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Nigeria May Face Pressure as OPEC Meets Today

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  • Nigeria May Face Pressure as OPEC Meets Today

As the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries looks set for an extension of the deal reached last year to reduce oil production, Nigeria may face pressure to cut output as supply glut remains in the market, industry experts have said.

OPEC members and non-OPEC producers including Russia agreed in December to cut output by 1.8 million barrels per day for six months from January 1, 2017.

Nigeria and Libya were exempted from the cuts because their production had suffered disruptions on the back of unrest and militant attacks.

The cuts in production resulted in a significant rally in oil prices, with Brent crude, global oil benchmark, trading as high as $56 per barrel in February. But the rise in the United States’ crude output recently pared the gains.

The exemption of Nigeria and Libya from the cuts was also seen by some market watchers as a risk to the group’s efforts to curb a global crude glut as both have regained some volumes in recent months and are expected to add more soon.

OPEC will meet in Vienna on Thursday (today) to consider whether to prolong the original deal reached in December.

This is happening at a time when Nigeria and Libya are restoring output; Iraq plans new production projects and the US drillers continue to add rigs.

Militant attacks in the Niger Delta, which pushed Nigeria’s production to just over one million barrels per day at certain points last year, the lowest in decades, have abated since the start of this year.

The Chairman/Chief Executive Officer, International Energy Services Limited, Dr. Diran Fawibe, said Nigeria might come under pressure during the meeting to join others in cutting production.

“The minister representing Nigeria will have to make a strong case for Nigeria to be exempted. But it depends on how other member countries will view the case. We can only hope that they will continue to exempt Nigeria from the cuts at least for now,” he said

Fawibe said the country lost market share on the back of the resurgence of militant attacks on oil and gas facilities last year, adding, “What Nigeria is trying to do is to recoup the production losses.”

The Vice-President/Head of Energy Research, Ecobank, Mr. Dolapo Oni, said, “It is more or less a given that there is going to be an extension of the cuts in production. The question is how much and who will participate?

“I think Iran is trying to get Nigeria to participate. Clearly, I think there will be some pressure on Nigeria to join the cuts, especially since they know now that Forcados has been reopened and I think flow stations will start flowing from next week.

“The likelihood is that there will be a stronger pressure that Nigeria should join the cuts, which could be trouble for the country. I don’t see us having to make very large cuts anyway.”

Oni, however, said as long as the cuts would translate to higher oil prices, Nigeria would still be in a good place.

The Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Dr. Ibe Kachikwu, had acknowledged that a fully-recovered Nigeria would likely be asked to share in the cuts, following the last OPEC meeting on November 30, 2016 when the production agreement was signed, according to Platts.

“I don’t expect that once you reach your volume you are going to have a free rein, so we probably have six months to get our act together and then hopefully zoom back out production and then we will be asked to contribute,” he told reporters.

The Chief Executive Officer, Oando Energy Resources, Mr. Pade Durotoye, told the Africa Independents Forum in London on Wednesday that the long-closed Forcados oilfield could be back to capacity by the end of June, enabling a return to nearly full production from the country.

“We think that the worst is behind us. Before the end of June, we will have Forcados back, which would take us comfortably back to 2.2 million bpd.”

OPEC heavyweights, Saudi Arabia and Iraq, agreed on Monday on the need to extend global cuts in oil supply by nine months in an effort to prop up crude prices.

The Saudi Energy Minister, Khalid al-Falih, said he did not expect any opposition within OPEC to extending the curbs for a further nine months, speaking after he met his Iraqi counterpart in Baghdad.

“We’re on the cusp of a rollover of the OPEC deal. We haven’t heard from Iran yet or how they plan to deal with Nigeria and Libya, which are coming back. If those two countries continue to recover, they have the ability to make up for the cuts made elsewhere,” the Director, Futures Division at Mizuho Securities USA Inc, Bob Yawger, was quoted by Bloomberg as saying.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Federal Government Set to Seal $3.8bn Brass Methanol Project Deal in May 2024

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Gas-Pipeline

The Federal Government of Nigeria is on the brink of achieving a significant milestone as it prepares to finalize the Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the $3.8 billion Brass Methanol Project.

The agreement to be signed in May 2024 marks a pivotal step in the country’s journey toward industrialization and self-sufficiency in methanol production.

The Brass Methanol Project, located in Bayelsa State, is a flagship industrial endeavor aimed at harnessing Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources to produce methanol, a vital chemical used in various industrial processes.

With Nigeria currently reliant on imported methanol, this project holds immense promise for reducing dependency on foreign supplies and stimulating economic growth.

Upon completion, the Brass Methanol Project is expected to have a daily production capacity of 10,000 tonnes of methanol, positioning Nigeria as a major player in the global methanol market.

Furthermore, the project is projected to create up to 15,000 jobs during its construction phase, providing a significant boost to employment opportunities in the country.

The successful execution of the GSPA is essential to ensuring uninterrupted gas supply to the Brass Methanol Project.

Key stakeholders, including the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and the Nigerian Content Development & Monitoring Board, are working closely to finalize the agreement and pave the way for the project’s advancement.

Speaking on the significance of the project, Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Ekperikpe Ekpo, emphasized President Bola Tinubu’s keen interest in expediting the Brass Methanol Project.

Ekpo reaffirmed the government’s commitment to facilitating the project’s success and harnessing its potential to attract foreign direct investment and drive economic development.

The Brass Methanol Project represents a major stride toward achieving Nigeria’s industrialization goals and unlocking the full potential of its natural resources.

As the country prepares to seal the deal in May 2024, anticipation grows for the transformative impact that this landmark project will have on Nigeria’s economy and industrial landscape.

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Economy

IMF Report: Nigeria’s Inflation to Dip to 26.3% in 2024, Growth Expected at 3.3%

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IMF global - Investors King

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2024 appears cautiously optimistic with projections indicating a potential decrease in the country’s inflation rate alongside moderate economic growth.

The IMF’s revised Global Economic Outlook for 2024 highlights key forecasts for Nigeria’s economic landscape and gave insights into both inflationary trends and GDP expansion.

According to the IMF report, Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to decline to 26.3% by the end of 2024.

This projection aligns with expectations of a gradual easing of inflationary pressures within the country, although challenges such as fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate fluctuations continue to pose significant hurdles to price stability.

In tandem with the inflation forecast, the IMF also predicts a modest economic growth rate of 3.3% for Nigeria in 2024.

This growth projection reflects a cautious optimism regarding the country’s economic recovery and resilience in the face of various internal and external challenges.

Despite the ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and address macroeconomic imbalances, the IMF underscores the need for continued policy reforms and prudent fiscal management to sustain growth momentum.

The IMF report provides valuable insights into Nigeria’s economic trajectory, offering policymakers, investors, and stakeholders a comprehensive understanding of the country’s macroeconomic dynamics.

While the projected decline in inflation and modest growth outlook offer reasons for cautious optimism, it remains essential for Nigerian authorities to remain vigilant and proactive in addressing underlying structural vulnerabilities and promoting inclusive economic development.

As the country navigates through a challenging economic landscape, concerted efforts towards policy coordination, investment promotion, and structural reforms will be crucial in unlocking Nigeria’s full growth potential and fostering long-term prosperity.

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South Africa’s March Inflation Hits Two-Month Low Amid Economic Uncertainty

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South Africa's economy - Investors King

South Africa’s inflation rate declined to a two-month low, according to data released by Statistics South Africa.

Consumer prices rose by 5.3% year-on-year, down from 5.6% in February. While this decline may initially suggest a positive trend, analysts caution against premature optimism due to various economic factors at play.

The weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, coupled with drought conditions affecting staple crops like white corn and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East leading to rising oil prices, poses significant challenges.

These factors are expected to keep inflation relatively high and stubborn in the coming months, making policymakers hesitant to adjust borrowing costs.

Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, reiterated the bank’s cautious stance on inflation pressures.

Despite the recent easing, inflation has consistently remained above the midpoint of the central bank’s target range of 3-6% since May 2021. Consequently, the bank has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 8.25% for nearly a year, aiming to anchor inflation expectations.

While some traders speculate on potential interest rate hikes, forward-rate agreements indicate a low likelihood of such a move at the upcoming monetary policy committee meeting.

The yield on 10-year bonds also saw a marginal decline following the release of the inflation data.

March’s inflation decline was mainly attributed to lower prices in miscellaneous goods and services, education, health, and housing and utilities.

However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, remained relatively steady at 4.9%.

Overall, South Africa’s inflation trajectory underscores the delicate balance between economic recovery and inflation containment amid ongoing global uncertainties.

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