d, according to Platts survey data.

The report showed that Nigeria’s output, meanwhile, rose 50,000 bpd to 1.78 million bpd, the highest since January 2016, as key export grade Forcados returned from force majeure, more than offsetting the force majeure declared June 8 on Bonny Light exports, as well as unplanned maintenance on the Bonga field.

Further recoveries appear likely, as militancy has quieted in both countries for the moment, the report added.

The combined output of Libya and Nigeria is now about 380,000 b/d above their October level, the benchmark month from which OPEC based its 1.2 million b/d cut in its output agreement.

This comes even as compliance among OPEC’s 12 countries with quotas under the agreement remains robust at 116 per cent, according to an average of January through June production, as seven countries led by largest member Saudi Arabia have cut more than required.

Platts also noted that Saudi Arabia saw its output rise in the month to 9.97 million b/d, according to the survey, as the kingdom’s crude exports rose significantly and the onset of summer drove domestic consumption of oil to power air conditioning.

But that is still far below its quota under the deal of 10.06 million b/d.

Second largest member Iraq grew production slightly to 4.45 million b/d, remaining the least compliant country in terms of output above its quota, which is 4.35 million b/d.

Iran, OPEC’s third largest producer, also saw a slight increase in output to 3.8 million b/d, right at its quota under the deal, according to Platts.

Venezuela saw the largest decrease in the month, with production falling 30,000 b/d to 1.91 million b/d, the survey found, as the country’s economic crisis continued to worsen, with various refinery units and heavy crude upgraders being shut down and extra heavy crude production being shut in.

New member Equatorial Guinea produced 140,000 b/d in June, down from 150,000 b/d in May, according to the survey.

Diplomatically isolated Qatar, meanwhile, has yet to see any impact to production from the economic blockade imposed by Persian Gulf neighbors Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Oman, with output remaining steady at 610,000 b/d.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

IOCs Stick to Dollar Dominance in Crude Oil Transactions with Modular Refineries

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Crude Oil - Investors King

International Oil Companies (IOCs) are standing firm on their stance regarding the currency denomination for crude oil transactions with modular refineries.

Despite earlier indications suggesting a potential shift towards naira payments, IOCs have asserted their preference for dollar dominance in these transactions.

The decision, communicated during a meeting involving indigenous modular refineries and crude oil producers, shows the complex dynamics shaping Nigeria’s energy landscape.

While the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) had previously hinted at the possibility of allowing indigenous refineries to purchase crude oil in either naira or dollars, IOCs have maintained a firm stance favoring the latter.

Under this framework, modular refineries would be required to pay 80% of the crude oil purchase amount in US dollars, with the remaining 20% to be settled in naira.

This arrangement, although subject to ongoing discussions, signals a significant departure from initial expectations of a more balanced currency allocation.

Representatives from the Crude Oil Refinery Owners Association of Nigeria (CORAN) said the decision was not unilaterally imposed but rather reached through deliberations with relevant stakeholders, including the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).

While there were initial hopes of broader flexibility in currency options, the dominant position of IOCs has steered discussions towards a more dollar-centric model.

Despite reservations expressed by some participants, including modular refinery operators, the consensus appears to lean towards accommodating the preferences of major crude oil suppliers.

The development underscores the intricate negotiations and power dynamics shaping Nigeria’s energy sector, with implications for both domestic and international stakeholders.

As discussions continue, attention remains focused on how this decision will impact the operations and financial viability of modular refineries in Nigeria’s evolving oil landscape.

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Energy

Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery Overtakes European Giants in Capacity, Bloomberg Reports

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Aliko Dangote - Investors King

The Dangote Refinery has surpassed some of Europe’s largest refineries in terms of capacity, according to a recent report by Bloomberg.

The $20 billion Dangote refinery, located in Lagos, boasts a refining capacity of 650,000 barrels of petroleum products per day, positioning it as a formidable player in the global refining industry.

Bloomberg’s data highlighted that the Dangote refinery’s capacity exceeds that of Shell’s Pernis refinery in the Netherlands by over 246,000 barrels per day. Making Dangote’s facility a significant contender in the refining industry.

The report also underscored the scale of Dangote’s refinery compared to other prominent European refineries.

For instance, the TotalEnergies Antwerp refining facility in Belgium can refine 338,000 barrels per day, while the GOI Energy ISAB refinery in Italy was built with a refining capacity of 360,000 barrels per day.

Describing the Dangote refinery as a ‘game changer,’ Bloomberg emphasized its strategic advantage of leveraging cheaper U.S. oil imports for a substantial portion of its feedstock.

Analysts anticipate that the refinery’s operations will have a transformative impact on Nigeria’s fuel market and the broader region.

The refinery has already commenced shipping products in recent weeks while preparing to ramp up petrol output.

Analysts predict that Dangote’s refinery will influence Atlantic Basin gasoline markets and significantly alter the dynamics of the petroleum trade in West Africa.

Reuters recently reported that the Dangote refinery has the potential to disrupt the decades-long petrol trade from Europe to Africa, worth an estimated $17 billion annually.

With a configured capacity to produce up to 53 million liters of petrol per day, the refinery is poised to meet a significant portion of Nigeria’s fuel demand and reduce the country’s dependence on imported petroleum products.

Aliko Dangote, Africa’s richest man and the visionary behind the refinery, has demonstrated his commitment to revolutionizing Nigeria’s energy landscape. As the Dangote refinery continues to scale up its operations, it is poised to not only bolster Nigeria’s energy security but also emerge as a key player in the global refining industry.

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Crude Oil

Brent Crude Hits $88.42, WTI Climbs to $83.36 on Dollar Index Dip

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Brent crude oil - Investors King

Oil prices surged as Brent crude oil appreciated to $88.42 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed to $83.36 a barrel.

The uptick in prices comes as the U.S. dollar index dipped to its lowest level in over a week, prompting investors to shift their focus from geopolitical tensions to global economic conditions.

The weakening of the U.S. dollar, a key factor influencing oil prices, provided a boost to dollar-denominated commodities like oil. As the dollar index fell, demand for oil from investors holding other currencies increased, leading to the rise in prices.

Investors also found support in euro zone data indicating a robust expansion in business activity, with April witnessing the fastest pace of growth in nearly a year.

Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, noted that the market had been under pressure due to sluggish growth in the euro zone, making any signs of improvement supportive for oil prices.

Market participants are increasingly looking beyond geopolitical tensions and focusing on economic indicators and supply-and-demand dynamics.

Despite initial concerns regarding tensions between Israel and Iran and uncertainties surrounding China’s economic performance, the market sentiment remained optimistic, buoyed by expectations of steady oil demand.

Analysts anticipate the release of key economic data later in the week, including U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) figures and March’s personal consumption expenditures, which serve as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.

These data points are expected to provide further insights into the health of the economy and potentially impact oil prices.

Also, anticipation builds around the release of U.S. crude oil inventory data by the Energy Information Administration, scheduled for Wednesday.

Preliminary reports suggest an increase in crude oil inventories alongside a decrease in refined product stockpiles, reflecting ongoing dynamics in the oil market.

As oil prices continue their upward trajectory, investors remain vigilant, monitoring economic indicators and geopolitical developments for further cues on the future direction of the market.

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