Forex

Forex Weekly Outlook April 3-7

Published

7 years ago

April 2, 2017

Forex Weekly Outlook April 3-7

The US economy expanded more than previously estimated in the final quarter of 2016, growing at 2.1 percent annualized rated instead of the previously reported 1.9 percent. However, despite a 3.5 percent expansion rate recorded in the third quarter, the total growth in 2016 remains the worst performance since 2011 — plunging to 1.6 percent following a 2.6 percent growth rate recorded in 2015.

Nevertheless, consumer sentiment rose to 96.9 in March, signaling that Americans are less upbeat about the long-term economic outlook. But consumer spending rose less than predicted in February even with the surge in wage growth. Suggesting that surge in inflation (2.1%) may be affecting consumer spending.

Accordingly, Federal Open Market Committee are expected to raise rates further this year to moderate consumer prices and proposed fiscal stimulus by the new administration. This optimism continued to aid the US dollar’s attractiveness against other pairs and bolstered bond market outlook.

In the UK, Prime Minister Theresa May officially triggered article 50 of Lisbon Treaty on Wednesday and stated that refusal of the European Union to accept the terms of the Brexit will have security implications. Compelling the European Union President Donald Tusk to declare on Friday that defense and security won’t be bargaining chips in Brexit negotiations.

In Canada, the Canadian economy expanded by a healthy 0.6 percent in January from December, indicating first-quarter growth will be stronger than expected as the country gradually recovers from the shock of low oil prices. The Canadian dollar improved against the US dollar to 75.24 U.S. cents

Generally, the US economy remains strong and so is the U.S dollar. However, the uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook remains.

This week NZDUSD and AUDJPY top my list

The NZDUSD pair reversed 814 pips after dropping 2640 pips to 0.6195 in 2015. This reversal has carved out a wedge pattern not only to affirm that the temporary bullish trend is waning but also to ascertain bearish continuation.

Similarly, the aforementioned correlates with our February projection that higher exchange rate would affect New Zealand consumer goods as it would have pushed the cost of goods higher and subsequently reduced consumer spending. However, inspite of this bearish view, this pair has traded moderately high against the Reserve Bank of New Zealand call for lower exchange rates.

But with the renewed US dollar’s attractiveness following policy-makers comments on three more rate hikes in 2017. I am expecting this pair to gain bearish momentum as a continuation of the long-term downward trend. A break below the wedge pattern should expose our first support of 0.6892 and sustained break of that level should give us 0.6716 targets.

AUDJPY

Considering Australia’s economic outlook and declining trade surplus that saw trade balance unexpectedly narrowed 61 percent to AUD 1.30 billion January from a downwardly revised AUD 3.33 billion surplus in December, 84.97 exchange rate is high and would hurt consumer spending further if not check. Also, I don’t see the Aussie breaking its 15-month high after dropping below 86.34 support turned resistance.

Technically, this pair has given 435 pips since peaking at 88.16 in February, its 15-month high but after plunging 3041 pips for the past 2 years. I will be treating the new upsurge as a temporary reversal and expect a break below upward trend to open up 82.70 support levels, while a sustained break should expose our target at 80.82 as shown above.

Last Week Recap

CADJPY

Last week positive economic growth (GDP) data aided the Loonie to recover mildly against the Japanese Yen. However, with the price below 85.86, 20-moving average, I remain bearish on this pair and expect a sustained break of 83.11 to open up 80.27 targets as more sellers jump on it. Hence, I will be looking to sell bellow 83.11 support levels.

NZDJPY

Likewise, I remain bearish on this pair as long as 78.83 resistance holds and will be looking to add to my position.

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Samed Olukoya

Is the CEO/Founder of Investors King Limited. A proven foreign exchange research analyst and a published author on Yahoo Finance, Businessinsider, Nasdaq, Entrepreneur.com, Investorplace, and many more. He has over two decades of experience in global financial markets.

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Naira

Dollar to Naira Black Market Today, April 25th, 2024

As of April 25th, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,300 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

Published

6 hours ago

April 25, 2024

Samed Olukoya

Naira to Dollar Exchange- Investors King Rate - Investors King

As of April 25th, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,300 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

For those engaging in currency transactions in the Lagos Parallel Market (Black Market), buyers purchase a dollar for N1,260 and sell it at N1,250 on Wednesday, April 24th, 2024 based on information from Bureau De Change (BDC).

Meaning, the Naira exchange rate declined when compared to today’s rate below.

This black market rate signifies the value at which individuals can trade their dollars for Naira outside the official or regulated exchange channels.

Investors and participants closely monitor these parallel market rates for a more immediate reflection of currency dynamics.

How Much is Dollar to Naira Today in the Black Market?

Kindly be aware that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not acknowledge the existence of the parallel market, commonly referred to as the black market.

The CBN has advised individuals seeking to participate in Forex transactions to utilize official banking channels.

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate

Buying Rate: N1,300
Selling Rate: N1,290

Naira

Dollar to Naira Black Market Today, April 24th, 2024

As of April 24th, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,260 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

Published

1 day ago

April 24, 2024

Samed Olukoya

As of April 24th, 2024, the exchange rate for the US dollar to the Nigerian Naira stands at 1 USD to 1,260 NGN in the black market, also referred to as the parallel market or Aboki fx.

For those engaging in currency transactions in the Lagos Parallel Market (Black Market), buyers purchase a dollar for N1,250 and sell it at N1,240 on Tuesday, April 23rd, 2024 based on information from Bureau De Change (BDC).

Meaning, the Naira exchange rate declined slightly when compared to today’s rate below.

This black market rate signifies the value at which individuals can trade their dollars for Naira outside the official or regulated exchange channels.

Investors and participants closely monitor these parallel market rates for a more immediate reflection of currency dynamics.

How Much is Dollar to Naira Today in the Black Market?

Kindly be aware that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) does not acknowledge the existence of the parallel market, commonly referred to as the black market.

The CBN has advised individuals seeking to participate in Forex transactions to utilize official banking channels.

Black Market Dollar to Naira Exchange Rate

Buying Rate: N1,260
Selling Rate: N1,250

Naira

Nigeria’s Naira Dips 5.3% Against Dollar, Raises Concerns Over Reserve Levels

Published

1 day ago

April 24, 2024

Samed Olukoya

Nigerian Naira depreciated by 5.3% against the US dollar as concerns over declining foreign reserves raise questions about the central bank’s ability to sustain liquidity.

The local currency has now declined for the third consecutive day since the Naira retreated from its three-month high on Friday shortly after Bloomberg pointed out that the Naira gains were inversely proportional to foreign reserves’ growth.

According to data from Lagos-based FMDQ, the naira’s value dropped precipitously, halting its recent impressive performance.

The unofficial market saw an even steeper decline of 6%, extending the currency’s retreat over the past three trading days to a staggering 17%.

Abubakar Muhammed, Chief Executive of Forward Marketing Bureau de Change Ltd., expressed concerns over the sharp decline, highlighting the insufficient supply of dollars in the market.

Muhammed noted that despite a 27% increase in traded volume at the foreign exchange market on Monday, the supply remained inadequate, forcing the naira to soften further while excess demand shifted to the unofficial market.

The dwindling foreign exchange reserves have been a cause for alarm, with Nigeria’s gross dollar reserves steadily declining for 17 consecutive days to reach $32 billion as of April 19, the lowest level since September 2017.

This worrisome trend has raised questions about the adequacy of dollar inflows to rebuild reserves, especially after the central bank settled overdue dollar obligations earlier in the year.

Samir Gadio, Head of Africa Strategy at Standard Chartered Bank, pointed out that while the naira had been supported by onshore dollar selling, the rally was likely overextended.

Gadio warned that the emergence of a dislocation in the market, with domestic participants selling dollars at increasingly lower spot levels was unsustainable and necessitated a correction.

The central bank’s efforts to stabilize the naira have been evident with interventions aimed at improving liquidity.

However, the effectiveness of these measures remains uncertain, particularly as the central bank offered dollars to bureau de change operators at a rate 17% below the official rate tracked by FMDQ.

Analysts, including Ayodeji Dawodu from Banctrust Investment Bank, foresee further challenges ahead, predicting that the naira will likely stabilize around 1,500 against the dollar by year-end.

Dawodu emphasized the importance of stabilizing the currency to attract strong foreign capital inflows, underscoring the significance of sustainable monetary policies in Nigeria’s economic recovery.

As Nigeria grapples with the repercussions of the naira’s depreciation and declining foreign reserves, policymakers face mounting pressure to implement measures that ensure stability and foster confidence in the economy.

The road ahead remains uncertain, with the fate of the naira intricately tied to Nigeria’s ability to address underlying economic vulnerabilities and bolster investor trust.