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Forex Weekly Outlook June 19-23

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  • Forex Weekly Outlook June 19-23

Despite the weak job data and inflation rate, the Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points to 1.25 percent. Creating further uncertainty amid political investigations in the U.S. and weak global growth.

Even though, the Fed committee was optimistic about pricing and job creation, the foreign exchange market responded differently to the U.S. dollar after retail sales figure showed another 0.3 percent decline. Suggesting consumers are wary of the political tension and uncertainty.

In the UK, the inflation rate jumped 2.9 percent, while retail sales declined 1.2 percent in May. The broad decline was as a result of drop in earnings and rising consumer prices that eroded consumers’ buying power. Plunging the pounds against majors.

CADJPY

The Canadian dollar gained against most of its counterpart last week after Bank of Canada signals that higher rate is possible later in the year with solid job data released two weeks ago and surge in oil prices. This bolstered the attractiveness of the loonie and the odds of a rate hike to 90 percent.

While on the other hand, the Japanese yen declined following the decision of Haruhiko Kuroda led Bank of Japan to maintain current stimulus level without an exit strategy, citing weak inflation, lacklustre wage and slow consumer spending.

http://investorsking.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/GBPJPYWeekly-3.png

Technically, CADJPY closed above 83.11 resistance for the first time in almost 3 months, and above 20 days moving average for the first time in almost 4 months last week. Indicating market has started pricing in potential rate hike and a series of positive economic data coming out of Canada of late.

Therefore, the pair is expected to attract enough buyers this week to boost it towards 86.36 resistance levels. Hence, I will be looking to buy this pair above the new support, 83.11 for 86.36 targets.

AUDJPY

After the Reserve Bank of Australia tightened lending rate amid fear of housing bubble. The house prices declined for the first time in 17 months and the unemployment rate improved to 5.5 percent, a 4 year low.

While, the strong labour market boost Aussie dollar’s attractiveness, the Japanese Yen dipped as explained above.

AUDJPYWeekly

Given Australian dollar the edge to gain about 200 pips last week. Accordingly, I am expecting Australia’s positive data and renewed interest to aid AUDJPY rally further this week. Therefore, this week, I will be looking to buy this pair above 84.44 levels for 86.34 targets.

EURNZD

The failure of the European Central Bank to state its exit strategy and get its inflation up, even though the economy is growing at a healthy pace has dampened its outlook and demands among investors.

However, the New Zealand dollar on the other hand, continued to attract buyers after data showed the economy expanded 0.5 percent in the first quarter and current account surplus stood New Zealand $240 million.

EURNZDWeekly

From the chart above, this pair dropped 800 pips in the past one month but last week closed below the 1.5469 support for the first time in two months. Indicating the strength of the bearish movement established a month ago.

EURNZDDaily

Again, EURNZD daily candlestick of Thursday confirmed bearish continuation by closing as a bearish pinball. Also, below the 1.5469 price levels. Therefore, this week as long as 1.5469 holds I am bearish on this pair and will be looking to sell for 1.5118 targets.

Last Week Recap

Last week, the EURUSD was 20 pips short of our 1.1117 targets. The rebound is largely due to poor economic data released on Friday as explained above. But the bearish pinball established 3 weeks ago remained valid and as long as 1.1233 resistance holds I remain bearish on this pair. This is because the US economic data is solid when assessed from on a long-term perspective and in line with Fed targets.

Forex Weekly Outlook June 19-23

Again, the Euro single currency is overpriced without substantial data to sustain current gain. Therefore, a sustained break below the ascending channel should reinforce sellers’ interest and open up 1.1019 targets in days to come.

GBPJPY

The pound gained against the Japanese Yen despite its negative economic data and political issues because the Yen was dumped by investors last week after BOJ failed to succinctly state its exit strategy and raise rates.

GBPJPYWeekly

As long as 142.42 holds, I am bearish on this pair and will be looking to add to my position.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Naira

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate Today 24th June 2024

As of June 24th, 2024, the black market rate stands at ₦1,510 per USD, reflecting ongoing fluctuations in Nigeria’s forex landscape.

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New Naira notes

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of June 24th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,510.

Recent data from Bureau De Change (BDC) reveals that buyers in the Lagos Parallel Market purchased a dollar for ₦1,480 and sold it at ₦1,470 on Monday, June 18th, 2024.

This indicates a decline in the Naira exchange rate value when compared to today’s rate.

The black market rate plays a crucial role for investors and participants, offering a real-time reflection of currency dynamics outside official or regulated exchange channels.

Monitoring these rates provides insights into the immediate value of the Naira against the dollar, guiding decision-making processes for individuals and businesses alike.

It’s important to note that while the black market offers valuable insights, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not officially recognize its existence.

The CBN advises individuals engaging in forex transactions to utilize official banking channels, emphasizing the importance of compliance with regulatory frameworks.

How much is dollar to naira today in the black market

For those navigating the currency exchange landscape, here are the latest figures for the black market exchange rate:

  • Buying Rate: ₦1,510
  • Selling Rate: ₦1,500

As economic conditions continue to evolve, staying informed about currency exchange rates empowers individuals to make informed financial decisions. While the black market provides immediate insights, adherence to regulatory guidelines ensures stability and transparency in forex transactions.

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Forex

Zimbabwe Mandates Partial Tax Payments in New Bullion-Backed Currency

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In a strategic move to reinforce its new bullion-backed currency, Zimbabwe will require businesses to pay a portion of their taxes in Zimbabwe Gold (ZiG), Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube announced on Wednesday.

The regulations, aimed at enhancing the stability and acceptance of the ZiG, are part of broader efforts to strengthen the nation’s fiscal and monetary framework.

“The Treasury is stepping up to complement the fiscal and monetary policy framework aimed at further anchoring the currency, exchange rate, and price stability,” Ncube stated in an emailed announcement.

Since 2020, Zimbabwe has allowed taxes to be settled in the currency businesses predominantly use. However, under the new system, specific ratios will dictate the portions of taxes that must be paid in ZiG and other foreign currencies, alongside those that can solely be settled in the new unit.

The ZiG, introduced on April 5, 2024, replaced the Zimbabwean dollar, which had depreciated by 80% against the US dollar in the official market earlier this year.

Backed by 2.5 tons of gold and $100 million in foreign currency reserves held by the central bank, the ZiG is part of Zimbabwe’s broader strategy to avoid the pitfalls that led to the collapse of its previous six currencies.

“The changes will add to a raft of measures aimed at ensuring the ZiG doesn’t suffer the fate of its predecessors,” Ncube stated.

The finance minister highlighted that the new tax policy is designed to foster greater stability in the ZiG’s value and ensure it becomes a cornerstone of Zimbabwe’s economy. The government hopes that by requiring businesses to transact in ZiG, it will boost demand for the currency, thereby strengthening its position in the market.

Additional measures to bolster the ZiG include urging miners to increase gold production and extending the currency crackdown to include more stringent regulations on companies. These efforts are geared toward ensuring a steady influx of gold to back the currency, thus reinforcing its value and credibility.

Economists have noted that the success of the ZiG will depend heavily on these regulatory measures and the government’s ability to maintain a stable economic environment. The ZiG’s introduction has already shown a “positive impact” on the economy, but sustained confidence in the currency will be crucial.

“Zimbabwe’s new tax policy is a bold step towards economic stability,” said John Mangudya, Governor of the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe. “By ensuring that a portion of taxes are paid in ZiG, we are creating a consistent demand for the currency, which will help maintain its value and prevent the hyperinflation that plagued our previous currencies.”

The move has received a mixed reaction from the business community. While some see it as a necessary step towards stabilizing the economy, others are concerned about the immediate impact on cash flow and the complexities of adapting to the new system.

“We understand the government’s need to stabilize the currency,” said Takura Mugaga, CEO of the Zimbabwe National Chamber of Commerce. “However, we urge the authorities to consider the implementation challenges businesses might face and provide adequate support during the transition period.”

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Naira

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate Today 18th June 2024

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of June 18th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,480.

Published

on

New Naira notes

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of June 18th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,480.

Recent data from Bureau De Change (BDC) reveals that buyers in the Lagos Parallel Market purchased a dollar for ₦1,510 and sold it at ₦1,500 on Monday, June 17th, 2024.

This indicates an improvement in the Naira exchange rate value when compared to today’s rate.

The black market rate plays a crucial role for investors and participants, offering a real-time reflection of currency dynamics outside official or regulated exchange channels.

Monitoring these rates provides insights into the immediate value of the Naira against the dollar, guiding decision-making processes for individuals and businesses alike.

It’s important to note that while the black market offers valuable insights, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not officially recognize its existence.

The CBN advises individuals engaging in forex transactions to utilize official banking channels, emphasizing the importance of compliance with regulatory frameworks.

How much is dollar to naira today in the black market

For those navigating the currency exchange landscape, here are the latest figures for the black market exchange rate:

  • Buying Rate: ₦1,480
  • Selling Rate: ₦1,470

As economic conditions continue to evolve, staying informed about currency exchange rates empowers individuals to make informed financial decisions. While the black market provides immediate insights, adherence to regulatory guidelines ensures stability and transparency in forex transactions.

Continue Reading
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