Connect with us

Economy

FG’s Non-oil Revenue Projection Unrealistic

Published

on

budget
  • FG’s Non-oil Revenue Projection Unrealistic

The federal government’s non-oil revenue projections in the 2017 budget are unrealistic, when viewed in the context of past budgets, a report by the Time Economics, a research-focused firm has stated.

The Time Economics stated this in its Mid-Year Report obtained on Monday.

It pointed out that the bulk of non-oil revenue in this year’s budget was expected to come from Value Added Tax (VAT), Companies Income Tax (CIT) and Customs and Excise Duties, revenue sources which underperformed by an average of 26 per cent between 2011 and 2015.

The 2017 Appropriation Bill was signed into law on June 12th, 2017 a month after it was passed by the National Assembly, and over six months after the budget was presented to lawmakers by the President Muhammadu Buhari. The budgeted expenditure in the final version of the bill differed from that in the proposed budget by N143 billion, an increased from N7.298 trillion to N7.441 trillion.

The budget was based on a benchmark crude oil price of $44.5 per barrel, oil production of 2.2 mbpd and an average exchange rate of N305/USD. Revenue is expected to be N5.08 trillion of which N1.999 trillion will come from oil, N1.373 trillion from CIT, VAT, Customs and Excise Duties and Federation Account Levies, N807.57 billion from Independent Revenues, N565.1 billion from Recoveries and N210.9 billion from other revenue sources such as mining.

But the report stressed that in the past, the government’s revenue projections had been quite optimistic; actual federal government revenues were an average of 17 per cent below projected revenue between 2011 and 2015.

“In 2016, total half year revenues from these sources were 54 per cent below projections. Although the government reduced its expected revenue from these sources from N1.392 trillion to N1.373 trillion, its projection is still quite unrealistic.

“These revenue sources are dependent on the performance of the economy, which is projected to grow by only one per cent from its 2016 level.

Therefore, it is extremely unlikely that any increase in the actual revenues realised in 2017 – even after accounting for the growth in the economy and a higher level of tax compliance – will be enough to prevent substantial underperformance in non-oil revenue.”

At the end of 2015, GDP per capita was approximately $1900, using an exchange rate of N197/USD and a population of 182.2 million (World Bank). Full year GDP growth for 2016 was -1.58 per cent, and if assumed that Nigeria’s population grew by 2.5 per cent, and an exchange rate of N305/USD, GDP per capita fell to $1177. This decline in income over a single year was quite substantial but it was even worse when compared to GDP per capita in 2014 which was approximately $2200, a 47 per cent decline in just two years, the report added.

“If the economy grows by one per cent in 2017, and the exchange rate is unchanged at N305/USD, GDP per capita falls further to $1160, again assuming 2.5 per cent population growth. Given the significant reduction in income for the average Nigerian since 2014, and the high rate of population growth, GDP growth will have to be above 5% for a long time for Nigerians to have any chance of regaining their lost income,” it stated.

Most analysts and observers expect growth in the Nigerian economy to be about one per cent in 2017 based on expectations of higher oil prices and production. The major reasons for the recession in 2016 were lower oil production due to an insurgency in the Niger Delta region, the fall in global oil prices, and a low level of budget implementation by the government. Higher oil prices in 2017 on the back of an OPEC oil output cut agreement and higher oil production as the government begins to find a solution to the insurgency problem should be enough to see the economy return to growth in 2017.

However, the contraction of the economy in 2016 combined with population growth and the depreciation of the Naira means that the average Nigerian’s 2017 income in Dollar terms will not return to the level of 2014 /15 any time soon, even with the anticipated one per cent growth, the report argued.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

Continue Reading
Comments

Economy

FG Acknowledges Labour’s Protest, Assures Continued Dialogue

Published

on

Power - Investors King

The Federal Government through the Ministry of Power has acknowledged the organised Labour request for a reduction in electric tariff.

The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) and Trade Union Congress (TUC) had picketed offices of the National Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) and Distribution Companies nationwide over the hike in electricity tariff.

The unions had described the upward review, demanding outright cancellation.

Addressing State House correspondents after the Federal Executive Council (FEC) meeting on Tuesday, Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, said labour had the right to protest.

“We cannot stop them from organizing peaceful protest or laying down their demands. Let me make that clear. President Bola Tinubu’s administration is also a listening government.”

“We have heard their demands, we’re going to look at it, we’ll make further engagements and I believe we’re going to reach a peaceful resolution with the labor because no government can succeed without the cooperation, collaboration and partnership with the Labour unions. So we welcome the peaceful protest and I’m happy that it was not a violent protest. They’ve made their positions known and government has taken in their demands and we’re looking at it.

“But one thing that I want to state here is from the statistics of those affected by the hike in tariff, the people on the road yesterday, who embarked on the peaceful protests, more than 95% of them are not affected by the increase in the tariff of electricity. They still enjoy almost 70% government subsidy in the tariff they pay because the average costs of generating, transmitting and distributing electricity is not less than N180 today.

“A lot of them are paying below N60 so they still enjoy government’s subsidy. So when they say we should reverse the recently increased tariff, sincerely it’s not affecting them. That’s one position.

“My appeal again is that they should please not derail or distract our transformation plan for the industry. We have a clearly documented reform roadmap to take us to our desired destination, where we’re going to have reliable, functional, cost-effective and affordable electricity in Nigeria. It cannot be achieved overnight because this is a decay of almost 60 years, which we are trying to correct.”

He said there was the need for sacrifice from everybody, “from the government’s side, from the people’s side, from the private sector side. So we must bear this sacrifice for us to have a permanent gain”.

“I don’t want us to go back to the situation we were in February and March, where we had very low generation. We all felt the impact of this whereby electricity supply was very low and every household, every company, every institution, felt it. From the little reform that we’ve embarked upon since the beginning of April, we have seen the impact that electricity has improved and it can only get better.”

Continue Reading

Economy

Nigeria, China Collaborate to Bridge $18 Billion Trade Gap Through Agricultural Exports

Published

on

Institute of Chartered Shipbrokers

In a concerted effort to address the $18 billion trade deficit between Nigeria and China, both nations have embarked on a collaborative endeavor aimed at bolstering agricultural exports from Nigeria to China.

This strategic partnership, heralded as a landmark initiative in bilateral trade relations, seeks to narrow the trade gap and foster more balanced economic exchanges between the two countries.

The Executive Director of the Nigerian Export Promotion Council (NEPC), Nonye Ayeni, revealed this collaboration during a joint meeting between the Council and the Department of Commerce of Hunan province, China, held in Abuja on Monday.

Addressing the trade imbalance, Ayeni said collaborative efforts will help close the gap and stimulate more equitable trade relations between the two nations.

With Nigeria importing approximately $20.4 billion worth of goods from China, while its exports to China stood at around $2 billion, representing a $18 billion in trade deficit.

This significant imbalance has prompted officials from both countries to strategize on how to rebalance trade dynamics and promote mutually beneficial economic exchanges.

The collaborative effort between Nigeria and China focuses on leveraging the vast potential of Nigeria’s agricultural sector to expand export opportunities to the Chinese market.

Ayeni highlighted Nigeria’s abundant supply of over 1,000 exportable products, emphasizing the need to identify and promote the top 20 products with high demand in global markets, particularly in China.

“We have over 1,000 products in large quantities, and we expect that the collaboration will help us improve. The NEPC is focused on a 12-18 month target, focusing on the top 20 products based on global demand in the markets in which China is a top destination,” Ayeni explained, outlining the strategic objectives of the collaboration.

The initiative not only aims to reduce the trade deficit but also seeks to capitalize on China’s growing appetite for agricultural products. Nigeria, with its diverse agricultural landscape, sees an opportunity to expand its export market and capitalize on China’s increasing demand for agricultural imports.

Continue Reading

Economy

IMF Urges Nigeria to End Fuel and Electricity Subsidies

Published

on

IMF global - Investors King

In a recent report titled “Nigeria: 2024 Article IV Consultation,” the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has advised the Nigerian government to terminate all forms of fuel and electricity subsidies, arguing that they predominantly benefit the wealthy rather than the intended vulnerable population.

The IMF’s recommendation comes amidst Nigeria’s struggle with record-high inflation and economic challenges exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic.

The report highlights the inefficiency and ineffectiveness of subsidies, noting that they are costly and poorly targeted.

According to the IMF, higher-income groups tend to benefit more from these subsidies, resulting in a misallocation of resources. With pump prices and electricity tariffs currently below cost-recovery levels, subsidy costs are projected to increase significantly, reaching up to three percent of the gross domestic product (GDP) in 2024.

The IMF suggests that once Nigeria’s social protection schemes are enhanced and inflation is brought under control, subsidies should be phased out.

The government’s social intervention scheme, developed with support from the World Bank, aims to provide targeted support to vulnerable households, potentially benefiting around 15 million households or 60 million Nigerians.

However, concerns persist regarding the removal of subsidies, particularly in light of the recent announcement of an increase in electricity tariffs by the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC).

While the government has taken steps to reduce subsidies, including the removal of the costly petrol subsidy, there are lingering challenges in fully implementing these reforms.

Nigeria’s fiscal deficit is projected to be higher than anticipated, according to the IMF staff’s analysis.

The persistence of fuel and electricity subsidies is expected to contribute to this fiscal imbalance, along with lower oil and gas revenue projections and higher interest costs.

Continue Reading
Advertisement




Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertisement

Trending