Connect with us

Economy

Diversify Revenue Base to Avert Debt Crisis

Published

on

Trade - Investors King
  • Diversify Revenue Base to Avert Debt Crisis

The federal government has been advised to further diversify the country’s revenue base or start reducing the level of its debt by rapidly selling some national assets, in order to avert a debt crisis in the medium term.

Analysts at Afrinvest West Africa Limited gave the advice in a report. However, they stressed that they do not expect a debt crisis in the near term.

Since the start of a prolonged global oil price drop in the second half of 2014, the Nigerian economy has recorded a significant downturn in performance as plummeting government revenues and the resultant FX crisis dragged the economy into its first recession in 25 years.

The Debt Management Office (DMO) recently revealed that Nigeria’s total debt stock increased to N19.15 trillion at the end of first quarter 2017, from the N17.36 trillion at the end of last year. The federal government also raised the sum of $300million through the issuance of diaspora bond recently. Beside the diaspora bond, the DMO had disclosed that arrangement has been concluded for the issuance of the first sovereign sukuk, otherwise known as Islamic Bond or non-interest bond which closed at the end of last month -N100billion to fund road projects. Also, in line with the government’s borrowing plan, there is an outstanding issue of a US$64 million Green Bond.

Multilateral loans were sought from the AFDB (US$646.6million) in addition to bi-lateral loans from the China EXIM Bank, France AFD and Japan JICA. Following improvements in domestic investment landscape at the turn of the year, Nigeria returned to the International capital market after a three-year hiatus, successfully raising US$1.5 billion via Eurobonds this year.

On the domestic front, the DMO has continued with its monthly bond auctions and took it a step further by introducing atypical bonds such as the Savings Bond.

But, Afrinvest in the report pointed out that the country’s 2017 budget projected another record expenditure year, with fiscal deficit estimated at N2.4 trillion – domestic borrowing accounting for 53 per cent (N1.3trillion) of the total while foreign borrowing was projected at N1.1 trillion.

“The rising debt profile is not surprising given the widening budget deficit and large depreciation of the naira; however, the cost of servicing the mounting obligations took up more than 60 per cent of revenue in the first half of 2016 and has become a major source of concern on debt sustainability.

“The major argument for increased deficit spending is that the economy is underleveraged with a debt to GDP ratio of 20 per cent but also hard to ignore is the offsetting low non-oil revenue to GDP ratio. Nigeria’s Tax/GDP ratio is six per cent, which is relatively low when compared to Sub-Saharan Africa peers – South Africa (26.2%) and Kenya (15.4%),” the report added.

It noted that the nation’s tax collection and administration system was still deemed inefficient with multiple tax system and a high tax evasion and avoidance rate. According to the report, despite the recent drive to increase tax revenue, not much has changed in terms of actual results.

In fact, federally collected Non-oil revenue fell 4.4 per cent in 2016 to N3 trillion.

“To their credit, fiscal authorities have doubled down on tax reforms including the recently launched Voluntary Asset and Income Declaration Scheme (VAIDS) which grants taxpayers a time-limited opportunity to regularise their tax status without penalty.

“However, with the economy challenged, the odds of significantly boosting tax revenue in the near term is slim and we expect budget deficits to remain high for the next two to three years. What does this imply for medium term debt sustainability? Our opinion on this is a bit nuanced. The structure of Nigeria’s public debt is heavily tilted towards the domestic market (up to 77.9% of aggregate debt) and this easier to deal with in the event of a credit crisis.

“Foreign debt obligations are also mostly multilateral and bilateral in nature (78.0% of total foreign debts) which are typically long tenured and granted at concessionary rate. Thus, we do not expect a debt crisis in the near term but policymakers will need to further diversify revenue base or start deleveraging to avert one in the medium term,” they added.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

Continue Reading
Comments

Economy

Nigeria’s N3.3tn Power Sector Rescue Package Unveiled

Published

on

power project

President Bola Tinubu has given the green light for a comprehensive N3.3 trillion rescue package.

This ambitious initiative seeks to tackle the country’s mounting power sector debts, which have long hindered the efficiency and reliability of electricity supply across the nation.

The unveiling of this rescue package represents a pivotal moment in Nigeria’s quest for a sustainable energy future. With power outages being a recurring nightmare for both businesses and households, the need for decisive action has never been more urgent.

At the heart of the rescue package are measures aimed at settling the staggering debts accumulated within the power sector. President Tinubu has approved a phased approach to debt repayment, encompassing cash injections and promissory notes.

This strategic allocation of funds aims to provide immediate relief to power-generating companies (Gencos) and gas suppliers, while also ensuring long-term financial stability within the sector.

Chief Adebayo Adelabu, the Minister of Power, revealed details of the rescue package at the 8th Africa Energy Marketplace held in Abuja.

Speaking at the event themed, “Towards Nigeria’s Sustainable Energy Future,” Adelabu emphasized the government’s commitment to eliminating bottlenecks and fostering policy coherence within the power sector.

One of the key highlights of the rescue package is the allocation of funds from the Gas Stabilisation Fund to settle outstanding debts owed to gas suppliers.

This critical step not only addresses the immediate liquidity concerns of gas companies but also paves the way for enhanced cooperation between gas suppliers and power generators.

Furthermore, the rescue package includes provisions for addressing the legacy debts owed to power-generating companies.

By utilizing future royalties and income streams from the gas sub-sector, the government aims to provide a sustainable solution that incentivizes investment in power generation capacity.

The announcement of the N3.3 trillion rescue package comes amidst ongoing efforts to revitalize Nigeria’s power sector.

Recent initiatives, including tariff adjustments and regulatory reforms, underscore the government’s determination to overcome longstanding challenges and enhance the sector’s effectiveness.

However, challenges persist, as highlighted by Barth Nnaji, a former Minister of Power, who emphasized the need for a robust transmission network to support increased power generation.

Nnaji’s advocacy for a super grid underscores the importance of infrastructure development in ensuring the reliability and stability of Nigeria’s power supply.

In light of these developments, stakeholders have welcomed the unveiling of the N3.3 trillion rescue package as a decisive step towards transforming Nigeria’s power sector.

Continue Reading

Economy

Nigeria’s Inflation Climbs to 28-Year High at 33.69% in April

Published

on

Nigeria's Inflation Rate - Investors King

Nigeria is grappling with soaring inflation as data from the statistics agency revealed that the country’s headline inflation surged to a new 28-year high in April.

The consumer price index, which measures the inflation rate, rose to 33.69% year-on-year, up from 33.20% in March.

This surge in inflation comes amid a series of economic challenges, including subsidy cuts on petrol and electricity and twice devaluing the local naira currency by the administration of President Bola Tinubu.

The sharp rise in inflation has been a pressing concern for policymakers, leading the central bank to take measures to address the growing price pressures.

The central bank has raised interest rates twice this year, including its largest hike in around 17 years, in an attempt to contain inflationary pressures.

Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria has indicated that interest rates will remain high for as long as necessary to bring down inflation.

The bank is set to hold another rate-setting meeting next week to review its policy stance.

A report by the National Bureau of Statistics highlighted that the food and non-alcoholic beverages category continued to be the biggest contributor to inflation in April.

Food inflation, which accounts for the bulk of the inflation basket, rose to 40.53% in annual terms, up from 40.01% in March.

In response to the economic challenges posed by soaring inflation, President Tinubu’s administration has announced a salary hike of up to 35% for civil servants to ease the pressure on government workers.

Also, to support vulnerable households, the government has restarted a direct cash transfer program and distributed at least 42,000 tons of grains such as corn and millet.

The rising inflation rate presents significant challenges for Nigeria’s economy, impacting the purchasing power of consumers and adding strains to household budgets.

As the government continues to grapple with inflationary pressures, policymakers are faced with the task of implementing measures to stabilize prices and mitigate the adverse effects on the economy and livelihoods of citizens.

Continue Reading

Economy

FG Acknowledges Labour’s Protest, Assures Continued Dialogue

Published

on

Power - Investors King

The Federal Government through the Ministry of Power has acknowledged the organised Labour request for a reduction in electric tariff.

The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) and Trade Union Congress (TUC) had picketed offices of the National Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) and Distribution Companies nationwide over the hike in electricity tariff.

The unions had described the upward review, demanding outright cancellation.

Addressing State House correspondents after the Federal Executive Council (FEC) meeting on Tuesday, Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, said labour had the right to protest.

“We cannot stop them from organizing peaceful protest or laying down their demands. Let me make that clear. President Bola Tinubu’s administration is also a listening government.”

“We have heard their demands, we’re going to look at it, we’ll make further engagements and I believe we’re going to reach a peaceful resolution with the labor because no government can succeed without the cooperation, collaboration and partnership with the Labour unions. So we welcome the peaceful protest and I’m happy that it was not a violent protest. They’ve made their positions known and government has taken in their demands and we’re looking at it.

“But one thing that I want to state here is from the statistics of those affected by the hike in tariff, the people on the road yesterday, who embarked on the peaceful protests, more than 95% of them are not affected by the increase in the tariff of electricity. They still enjoy almost 70% government subsidy in the tariff they pay because the average costs of generating, transmitting and distributing electricity is not less than N180 today.

“A lot of them are paying below N60 so they still enjoy government’s subsidy. So when they say we should reverse the recently increased tariff, sincerely it’s not affecting them. That’s one position.

“My appeal again is that they should please not derail or distract our transformation plan for the industry. We have a clearly documented reform roadmap to take us to our desired destination, where we’re going to have reliable, functional, cost-effective and affordable electricity in Nigeria. It cannot be achieved overnight because this is a decay of almost 60 years, which we are trying to correct.”

He said there was the need for sacrifice from everybody, “from the government’s side, from the people’s side, from the private sector side. So we must bear this sacrifice for us to have a permanent gain”.

“I don’t want us to go back to the situation we were in February and March, where we had very low generation. We all felt the impact of this whereby electricity supply was very low and every household, every company, every institution, felt it. From the little reform that we’ve embarked upon since the beginning of April, we have seen the impact that electricity has improved and it can only get better.”

Continue Reading
Advertisement




Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertisement

Trending