Forex

Forex Weekly Outlook April 3-7

Published

7 years ago

April 2, 2017

Forex Weekly Outlook April 3-7

The US economy expanded more than previously estimated in the final quarter of 2016, growing at 2.1 percent annualized rated instead of the previously reported 1.9 percent. However, despite a 3.5 percent expansion rate recorded in the third quarter, the total growth in 2016 remains the worst performance since 2011 — plunging to 1.6 percent following a 2.6 percent growth rate recorded in 2015.

Nevertheless, consumer sentiment rose to 96.9 in March, signaling that Americans are less upbeat about the long-term economic outlook. But consumer spending rose less than predicted in February even with the surge in wage growth. Suggesting that surge in inflation (2.1%) may be affecting consumer spending.

Accordingly, Federal Open Market Committee are expected to raise rates further this year to moderate consumer prices and proposed fiscal stimulus by the new administration. This optimism continued to aid the US dollar’s attractiveness against other pairs and bolstered bond market outlook.

In the UK, Prime Minister Theresa May officially triggered article 50 of Lisbon Treaty on Wednesday and stated that refusal of the European Union to accept the terms of the Brexit will have security implications. Compelling the European Union President Donald Tusk to declare on Friday that defense and security won’t be bargaining chips in Brexit negotiations.

In Canada, the Canadian economy expanded by a healthy 0.6 percent in January from December, indicating first-quarter growth will be stronger than expected as the country gradually recovers from the shock of low oil prices. The Canadian dollar improved against the US dollar to 75.24 U.S. cents

Generally, the US economy remains strong and so is the U.S dollar. However, the uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook remains.

This week NZDUSD and AUDJPY top my list

The NZDUSD pair reversed 814 pips after dropping 2640 pips to 0.6195 in 2015. This reversal has carved out a wedge pattern not only to affirm that the temporary bullish trend is waning but also to ascertain bearish continuation.

Similarly, the aforementioned correlates with our February projection that higher exchange rate would affect New Zealand consumer goods as it would have pushed the cost of goods higher and subsequently reduced consumer spending. However, inspite of this bearish view, this pair has traded moderately high against the Reserve Bank of New Zealand call for lower exchange rates.

But with the renewed US dollar’s attractiveness following policy-makers comments on three more rate hikes in 2017. I am expecting this pair to gain bearish momentum as a continuation of the long-term downward trend. A break below the wedge pattern should expose our first support of 0.6892 and sustained break of that level should give us 0.6716 targets.

AUDJPY

Considering Australia’s economic outlook and declining trade surplus that saw trade balance unexpectedly narrowed 61 percent to AUD 1.30 billion January from a downwardly revised AUD 3.33 billion surplus in December, 84.97 exchange rate is high and would hurt consumer spending further if not check. Also, I don’t see the Aussie breaking its 15-month high after dropping below 86.34 support turned resistance.

Technically, this pair has given 435 pips since peaking at 88.16 in February, its 15-month high but after plunging 3041 pips for the past 2 years. I will be treating the new upsurge as a temporary reversal and expect a break below upward trend to open up 82.70 support levels, while a sustained break should expose our target at 80.82 as shown above.

Last Week Recap

CADJPY

Last week positive economic growth (GDP) data aided the Loonie to recover mildly against the Japanese Yen. However, with the price below 85.86, 20-moving average, I remain bearish on this pair and expect a sustained break of 83.11 to open up 80.27 targets as more sellers jump on it. Hence, I will be looking to sell bellow 83.11 support levels.

NZDJPY

Likewise, I remain bearish on this pair as long as 78.83 resistance holds and will be looking to add to my position.

Up Next

CBN Disburses $240 Million Forex to BDCs, Others Today

Don't Miss

CBN Moves on Forex to Boost Economy

Samed Olukoya

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

Comments

Naira

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate Today 17th May 2024

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 17th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,540.

Published

1 day ago

May 17, 2024

Samed Olukoya

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 17th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,540.

Recent data from Bureau De Change (BDC) reveals that buyers in the Lagos Parallel Market purchased a dollar for ₦1,560 and sold it at ₦1,550 on Thursday, May 16th, 2024.

This indicates a slight improvement in the Naira exchange rate when compared to today’s rate.

The black market rate plays a crucial role for investors and participants, offering a real-time reflection of currency dynamics outside official or regulated exchange channels.

Monitoring these rates provides insights into the immediate value of the Naira against the dollar, guiding decision-making processes for individuals and businesses alike.

It’s important to note that while the black market offers valuable insights, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not officially recognize its existence.

The CBN advises individuals engaging in forex transactions to utilize official banking channels, emphasizing the importance of compliance with regulatory frameworks.

How much is dollar to naira today in the black market

For those navigating the currency exchange landscape, here are the latest figures for the black market exchange rate:

Buying Rate: ₦1,540
Selling Rate: ₦1,530

As economic conditions continue to evolve, staying informed about currency exchange rates empowers individuals to make informed financial decisions. While the black market provides immediate insights, adherence to regulatory guidelines ensures stability and transparency in forex transactions.

Forex

SEC and ABCON Explore Collaboration for ‘Kolectyomoni’ Digital Currency Platform

Published

1 day ago

May 17, 2024

Samed Olukoya

The Association of Bureaux De Change Operators of Nigeria (ABCON) has initiated talks with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to explore collaboration on its upcoming digital currency market platform, ‘Kolectyomoni’.

This move was underscored during an official visit by ABCON representatives to the newly appointed Director General of the SEC, Dr. Timi Agama. Aminu Gwadabe, President of ABCON, conveyed the association’s eagerness to engage with SEC to ensure the smooth operation of its digital currency platform.

Gwadabe emphasized that ABCON recognizes the regulatory oversight of SEC in the financial sector and seeks its guidance to navigate the complexities of the digital currency market.

He pointed out that while digital currencies hold immense potential for financial inclusion and innovation, they also present regulatory challenges that require collaborative efforts between industry stakeholders and regulatory bodies.

Highlighting the significance of embracing digital currencies, Gwadabe noted, “The future of BDC’s business is digital currency.”

He stressed the growing adoption of digital currencies among Nigerians, citing statistics that reveal a rising number of participants in the digital currency ecosystem, with a substantial market size of $9 billion annually.

In response, Dr. Timi Agama expressed SEC’s openness to support and facilitate the growth of the digital currency sector in Nigeria.

He acknowledged ABCON’s initiative in launching the ‘Kolectyomoni’ platform and assured of SEC’s cooperation in providing regulatory guidance and oversight.

Agama reaffirmed SEC’s commitment to fostering innovation in the financial sector while ensuring investor protection and market integrity.

He underscored the importance of collaboration between regulators and industry players to develop robust frameworks that foster innovation and safeguard against potential risks.

Furthermore, Agama encouraged ABCON to finalize the development of the ‘Kolectyomoni’ digital currency platform and submit it to the SEC for thorough review and assessment by the technical team.

He emphasized the need for timely regulatory oversight to address emerging trends in the digital currency market and maintain regulatory compliance.

Naira

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate Today 16th May 2024

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 16th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,560.

Published

3 days ago

May 16, 2024

Samed Olukoya

The black market, also known as the parallel market or Aboki fx, US dollar to Nigerian Naira exchange rate as of May 16th, 2024 stood at 1 USD to ₦1,560.

Recent data from Bureau De Change (BDC) reveals that buyers in the Lagos Parallel Market purchased a dollar for ₦1,530 and sold it at ₦1,520 on Wednesday, May 15th, 2024.

This indicates a decline in the Naira exchange rate compared to the current rate.

The black market rate plays a crucial role for investors and participants, offering a real-time reflection of currency dynamics outside official or regulated exchange channels.

Monitoring these rates provides insights into the immediate value of the Naira against the dollar, guiding decision-making processes for individuals and businesses alike.

It’s important to note that while the black market offers valuable insights, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not officially recognize its existence.

The CBN advises individuals engaging in forex transactions to utilize official banking channels, emphasizing the importance of compliance with regulatory frameworks.