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Oramah: Intra -African Trade Will Rise to $400bn if Hindrances are Removed

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Afreximbank - Investors King
  • Intra -African Trade Will Rise to $400bn if Hindrances are Removed

Achieving economic integration among African countries which will give way to the continent’s economic growth is capable of growing the size of intra-African trade from its current level of $170billion to $400billion, if impediments are removed, president and Chairman, African Import Export (AFREXIM) Bank, Dr. Benedict Oramah has said.

Oramah, who stated this at the 24 annual general meeting of the bank held in Kigali, Rwanda, identified the growth factors as enabling environment such as political will, market knowledge, conducive environment and right policies combined with adequate financial resources.

He said there is urgent need to address the existing problem of trading information gap among the member countries.

Speaking on the topic, ‘Expanding African Trade in a World of Rising Protectionis’, Oramah noted that the rise of anti-globalisation, protectionism and nationalism has got direct attack on capital mobility, from advanced to developing countries, despite the fact that this is the hallmark of globalisation.

He observed that advanced countries, who have been the apostles of globalisation are now building anti trade walls against developing countries.

“During the last one and half decades, foreign direct investment flows into developing economies grew by more than 200per cent from $230billion in 2001 to over $760 billion in 2015.

“The capital flow was accompanied by movement of technology and jobs. Industrial and manufacturing activities moved from Europe and North America to Asia where return to capital was highest. As Asian developing economies narrowed their technological gap and became more competitive, accumulating trade surpluses, many advanced economies had resorted to subtle “anti-market” policies to contain rising external imbalances,” he observed.

Oramah, quoted the World Trade Organisation (WTO) as saying: “The stock of trade restrictive measures increased from 424 in 2010 to 2,238 measures in 2016; between October 2015 and October 2016, 182 new trade-restrictive measures were put in place mostly by advanced economies; G20 countries introduced an average of 19 trade-restrictive measures per month during 2016.”

He however expressed optimism that despite these, Africa as a continent, has all the ingredients required for a big economic push and to accelerate its trade, adding that relative low intra-African trade provides room for growth in a context of contraction of global trade and creeping protectionism.

According to him, Political will, market knowledge, conducive environment and right policies combined with adequate financial resources are the ingredients that will put the continent on the path to industrial transformation and a quantum leap in intra-African trade.

He said due to lack of knowledge of the African continent and limited access to trade information among African businesses, a number of African countries are spending their foreign exchange in importing what they produce at home from abroad.

Giving analysis of this, the AFREXIM Bank boss said:

“Australia, is the main source of tanned hides and skins for Southern Africa, while Zambia, globally exports this same input at a lower cost and its exports are higher than South Africa’s imports.

Again he said: “South Africa imports leather further prepared after tanning from India at a price which is double the price at which Ethiopia exports the input to the world.

“Mauritius and Nigeria, globally import leather products from Italy and Belgium at a much higher costs as compared to what South Africa and Botswana globally exports”.

Highlighting some of the potential of the continent, Oramah said: “Africa has diverse natural resources and abundant labour that can form the foundation for export manufacturing and industrial take-off. Africa has a pan African trade finance bank, the Afreximbank that has the capacity to de-risk the trade and financial flows within the continent.”

A number of African champions have emerged creating manufacturing capacities and fostering the emergence of regional and continental supply chains. For instance: El-Sewedy Electric, an Egyptian entity, has become one of the largest suppliers of electricity generation and distribution equipment and technologies in Africa.

The Dangote Group has cement plants in about 14 African countries and is now the largest supplier of cement in Africa. The Group will by 2018 open one of the largest refineries in the world. The refinery, with capacity of about 650,000 bpd, can supply the total refining requirements of West Africa.

ShopRite, the retail giant from South Africa now operates in not less than 18 African countries; MTN, an African telecom giant, now operates in 22 countries”, he enumerated.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

Dangote Mega Refinery in Nigeria Seeks Millions of Barrels of US Crude Amid Output Challenges

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Dangote Refinery

The Dangote Mega Refinery, situated near Lagos, Nigeria, is embarking on an ambitious plan to procure millions of barrels of US crude over the next year.

The refinery, established by Aliko Dangote, Africa’s wealthiest individual, has issued a term tender for the purchase of 2 million barrels a month of West Texas Intermediate Midland crude for a duration of 12 months, commencing in July.

This development revealed through a document obtained by Bloomberg, represents a shift in strategy for the refinery, which has opted for US oil imports due to constraints in the availability and reliability of Nigerian crude.

Elitsa Georgieva, Executive Director at Citac, an energy consultancy specializing in the African downstream sector, emphasized the allure of US crude for Dangote’s refinery.

Georgieva highlighted the challenges associated with sourcing Nigerian crude, including insufficient supply, unreliability, and sometimes unavailability.

In contrast, US WTI offers reliability, availability, and competitive pricing, making it an attractive option for Dangote.

Nigeria’s struggles to meet its OPEC+ quota and sustain its crude production capacity have been ongoing for at least a year.

Despite an estimated production capacity of 2.6 million barrels a day, the country only managed to pump about 1.45 million barrels a day of crude and liquids in April.

Factors contributing to this decline include crude theft, aging oil pipelines, low investment, and divestments by oil majors operating in Nigeria.

To address the challenge of local supply for the Dangote refinery, Nigeria’s upstream regulators have proposed new draft rules compelling oil producers to prioritize selling crude to domestic refineries.

This regulatory move aims to ensure sufficient local supply to support the operations of the 650,000 barrel-a-day Dangote refinery.

Operating at about half capacity presently, the Dangote refinery has capitalized on the opportunity to secure cheaper US oil imports to fulfill up to a third of its feedstock requirements.

Since the beginning of the year, the refinery has been receiving monthly shipments of about 2 million barrels of WTI Midland from the United States.

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Oil Prices Hold Steady as U.S. Demand Signals Strengthening

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Oil prices maintained a steady stance in the global market as signals of strengthening demand in the United States provided support amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, holds at $82.79 per barrel, a marginal increase of 4 cents or 0.05%.

Similarly, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude saw a slight uptick of 4 cents to $78.67 per barrel.

The stability in oil prices came in the wake of favorable data indicating a potential surge in demand from the U.S. market.

An analysis by MUFG analysts Ehsan Khoman and Soojin Kim pointed to a broader risk-on sentiment spurred by signs of receding inflationary pressures in the U.S., suggesting the possibility of a more accommodative monetary policy by the Federal Reserve.

This prospect could alleviate the strength of the dollar and render oil more affordable for holders of other currencies, consequently bolstering demand.

Despite a brief dip on Wednesday, when Brent crude touched an intra-day low of $81.05 per barrel, the commodity rebounded, indicating underlying market resilience.

This bounce-back was attributed to a notable decline in U.S. crude oil inventories, gasoline, and distillates.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a reduction of 2.5 million barrels in crude inventories to 457 million barrels for the week ending May 10, surpassing analysts’ consensus forecast of 543,000 barrels.

John Evans, an analyst at PVM, underscored the significance of increased refinery activity, which contributed to the decline in inventories and hinted at heightened demand.

This development sparked a turnaround in price dynamics, with earlier losses being nullified by a surge in buying activity that wiped out all declines.

Moreover, U.S. consumer price data for April revealed a less-than-expected increase, aligning with market expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September.

The prospect of monetary easing further buoyed market sentiment, contributing to the stability of oil prices.

However, amidst these market dynamics, geopolitical tensions persisted in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Palestinian factions. Israeli military operations in Gaza remained ongoing, with ceasefire negotiations reaching a stalemate mediated by Qatar and Egypt.

The situation underscored the potential for geopolitical flare-ups to impact oil market sentiment.

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Shell’s Bonga Field Hits Record High Production of 138,000 Barrels per Day in 2023

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oil field

Shell Nigeria Exploration and Production Company Limited (SNEPCo) has achieved a significant milestone as its Bonga field, Nigeria’s first deep-water development, hit a record high production of 138,000 barrels per day in 2023.

This represents a substantial increase when compared to 101,000 barrels per day produced in the previous year.

The improvement in production is attributed to various factors, including the drilling of new wells, reservoir optimization, enhanced facility management, and overall asset management strategies.

Elohor Aiboni, Managing Director of SNEPCo, expressed pride in Bonga’s performance, stating that the increased production underscores the commitment of the company’s staff and its continuous efforts to enhance production processes and maintenance.

Aiboni also acknowledged the support of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and SNEPCo’s co-venture partners, including TotalEnergies Nigeria Limited, Nigerian Agip Exploration, and Esso Exploration and Production Nigeria Limited.

The Bonga field, which commenced production in November 2005, operates through the Bonga Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) vessel, with a capacity of 225,000 barrels per day.

Located 120 kilometers offshore, the FPSO has been a key contributor to Nigeria’s oil production since its inception.

Last year, the Bonga FPSO reached a significant milestone by exporting its 1-billionth barrel of oil, further cementing its position as a vital asset in Nigeria’s oil and gas sector.

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