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China Considers Changing Yuan Fixing Formula to Curb Swings

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  • China Considers Changing Yuan Fixing Formula to Curb Swings

China is considering changes to the way it calculates the yuan’s daily reference rate against the dollar, a move that’s likely to reduce exchange-rate volatility while undermining efforts to increase the role of market forces in Asia’s largest economy.

Policy makers may add a “counter-cyclical factor” to the yuan’s daily fixing, according to a government statement on Friday, which confirmed an earlier report by Bloomberg News. Analysts said the change would give authorities more control over the fixing and restrain the influence of market pricing.

While a more tightly-managed currency could give China breathing room to push forward with a deleveraging campaign that’s popular among Western investors, it would mark a step back from President Xi Jinping’s 2013 pledge to give markets a central role. The central bank’s existing fixing system won international plaudits for being more market-oriented and helped the yuan win a spot in the IMF’s basket of reserve currencies.

“The counter-cyclical adjustment factor sounds like an increased role for the fixing to be nudged away from where markets would set it,” said Sean Callow, a senior currency strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. in Sydney. “The authorities’ actions give the impression that they are more worried about yuan stability than declared in their public statements.”

Propping up the yuan has been a policy priority this year as Chinese authorities try to stem capital outflows and prevent financial shocks before an important leadership reshuffle in the ruling Communist Party at the end of 2017. The stakes have increased in recent weeks after the regulatory clampdown on leverage roiled domestic bond and equity markets.

Under the new reference rate formula communicated to lenders by the People’s Bank of China this week, institutions that provide quotes for the fixing will add a counter-cyclical factor to their existing models, which take into account the previous day’s official closing price at 4:30 p.m. local time and changes in baskets of currencies, according to people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified because the matter is private. Banks are currently tweaking and testing their models and will start providing quotes using the new system soon, the people said.

China’s foreign-exchange market can be driven by irrational expectations, resulting in “unreal” supply and demand that increases the risk of overshooting, according to an official statement on Chinamoney.com, which is run by China Foreign Exchange Trade System. The counter-cyclical factor may ease “herd actions” and help guide investors to pay more attention to economic fundamentals, according to the statement.

The yuan is restricted to moves of no more than 2 percent on either side of the reference rate.

For China’s government, the existing market-based fixing system’s downside is that it makes the exchange rate more difficult to control. The yuan’s 6.5 percent slide in 2016 created a vicious circle of capital outflows and currency weakness, prompting officials to burn through more than $300 billion of foreign-exchange reserves and introduce tighter capital controls.

Authorities may see the new fixing formula as a cheaper way to stabilize the yuan. Officials have already used the reference rate to guide the currency higher in recent weeks, setting the fixing at levels that were consistently stronger than analysts predicted.

“The PBOC has been fixing with a major dose of discretion,” said Sue Trinh, head of Asia foreign-exchange strategy at RBC Capital Markets in Hong Kong. “We can consider this ’counter-cyclical adjustment factor’ as using that discretion.”

While the yuan has fluctuated in a narrow band around 6.9 per dollar for most of this year, the currency strengthened out of that trading range over the past two days amid suspected government intervention. The yuan gained 0.1 percent to 6.8622 per dollar as of 5:57 p.m. local time Friday, heading for the biggest two-day advance since late March.

By taking steps to scale back the market’s role in the fixing formula, authorities may undermine efforts to make the currency more freely traded, according to Tim Condon, head of Asia research at ING Groep NV in Singapore.

“If the yuan endgame is a free float like the other major currencies, refining the PBOC fixing mechanism is a retrograde step,” he said.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Continue to Slide: Drops Over 1% Amid Surging U.S. Stockpiles

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Amidst growing concerns over surging U.S. stockpiles and indications of static output policies from major oil-producing nations, oil prices declined for a second consecutive day by 1% on Wednesday.

Brent crude oil, against which the Nigerian oil price is measured, shed 97 cents or 1.12% to $85.28 per barrel.

Similarly, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slumped by 93 cents or a 1.14% fall to close at $80.69.

The recent downtrend in oil prices comes after they reached their highest level since October last week.

However, ongoing concerns regarding burgeoning U.S. crude inventories and uncertainties surrounding potential inaction by the OPEC+ group in their forthcoming technical meeting have exacerbated the downward momentum.

Market analysts attribute the decline to expectations of minimal adjustments to oil output policies by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, known collectively as OPEC+, until a full ministerial meeting scheduled for June.

In addition to concerns about excess supply, the market’s attention is also focused on the impending release of official government data on U.S. crude inventories, scheduled for Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. EDT (1430 GMT).

Analysts are keenly observing OPEC members for any signals of deviation from their production quotas, suggesting further volatility may lie ahead in the oil market.

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Energy

Nigeria Targets $5bn Investments in Oil and Gas Sector, Says Government

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Crude Oil - Investors King

Nigeria is setting its sights on attracting $5 billion worth of investments in its oil and gas sector, according to statements made by government officials during an oil and gas sector retreat in Abuja.

During the retreat organized by the Federal Ministry of Petroleum Resources, Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri, explained the importance of ramping up crude oil production and creating an environment conducive to attracting investments.

He highlighted the need to work closely with agencies like the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) to achieve these goals.

Lokpobiri acknowledged the challenges posed by issues such as insecurity and pipeline vandalism but expressed confidence in the government’s ability to tackle them effectively.

He stressed the necessity of a globally competitive regulatory framework to encourage investment in the sector.

The minister’s remarks were echoed by Mele Kyari, the Group Chief Executive Officer of NNPCL, who spoke at the 2024 Strategic Women in Energy, Oil, and Gas Leadership Summit.

Kyari stressed the critical role of energy in driving economic growth and development and explained that Nigeria still faces challenges in providing stable electricity to its citizens.

Kyari outlined NNPCL’s vision for the future, which includes increasing crude oil production, expanding refining capacity, and growing the company’s retail network.

He highlighted the importance of leveraging Nigeria’s vast gas resources and optimizing dividend payouts to shareholders.

Overall, the government’s commitment to attracting $5 billion in investments reflects its determination to revitalize the oil and gas sector and drive economic growth in Nigeria.

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Commodities

Palm Oil Rebounds on Upbeat Malaysian Exports Amid Indonesian Supply Concerns

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Palm Oil - Investors King

Palm oil prices rebounded from a two-day decline on reports that Malaysian exports will be robust this month despite concerns over potential supply disruptions from Indonesia, the world’s largest palm oil exporter.

The market saw a significant surge as Malaysian export figures for the current month painted a promising picture.

Senior trader David Ng from IcebergX Sdn. in Kuala Lumpur attributed the morning’s gains to Malaysia’s strong export performance, with shipments climbing by a notable 14% during March 1-25 compared to the previous month.

Increased demand from key regions like Africa, India, and the Middle East contributed to this impressive growth, as reported by Intertek Testing Services.

However, amidst this positivity, investors are closely monitoring developments in Indonesia. The Indonesian government’s contemplation of revising its domestic market obligation policy, potentially linking it to production rather than exports, has stirred market concerns.

Edy Priyono, a deputy at the presidential staff office in Jakarta, indicated that this proposed shift aims to mitigate vulnerability to fluctuations in export demand.

Yet, it could potentially constrain supply availability from Indonesia in the future to stabilize domestic prices.

This uncertainty surrounding Indonesian policies has added a layer of complexity to palm oil market dynamics, prompting investors to react cautiously despite Malaysia’s promising export performance.

The prospect of Indonesian supply disruptions underscores the delicacy of global palm oil supply chains and their susceptibility to geopolitical and regulatory factors.

As the market navigates these developments, stakeholders remain attentive to both export data from Malaysia and policy shifts in Indonesia, recognizing their significant impact on palm oil prices and market stability.

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