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Nigeria May Face Pressure as OPEC Meets Today

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  • Nigeria May Face Pressure as OPEC Meets Today

As the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries looks set for an extension of the deal reached last year to reduce oil production, Nigeria may face pressure to cut output as supply glut remains in the market, industry experts have said.

OPEC members and non-OPEC producers including Russia agreed in December to cut output by 1.8 million barrels per day for six months from January 1, 2017.

Nigeria and Libya were exempted from the cuts because their production had suffered disruptions on the back of unrest and militant attacks.

The cuts in production resulted in a significant rally in oil prices, with Brent crude, global oil benchmark, trading as high as $56 per barrel in February. But the rise in the United States’ crude output recently pared the gains.

The exemption of Nigeria and Libya from the cuts was also seen by some market watchers as a risk to the group’s efforts to curb a global crude glut as both have regained some volumes in recent months and are expected to add more soon.

OPEC will meet in Vienna on Thursday (today) to consider whether to prolong the original deal reached in December.

This is happening at a time when Nigeria and Libya are restoring output; Iraq plans new production projects and the US drillers continue to add rigs.

Militant attacks in the Niger Delta, which pushed Nigeria’s production to just over one million barrels per day at certain points last year, the lowest in decades, have abated since the start of this year.

The Chairman/Chief Executive Officer, International Energy Services Limited, Dr. Diran Fawibe, said Nigeria might come under pressure during the meeting to join others in cutting production.

“The minister representing Nigeria will have to make a strong case for Nigeria to be exempted. But it depends on how other member countries will view the case. We can only hope that they will continue to exempt Nigeria from the cuts at least for now,” he said

Fawibe said the country lost market share on the back of the resurgence of militant attacks on oil and gas facilities last year, adding, “What Nigeria is trying to do is to recoup the production losses.”

The Vice-President/Head of Energy Research, Ecobank, Mr. Dolapo Oni, said, “It is more or less a given that there is going to be an extension of the cuts in production. The question is how much and who will participate?

“I think Iran is trying to get Nigeria to participate. Clearly, I think there will be some pressure on Nigeria to join the cuts, especially since they know now that Forcados has been reopened and I think flow stations will start flowing from next week.

“The likelihood is that there will be a stronger pressure that Nigeria should join the cuts, which could be trouble for the country. I don’t see us having to make very large cuts anyway.”

Oni, however, said as long as the cuts would translate to higher oil prices, Nigeria would still be in a good place.

The Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Dr. Ibe Kachikwu, had acknowledged that a fully-recovered Nigeria would likely be asked to share in the cuts, following the last OPEC meeting on November 30, 2016 when the production agreement was signed, according to Platts.

“I don’t expect that once you reach your volume you are going to have a free rein, so we probably have six months to get our act together and then hopefully zoom back out production and then we will be asked to contribute,” he told reporters.

The Chief Executive Officer, Oando Energy Resources, Mr. Pade Durotoye, told the Africa Independents Forum in London on Wednesday that the long-closed Forcados oilfield could be back to capacity by the end of June, enabling a return to nearly full production from the country.

“We think that the worst is behind us. Before the end of June, we will have Forcados back, which would take us comfortably back to 2.2 million bpd.”

OPEC heavyweights, Saudi Arabia and Iraq, agreed on Monday on the need to extend global cuts in oil supply by nine months in an effort to prop up crude prices.

The Saudi Energy Minister, Khalid al-Falih, said he did not expect any opposition within OPEC to extending the curbs for a further nine months, speaking after he met his Iraqi counterpart in Baghdad.

“We’re on the cusp of a rollover of the OPEC deal. We haven’t heard from Iran yet or how they plan to deal with Nigeria and Libya, which are coming back. If those two countries continue to recover, they have the ability to make up for the cuts made elsewhere,” the Director, Futures Division at Mizuho Securities USA Inc, Bob Yawger, was quoted by Bloomberg as saying.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Nigeria’s N3.3tn Power Sector Rescue Package Unveiled

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President Bola Tinubu has given the green light for a comprehensive N3.3 trillion rescue package.

This ambitious initiative seeks to tackle the country’s mounting power sector debts, which have long hindered the efficiency and reliability of electricity supply across the nation.

The unveiling of this rescue package represents a pivotal moment in Nigeria’s quest for a sustainable energy future. With power outages being a recurring nightmare for both businesses and households, the need for decisive action has never been more urgent.

At the heart of the rescue package are measures aimed at settling the staggering debts accumulated within the power sector. President Tinubu has approved a phased approach to debt repayment, encompassing cash injections and promissory notes.

This strategic allocation of funds aims to provide immediate relief to power-generating companies (Gencos) and gas suppliers, while also ensuring long-term financial stability within the sector.

Chief Adebayo Adelabu, the Minister of Power, revealed details of the rescue package at the 8th Africa Energy Marketplace held in Abuja.

Speaking at the event themed, “Towards Nigeria’s Sustainable Energy Future,” Adelabu emphasized the government’s commitment to eliminating bottlenecks and fostering policy coherence within the power sector.

One of the key highlights of the rescue package is the allocation of funds from the Gas Stabilisation Fund to settle outstanding debts owed to gas suppliers.

This critical step not only addresses the immediate liquidity concerns of gas companies but also paves the way for enhanced cooperation between gas suppliers and power generators.

Furthermore, the rescue package includes provisions for addressing the legacy debts owed to power-generating companies.

By utilizing future royalties and income streams from the gas sub-sector, the government aims to provide a sustainable solution that incentivizes investment in power generation capacity.

The announcement of the N3.3 trillion rescue package comes amidst ongoing efforts to revitalize Nigeria’s power sector.

Recent initiatives, including tariff adjustments and regulatory reforms, underscore the government’s determination to overcome longstanding challenges and enhance the sector’s effectiveness.

However, challenges persist, as highlighted by Barth Nnaji, a former Minister of Power, who emphasized the need for a robust transmission network to support increased power generation.

Nnaji’s advocacy for a super grid underscores the importance of infrastructure development in ensuring the reliability and stability of Nigeria’s power supply.

In light of these developments, stakeholders have welcomed the unveiling of the N3.3 trillion rescue package as a decisive step towards transforming Nigeria’s power sector.

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Nigeria’s Inflation Climbs to 28-Year High at 33.69% in April

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Nigeria is grappling with soaring inflation as data from the statistics agency revealed that the country’s headline inflation surged to a new 28-year high in April.

The consumer price index, which measures the inflation rate, rose to 33.69% year-on-year, up from 33.20% in March.

This surge in inflation comes amid a series of economic challenges, including subsidy cuts on petrol and electricity and twice devaluing the local naira currency by the administration of President Bola Tinubu.

The sharp rise in inflation has been a pressing concern for policymakers, leading the central bank to take measures to address the growing price pressures.

The central bank has raised interest rates twice this year, including its largest hike in around 17 years, in an attempt to contain inflationary pressures.

Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria has indicated that interest rates will remain high for as long as necessary to bring down inflation.

The bank is set to hold another rate-setting meeting next week to review its policy stance.

A report by the National Bureau of Statistics highlighted that the food and non-alcoholic beverages category continued to be the biggest contributor to inflation in April.

Food inflation, which accounts for the bulk of the inflation basket, rose to 40.53% in annual terms, up from 40.01% in March.

In response to the economic challenges posed by soaring inflation, President Tinubu’s administration has announced a salary hike of up to 35% for civil servants to ease the pressure on government workers.

Also, to support vulnerable households, the government has restarted a direct cash transfer program and distributed at least 42,000 tons of grains such as corn and millet.

The rising inflation rate presents significant challenges for Nigeria’s economy, impacting the purchasing power of consumers and adding strains to household budgets.

As the government continues to grapple with inflationary pressures, policymakers are faced with the task of implementing measures to stabilize prices and mitigate the adverse effects on the economy and livelihoods of citizens.

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FG Acknowledges Labour’s Protest, Assures Continued Dialogue

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Power - Investors King

The Federal Government through the Ministry of Power has acknowledged the organised Labour request for a reduction in electric tariff.

The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) and Trade Union Congress (TUC) had picketed offices of the National Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) and Distribution Companies nationwide over the hike in electricity tariff.

The unions had described the upward review, demanding outright cancellation.

Addressing State House correspondents after the Federal Executive Council (FEC) meeting on Tuesday, Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, said labour had the right to protest.

“We cannot stop them from organizing peaceful protest or laying down their demands. Let me make that clear. President Bola Tinubu’s administration is also a listening government.”

“We have heard their demands, we’re going to look at it, we’ll make further engagements and I believe we’re going to reach a peaceful resolution with the labor because no government can succeed without the cooperation, collaboration and partnership with the Labour unions. So we welcome the peaceful protest and I’m happy that it was not a violent protest. They’ve made their positions known and government has taken in their demands and we’re looking at it.

“But one thing that I want to state here is from the statistics of those affected by the hike in tariff, the people on the road yesterday, who embarked on the peaceful protests, more than 95% of them are not affected by the increase in the tariff of electricity. They still enjoy almost 70% government subsidy in the tariff they pay because the average costs of generating, transmitting and distributing electricity is not less than N180 today.

“A lot of them are paying below N60 so they still enjoy government’s subsidy. So when they say we should reverse the recently increased tariff, sincerely it’s not affecting them. That’s one position.

“My appeal again is that they should please not derail or distract our transformation plan for the industry. We have a clearly documented reform roadmap to take us to our desired destination, where we’re going to have reliable, functional, cost-effective and affordable electricity in Nigeria. It cannot be achieved overnight because this is a decay of almost 60 years, which we are trying to correct.”

He said there was the need for sacrifice from everybody, “from the government’s side, from the people’s side, from the private sector side. So we must bear this sacrifice for us to have a permanent gain”.

“I don’t want us to go back to the situation we were in February and March, where we had very low generation. We all felt the impact of this whereby electricity supply was very low and every household, every company, every institution, felt it. From the little reform that we’ve embarked upon since the beginning of April, we have seen the impact that electricity has improved and it can only get better.”

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