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Euro Weakens as Markets Look Past Macron Victory Toward Draghi

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  • Euro Weakens as Markets Look Past Macron Victory Toward Draghi

The euro dropped from a six-month high against the dollar as relief over Emmanuel Macron’s victory in the French presidential election was replaced by concern the European Central Bank will maintain currency-weakening stimulus.

The shared currency fell versus most of its major peers as Macron’s expected victory over Marine Le Pen spurred investors to take profits. ECB Executive Board member Peter Praet said last week the region’s recent economic improvement isn’t yet sufficient reason to tighten policy. ECB President Mario Draghi will speak to the Dutch parliament on Wednesday.

“The euro is a sell on rallies above 1.10 against the dollar as the ECB’s senior leadership under Draghi and Praet remain cautious about the outlook for euro-zone inflation, while U.S. payrolls suggests the Fed will continue to hike rates,” says Mansoor Mohi-uddin, a Singapore-based strategist at NatWest Markets, a unit of Royal Bank of Scotland Plc.

The euro is likely to be supported on any dips, according to Peter Dragicevich, a foreign-exchange strategist at Nomura Singapore Ltd. “The mix of an improving euro-zone economy, the looming shift by the ECB toward a tapering of its asset purchases and less accommodative monetary policy stance, and the euro zone’s large current account surplus (equal to about 3.4% of GDP) are positives for the currency,” he said.

  • EUR/USD falls 0.1% to 1.0990 after rising to 1.1023, highest since Nov. 9
    • Bids at 1.10 for options desks slowed the initial decline but once they were filled, the down move accelerated, according to an Asia-based FX trader not authorized to speak publicly
    • “The euro is under downward pressure as euro longs unwound their positions, especially in the crosses to reflect the result of the election,” said Naohiro Nomoto, manager of FX trading at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ. “Before the election, euro longs were built against commodities currencies such as the Australian dollar and the Canadian dollar but profit-taking mood is growing as commodity prices are recovering”
  • EUR/JPY little changed at 123.81 after climbing to 124.59, highest since May 2016
  • USD/JPY steady at 112.95; U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rises 1bp to 2.37%
  • AUD/USD weakens after March building data misses all estimates, coming in at minus 13.4% m/m, vs estimated 4% drop
    • Spot down 0.1% to 0.7416 and recovering from as low as 0.7386 after data was published

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Naira

Nigeria Hits Historic High as Currency in Circulation Surges to N3.69 Trillion

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Nigeria’s currency in circulation surged to a historic high of N3.69 trillion, according to data released by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

This figure represents an increase of N43.07 billion or 1.18 percent from the total of N3.65 trillion reported in January 2024 and a 13.64 percent year-on-year rise from N3.25 trillion reported in February 2023.

Currency in circulation encompasses the physical cash, including paper notes and coins, actively used in transactions between consumers and businesses within the country.

The latest statistics indicate a considerable uptick in the availability of cash within the Nigerian economy.

The surge in currency supply comes amidst lingering concerns over a potential cash crunch following the monetary policy adjustments by the CBN, particularly the aggressive tightening stance of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).

Analysts attribute this spike to various factors, including the fear factor stemming from the cash crunch experienced in 2023 and lingering uncertainties surrounding the administration of physical currency.

Despite the surge in currency in circulation, Nigeria’s economic growth remains sluggish, with projections indicating growth rates of around 2.9 percent to 3.1 percent for 2024.

Also, inflation remains a significant concern, with the headline inflation rate climbing to 31.70 percent in February 2024 from 29.9 percent reported in January 2024, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

The CBN’s proactive approach to monetary policy, including a historic increase in the monetary policy rate (MPR) to 24.75 percent, underscores the central bank’s commitment to addressing economic challenges and fostering stability amidst persistent pressures.

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Naira

Nigerian Naira Surges to N1,350 per Dollar in Parallel Market

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The Nigerian Naira has appreciated to N1,350 per dollar in the parallel market, a significant gain from its previous rate of N1,430 per dollar just a day earlier.

Similarly, in the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM), the naira strengthened to N1,382.95 per dollar, indicating an upward trend across key forex segments.

Data from FMDQ revealed that the indicative exchange rate for NAFEM fell to N1,382.95 per dollar from N1,408.04 per dollar on the previous day, representing a gain of N25.09 for the naira.

This surge in the naira’s value has widened the margin between the parallel market rate and NAFEM to N32.95 per dollar from N21.96 per dollar previously.

Analysts attribute this impressive surge to recent foreign exchange reforms implemented by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

These reforms, including the consolidation of exchange rate windows and liberalization of the FX market, have contributed to bolstering the naira’s strength against the dollar.

The CBN’s proactive measures aim to promote stability, transparency, and liquidity in the foreign exchange market, fostering confidence among investors and strengthening the national currency.

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CBN Governor Reveals $2.4 Billion Forex Forwards Under Investigation

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Naira Exchange Rates - Investors King

Governor Yemi Cardoso of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) disclosed that law enforcement agencies are currently investigating foreign exchange forwards valued at $2.4 billion.

This announcement came in the wake of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting held in Abuja on Tuesday, March 26.

Governor Cardoso shed light on the meticulous forensic audit conducted on these transactions, which uncovered numerous discrepancies, rendering them ineligible for payment.

The CBN, while settling certain tranches of FX backlog, encountered transactions riddled with issues concerning their authenticity.

To address these concerns, Deloitte management consultants were enlisted to conduct a comprehensive forensic analysis spanning several months.

The audit revealed a multitude of irregularities, including allocations disbursed without corresponding requests, lack of proper documentation, and instances of outright illegality.

Cardoso emphasized the gravity of the situation, stating, “We refused to validate them because, apart from the fact that documentation was not satisfactory in many cases, they were outright illegal.”

He underscored the commitment of law enforcement agencies to investigate these transactions thoroughly.

Despite concerns about potential backlogs among stakeholders, Cardoso assured that the market remains open and transparent for addressing any outstanding contractual obligations.

The CBN has diligently verified and settled recognized backlogs of forward transactions.

This revelation comes at a critical juncture as Nigeria grapples with economic challenges, including inflationary pressures.

The MPC’s decision to raise the benchmark interest rate to 24.75 percent reflects efforts to stabilize prices and restore the purchasing power of the average Nigerian.

As investigations unfold and regulatory scrutiny intensifies, the CBN’s commitment to transparency and financial integrity will be closely monitored by stakeholders across the nation.

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