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Euro-Area Inflation Picks Up as ECB Takes Baby Step Toward Exit

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  • Euro-Area Inflation Picks Up as ECB Takes Baby Step Toward Exit

Euro-area inflation bounced back to a level in line with the European Central Bank goal and underlying price growth surged, setting up a debate about an exit from unconventional stimulus that may lead to a policy signal in June.

Consumer prices rose an annual 1.9 percent in April after gaining 1.5 percent in March, according to Eurostat data published Friday. Economists predicted an increase of 1.8 percent. Core inflation, a measure that excludes volatile components such as food and energy prices, jumped to 1.2 percent, the most in almost four years and stronger than anticipated.

ECB policy makers, who kept interest rates and the pace of asset purchases unchanged on Thursday, stressed that they still don’t see a convincing upward trend in underlying prices, even as they acknowledged that risks to the economic outlook have become more balanced. With economists predicting that the central bank will take less time to taper quantitative easing, and will tighten borrowing costs sooner than previously forecast, the focus will now turn to whether and how it will revise forward guidance in six weeks.

Bloomberg Intelligence estimates that an Easter-related surge in prices for package holidays, particularly in Germany, is likely the predominant reason for the acceleration in core inflation.

The rate will “eventually show some signs of life as the output gap closes,” David Powell, BI’s chief euro-area economist, wrote before the release. “That may allow the ECB to announce as soon as September that its asset purchases will be tapered by 10 billion euros ($11 billion) a month in January.”

ECB President Mario Draghi flagged this month’s pick-up in inflation on Thursday and predicted that the rate would hover around current levels through the end of the year.

“As unutilized resources are still weighing on domestic wage and price formation, measures of underlying inflation remain low and are expected to rise only gradually over the medium term,” he told reporters in Frankfurt.

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Inch Down Amid Dollar Strength and Interest Rate Concerns

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Crude oil prices declined on Monday as the U.S. dollar strengthened and concerns over potential interest rate hikes resurfaced.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, slipped marginally by 3 cents to settle at $85.21 per barrel following a modest 0.6% decline on Friday.

Similarly, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil saw a minimal decrease of 2 cents to close at $80.71 per barrel.

Market analysts pointed to the robust performance of the U.S. dollar, which gained ground after the release of positive Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data on Friday.

Tony Sycamore, a markets analyst at IG in Sydney, noted, “The U.S. dollar has opened bid this morning and appears to have broken higher following better U.S. PMI data on Friday night and political concerns ahead of the French election.”

A stronger dollar typically makes dollar-denominated commodities like oil less attractive for holders of other currencies, putting downward pressure on prices.

Last week, however, both Brent and WTI crude contracts managed to gain approximately 3% each.

This was largely driven by increasing signs of demand recovery for oil products in the U.S., the world’s largest consumer of crude oil. Additionally, ongoing supply constraints enforced by OPEC+ further supported market sentiment.

According to ANZ analysts, U.S. crude inventories continued their decline while gasoline demand recorded a seventh consecutive weekly rise.

Moreover, jet fuel consumption has rebounded to levels last seen in 2019, indicating a robust recovery in travel-related fuel demand.

Speculative activity in the oil market has also been notable, with analysts from ING observing an increase in net-long positions in ICE Brent as traders adopt a more positive outlook heading into the summer months.

“We remain supportive towards the oil market with a deficit over the third quarter set to tighten the oil balance,” they stated.

Despite these bullish indicators, geopolitical tensions persisted, providing a floor for oil prices.

Escalating conflicts in the Middle East, including the Gaza crisis and increased drone attacks on Russian refineries by Ukrainian forces, continued to underpin market sentiment.

In South America, Ecuador’s state oil company Petroecuador declared force majeure on deliveries of Napo heavy crude for exports due to severe weather conditions.

Heavy rains led to the shutdown of a critical pipeline and oil wells, impacting production and exports.

Meanwhile, in the U.S., the number of operating oil rigs fell by three to 485 last week, marking the lowest count since January 2022, according to Baker Hughes’ weekly report.

Looking ahead, the interplay between the U.S. dollar’s strength, geopolitical developments, and economic indicators such as PMI data will likely dictate short-term oil price movements.

Investors and analysts remain vigilant for any shifts in these factors that could influence global oil market dynamics in the coming weeks.

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Gold

First Commercial Gold Transaction Nets Nigeria $5 Million in Foreign Reserves

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The Ministry of Solid Minerals Development has concluded its first commercial transaction under the National Gold Purchase Program (NGPP), bolstering the nation’s foreign reserves by $5 million.

Minister of Solid Minerals Development, Dele Alake, announced the successful sale of over 70 kilograms of gold, refined to meet the stringent London Bullion Market Association Good Delivery Standard.

Speaking at the presentation ceremony, Alake emphasized the economic significance of the transaction, stating that it injects approximately NGN 6 billion into the rural economy.

He lauded President Tinubu for his unwavering support for reforms in the solid minerals sector, highlighting the pivotal role of the NGPP in enhancing Nigeria’s foreign reserves and bolstering the value of the Naira.

“This transaction represents a strategic move to use the Nigerian Naira to acquire a liquid asset denominated in United States Dollars, demonstrating a viable strategy for fiscal and monetary stability,” Alake stated.

He further expressed confidence in the NGPP’s ability to contribute to Nigeria’s economic diversification agenda, fostering greater economic confidence and attracting foreign investment.

Executive Secretary of the Solid Minerals Development Fund, Fatima Shinkafi, explained that adherence to the London Bullion Market Good Delivery Standard ensures that Nigeria’s gold exports meet global trading requirements.

She emphasized that only gold bars meeting these standards are acceptable in the settlement of Loco London contracts, reinforcing Nigeria’s credibility in the global gold market.

President Tinubu, upon receiving a symbolic gold bar, commended the Ministry for achieving a crucial milestone in the nation’s economic diversification efforts.

He described the transaction as a concrete step towards realizing the objectives of the Renewed Hope Agenda, aimed at reducing economic dependence on oil and gas revenues.

Through initiatives like the NGPP, Nigeria aims to further enhance its gold reserves, promote economic stability, and create an environment conducive to sustainable economic growth.

The successful completion of the first commercial gold transaction marks a pivotal moment in Nigeria’s journey towards becoming a key player in the global gold market, driving economic prosperity and resilience.

The Ministry of Solid Minerals Development continues to advocate for supportive policies and regulatory frameworks that promote transparency, efficiency, and sustainability in the mining sector, laying the groundwork for future economic growth and development.

As Nigeria moves forward with its gold refining and export initiatives, stakeholders anticipate continued progress in diversifying revenue streams and strengthening the nation’s economic resilience on the global stage.

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Crude Oil

Oil Prices Slip as Japan’s Rising Inflation Signals Rate Hikes

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Crude oil fell in early trading on Friday as concerns over sustained high interest rates in both Asia and the United States weighed on the outlook.

This trend is attributed to Japan’s increasing inflation, which is prompting expectations of imminent rate hikes by its central bank.

Brent crude edged declined by 11 cents to settle at $85.60 per barrel while the U.S. crude oil declined by 9 cents to $81.20 per barrel.

Recent data revealed that Japan’s core consumer prices rose by 2.5% in May compared to the same month last year. This increase marks a growth from the previous month, suggesting that the Bank of Japan is likely to raise interest rates in the upcoming months to curb inflation.

In the United States, data released on Thursday showed a decrease in the number of new unemployment claims for the week ending June 14, indicating continued strength in the job market.

This persistent robustness in employment raises the likelihood that the U.S. Federal Reserve will maintain higher interest rates for a longer period.

Higher interest rates typically have a dampening effect on economic activity, which can subsequently reduce oil demand.

The prospect of prolonged elevated interest rates in two major economies has therefore put downward pressure on crude oil prices.

Despite the downward trend, oil prices received some support from the latest figures from the Energy Information Administration (EIA).

The data showed a drawdown in U.S. crude inventories by 2.5 million barrels in the week ending June 14, bringing the total to 457.1 million barrels. This exceeded analysts’ expectations, who had predicted a 2.2 million-barrel reduction.

Also, gasoline inventories fell by 2.3 million barrels to 231.2 million barrels, contrary to forecasts that anticipated a 600,000-barrel increase.

“Gasoline finally came to life and posted its first strong report of the summer driving season,” remarked Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho in New York, highlighting the surprising uptick in gasoline demand.

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