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Nigeria to Raise $3.5bn in Foreign Loans to Fund Budget

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Forex Weekly Outlook March 6 - 10
  • Nigeria to Raise $3.5bn in Foreign Loans to Fund Budget

Global Markets: Global markets traded mixed this past week amidst a number of factors. The markets got off to a positive start to the week on continued recovery in oil prices from recent slide, driven by announcement that Saudi and Russia are open to extending the OPEC oil production cut. Notably, Technology & Cybersecurity stocks surged on news of the global ransomware attack. Global market sentiment however weakened at mid-week on political pressures in the U.S. coupled with a batch of less-than-impressive fresh earnings releases. At week close, Asian markets closed mixed whilst U.S. and European markets rebounded from losses in mid-week.

Domestic Economy:  Reports from the Budget Office indicate that Nigeria plans to raise $3.5 billion (c.1.068 trillion) and $4 billion (c.1.220 trillion) in foreign and domestic loans to fund the 2017 budget which has an estimated deficit of 2.21 trillion (c.2.2% of GDP). Breaking down the foreign borrowing, we see that $2bn of the planned borrowing would come from concessionary loans while the balance of $1.5 billion would be funded through Eurobonds. We recall that to fund 2016 capital expenditure, Nigeria raised $1.5bn in Eurobonds in Q1’17 at a weighted average yield of 7.75% amidst strong investor interest (6.8x oversubscribed). With yields on Nigeria’s Eurobonds falling in recent months (7.88% FGN FEB 2032 down c.100bps from issue), coupled with an improved outlook on oil earnings and foreign exchange liquidity at the NAFEX window, we anticipate strong investor demand for Nigeria’s Eurobonds.

 Equities: Coming off three consecutive sessions of modest gains, momentum slowed on the Nigerian bourse at week close (NSE ASI up 4bps) as persistent profit taking across Consumer Goods names depressed gains across other key sectors. The ASI was however down 28bps w/w largely due to the broad market profit-taking at week open. Whilst we note the emergence of profit taking on select stocks during the week, overall sentiment in the market was bullish — largely positive market breadth. At week close however, profit taking emerged once again, with d/d gains slowing to 4bps.

Fixed Income: After opening the week mixed, the bills market turned bearish on Tuesday on the back of pressured system liquidity and higher than expected inflation reading for April. At mid-week, the Central bank of Nigeria (CBN) conducted a Primary Market Auction for bills offering and selling 111 billion at respective stop rates of 13.50%, 17.1490% and 18.70% — lower than secondary market levels. Bearish trading persisted as CBN mop up dampened buying sentiment. However, some buying interest resurfaced at week close as yields declined across the space. Meanwhile, the bond market opened the week slightly bullish before reversing trend amidst the April inflation figure and ahead of next week’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting.

Currency: The CBN sustained its consistent interventions in the currency market, conducting a couple of spot and forward auctions. Worthy of note is the currency sale on Monday, where the CBN injected c.$457 million across the different FX windows. Over the week, the naira appreciated N0.83 and N6.50 at the respective NAFEX and parallel markets to close at N381.61 and N378.00 against the dollar.

What will shape markets in the coming week?

Equity market: Whilst the slowing appetite across most key sectors (amidst profit taking) spell a weak start to the week ahead, we believe sentiment will strengthen along the week as the key drivers behind the market rally persist.

Fixed Income market:  Notwithstanding  re-emerging demand on bills, we expect cautious trading in the fixed income market at the start of the coming week as all eyes turn towards the MPC meeting on Monday and Tuesday .

Currency:  We expect CBN interventions to sustain liquidity in the foreign exchange market as investors continue to test the waters at the NAFEX window.

Focus for the week

APRIL INFLATION —   Accelerating food prices drive inflation

Bucking expectations once more, Nigeria’s annual inflation registered at 17.2% in April, marginally lower than 17.3% in March but ahead of Vetiva and Consensus estimate of 16.9%. Month-on-month (m/m) inflation dropped to 1.62% (March: 1.72%), above the 12-month average of 1.33%. In keeping with this year’s trend, Food Inflation was the primary driver, clocking in at 19.3% – an 8-year high, as the food index rose 2.04% m/m (March: 2.21%). In contrast, steered by lower m/m inflation (April: 1.10% vs. March: 1.32%), Core Inflation moderated to 14.8% y/y, the lowest reading since the corresponding period of 2016.

Rising food prices confound

Food Inflation is at worryingly high levels. The index is up 8% in the first four months of the year and at current pace, national food prices would have risen 27% by the end of 2017. This price surge is a domestic phenomenon as Imported Food Inflation moderated – 18.1% in March to 17.0% in April – understandably given the improvement in liquidity in the foreign exchange market, relative stability of the exchange rate, and downtrend in global food prices. From a regional perspective, pressure on food prices is most apparent in the South-East and North-West regions, driven by food prices in Enugu and Kano respectively. Looking at data from the National Bureau of Statistics Select Food Prices Watch 2017, domestic food prices have been trending upwards, though average price of tracked items fell marginally (0.9%) m/m.

Energy prices ease Core Inflation

The moderation in Core Inflation can be partly attributed to a slower pace of inflation in Utilities – down from 18.9% in March to 16.0% in April. For petroleum products, this would have been driven by lower product landing costs in March compared to the first two months of 2017. Unsurprisingly, average household kerosene (HHK) and automotive gas oil (diesel) prices moderated for the second consecutive month. However, average premium motor spirit (PMS) prices rose slightly (0.3%) amidst a larger variation in regional prices.

Inflationary trend remains in 2017

2016 was a particularly tough year for Nigeria and some of its regional peers as they all experienced high levels of inflation, mainly due to currency depreciation and high energy prices. As those inflationary pressures wane and base effects kick in, the expectation is that inflation will moderate over 2017. However, we have observed differing experiences across countries. Ghana has been the most successful so far as its headline inflation rate has fallen from 18.9% in April 2016 to 13.0% in April 2017 – a reversal compared to Nigeria. This has permitted the central bank to continue its monetary easing cycle (250bps rate cut since November 2016).

Angola’s experience is most similar to Nigeria’s – inflation is moderating but remains higher than previous year’s levels, as well as the central bank’s benchmark interest rate. But unlike with food prices in Nigeria, Angola has no new source of inflationary pressure so the pace of moderation should pick up. Egypt has fared the worst this year as the devaluation of the Egyptian pound in November has stoked inflation which hit a 30-year high in April.

Policy powerless to tackle stubborn inflation

The Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of Nigeria meets next week and they will mull over recent inflation figures. Unfortunately, we consider the policy levers in their arsenal as inadequate for tackling the current inflationary pressure in the country. Persistent CBN intervention in money and foreign exchange (FX) markets ensures minimal excess naira liquidity and current inflation is neither a demand nor monetary phenomenon. Instead, we expect a continuation of trend so far as food prices weigh on the consumer basket even as better FX liquidity stabilizes the currency and suppresses imported inflation. In light of this and with base effects kicking in strongly next month (largest m/m jump observed in 2016), we forecast inflation of 15.8% in May, bringing 2017 average inflation to 15.8%, notably higher than 15.6% recorded in 2016.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Economy

Nigeria’s N3.3tn Power Sector Rescue Package Unveiled

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power project

President Bola Tinubu has given the green light for a comprehensive N3.3 trillion rescue package.

This ambitious initiative seeks to tackle the country’s mounting power sector debts, which have long hindered the efficiency and reliability of electricity supply across the nation.

The unveiling of this rescue package represents a pivotal moment in Nigeria’s quest for a sustainable energy future. With power outages being a recurring nightmare for both businesses and households, the need for decisive action has never been more urgent.

At the heart of the rescue package are measures aimed at settling the staggering debts accumulated within the power sector. President Tinubu has approved a phased approach to debt repayment, encompassing cash injections and promissory notes.

This strategic allocation of funds aims to provide immediate relief to power-generating companies (Gencos) and gas suppliers, while also ensuring long-term financial stability within the sector.

Chief Adebayo Adelabu, the Minister of Power, revealed details of the rescue package at the 8th Africa Energy Marketplace held in Abuja.

Speaking at the event themed, “Towards Nigeria’s Sustainable Energy Future,” Adelabu emphasized the government’s commitment to eliminating bottlenecks and fostering policy coherence within the power sector.

One of the key highlights of the rescue package is the allocation of funds from the Gas Stabilisation Fund to settle outstanding debts owed to gas suppliers.

This critical step not only addresses the immediate liquidity concerns of gas companies but also paves the way for enhanced cooperation between gas suppliers and power generators.

Furthermore, the rescue package includes provisions for addressing the legacy debts owed to power-generating companies.

By utilizing future royalties and income streams from the gas sub-sector, the government aims to provide a sustainable solution that incentivizes investment in power generation capacity.

The announcement of the N3.3 trillion rescue package comes amidst ongoing efforts to revitalize Nigeria’s power sector.

Recent initiatives, including tariff adjustments and regulatory reforms, underscore the government’s determination to overcome longstanding challenges and enhance the sector’s effectiveness.

However, challenges persist, as highlighted by Barth Nnaji, a former Minister of Power, who emphasized the need for a robust transmission network to support increased power generation.

Nnaji’s advocacy for a super grid underscores the importance of infrastructure development in ensuring the reliability and stability of Nigeria’s power supply.

In light of these developments, stakeholders have welcomed the unveiling of the N3.3 trillion rescue package as a decisive step towards transforming Nigeria’s power sector.

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Nigeria’s Inflation Climbs to 28-Year High at 33.69% in April

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Nigeria's Inflation Rate - Investors King

Nigeria is grappling with soaring inflation as data from the statistics agency revealed that the country’s headline inflation surged to a new 28-year high in April.

The consumer price index, which measures the inflation rate, rose to 33.69% year-on-year, up from 33.20% in March.

This surge in inflation comes amid a series of economic challenges, including subsidy cuts on petrol and electricity and twice devaluing the local naira currency by the administration of President Bola Tinubu.

The sharp rise in inflation has been a pressing concern for policymakers, leading the central bank to take measures to address the growing price pressures.

The central bank has raised interest rates twice this year, including its largest hike in around 17 years, in an attempt to contain inflationary pressures.

Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria has indicated that interest rates will remain high for as long as necessary to bring down inflation.

The bank is set to hold another rate-setting meeting next week to review its policy stance.

A report by the National Bureau of Statistics highlighted that the food and non-alcoholic beverages category continued to be the biggest contributor to inflation in April.

Food inflation, which accounts for the bulk of the inflation basket, rose to 40.53% in annual terms, up from 40.01% in March.

In response to the economic challenges posed by soaring inflation, President Tinubu’s administration has announced a salary hike of up to 35% for civil servants to ease the pressure on government workers.

Also, to support vulnerable households, the government has restarted a direct cash transfer program and distributed at least 42,000 tons of grains such as corn and millet.

The rising inflation rate presents significant challenges for Nigeria’s economy, impacting the purchasing power of consumers and adding strains to household budgets.

As the government continues to grapple with inflationary pressures, policymakers are faced with the task of implementing measures to stabilize prices and mitigate the adverse effects on the economy and livelihoods of citizens.

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FG Acknowledges Labour’s Protest, Assures Continued Dialogue

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Power - Investors King

The Federal Government through the Ministry of Power has acknowledged the organised Labour request for a reduction in electric tariff.

The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) and Trade Union Congress (TUC) had picketed offices of the National Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) and Distribution Companies nationwide over the hike in electricity tariff.

The unions had described the upward review, demanding outright cancellation.

Addressing State House correspondents after the Federal Executive Council (FEC) meeting on Tuesday, Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, said labour had the right to protest.

“We cannot stop them from organizing peaceful protest or laying down their demands. Let me make that clear. President Bola Tinubu’s administration is also a listening government.”

“We have heard their demands, we’re going to look at it, we’ll make further engagements and I believe we’re going to reach a peaceful resolution with the labor because no government can succeed without the cooperation, collaboration and partnership with the Labour unions. So we welcome the peaceful protest and I’m happy that it was not a violent protest. They’ve made their positions known and government has taken in their demands and we’re looking at it.

“But one thing that I want to state here is from the statistics of those affected by the hike in tariff, the people on the road yesterday, who embarked on the peaceful protests, more than 95% of them are not affected by the increase in the tariff of electricity. They still enjoy almost 70% government subsidy in the tariff they pay because the average costs of generating, transmitting and distributing electricity is not less than N180 today.

“A lot of them are paying below N60 so they still enjoy government’s subsidy. So when they say we should reverse the recently increased tariff, sincerely it’s not affecting them. That’s one position.

“My appeal again is that they should please not derail or distract our transformation plan for the industry. We have a clearly documented reform roadmap to take us to our desired destination, where we’re going to have reliable, functional, cost-effective and affordable electricity in Nigeria. It cannot be achieved overnight because this is a decay of almost 60 years, which we are trying to correct.”

He said there was the need for sacrifice from everybody, “from the government’s side, from the people’s side, from the private sector side. So we must bear this sacrifice for us to have a permanent gain”.

“I don’t want us to go back to the situation we were in February and March, where we had very low generation. We all felt the impact of this whereby electricity supply was very low and every household, every company, every institution, felt it. From the little reform that we’ve embarked upon since the beginning of April, we have seen the impact that electricity has improved and it can only get better.”

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